Historiak eta istorioak erabat desberdinak dira noski, baina beti bezain argigarriak.
Istorioa:
(i) Alan Greenspan (2013) Never Saw It Coming. Why the Financial Crisis Took Economists by Surprise[1]
Finantza krisiak ekonomialariak ustekabean hartu zituen. Greenspan-en iritziz, ‘animal spirits’ kontuan ez hartzean zetzan afera, edo aferaren parte handi bat.
Historia:
(ii) Dirk Bezemer (2009a) ‘No one saw this coming’ – or did they?[2] eta (2009b) “No One Saw This Coming”: Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models[3]
Bezemer-ek frogatu duen bezala, batzuek oso argi aurreikusi zituzten krisia eta haren zergatiak.
Hona izen batzuk eta argitalpenen urteak[4]: Dean Baker (2006), Wynne Godley (2007), Fred Harrison (2005), Michael Hudson (2006[5]), Eric Janszen (2007), Stephen Keen (2006), Jakob Brøchner Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen (2006), Kurt Richebächer (2006), Nouriel Roubini (2006), Peter Schiff (2007) eta Robert Shiller (2006).
Aurreikusi dutenen artean Bezemer-ek Michael Hudson aipatzen du[6].
UEUko heterodoxia bloga 2006an hasi genuen: bertan Hudson-en artikulu askotxo aipatu genituen, tartean “Saving, Asset-Price Inflation, and Debt-Induced Deflation” delakoa. Hortaz, euskaldunok gai izan ginen krisiaren sorreran bertan gertatutakoa eta beronen zioak ezagutzeko[7].
Eta DTMkoek?
a) Aukera bakarra[8]
b) ‘Ikusi zuten[9]’
c) DTMkoek aspaldian abisatu zuten[10]
Eta Euskal Herriko ekonomialariek?
[4] Halaber, ikus Steve Keen (2009) “No-one saw this coming?” Balderdash! (http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-one-saw-this-coming-balderdash/).
[5] Izatez, aipatutako Hudson-en lana 2004an ere eskuragarria zegoen.
[6] M. Hudson (2006), “Saving, Asset-Price Inflation, and Debt-Induced Deflation”, in L. Randall Wray and Matthew Forstater, eds., Money, Financial Instability and Stabilization Policy Edward Elgar, 2006:104-24. (http://michael-hudson.com/2004/06/saving-asset-price-inflation-and-debt-induced-deflation/).
[7] Ikus https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2007/07/01/fire-sua-ote/; https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2007/09/16/fire-sua-ote-inflazioa-langabezia-eta-fire-delakoa/ eta https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2007/10/08/sua-fire-ote-burbuila-finantzarioak/. Halaber, ikus hemen: https://www.unibertsitatea.net/otarrea/gizarte-zientziak/ekonomia/ekonomia-irudietan eta https://www.unibertsitatea.net/otarrea/gizarte-zientziak/ekonomia/fire-sektorea.
[8] ikus https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2013/11/09/dtm-ortodoxiaren-aurkako-aukera-bakarra/.
joseba says:
Financial Times ekonomialari nagusi Martin Wolf-ek (2010: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19da1d26-fa2f-11de-beed-00144feab49a.html) idatzi zuenez:
The crisis in the eurozone’s periphery is not an accident: it is inherent in the system. The weaker members have to find an escape from the trap they are in. They will receive little help: the zone has no willing spender of last resort; and the euro itself is also very strong. But they must succeed. When the eurozone was created, a huge literature emerged on whether it was an optimal currency union. We know now it was not. We are about to find out whether this matters.