(Warren bilobarekin)
eur/usd
(http://moslereconomics.com/2015/03/03/eurusd/)
WARREN MOSLER on March 3, 2015
Warren, euro continue to go down vs usd. Do you think draghi goal is to reach eur/usd 1:1 ?
Good question!
Erantzuna: ikus Euro/dolar trukeaz hitz bi
Segida:
(https://twitter.com/retemmt/status/958695581224001536)
Warren Mosler lo scrisse 3 anni fa (vedi intervista). Politiche monetarie #Draghi (tagli ai tassi e QE) avrebbero rafforzato € il che avrebbe colpito esportatori. Ora sta avvenendo questo e Draghi non si spiega il perché @wbmosle
2018 urt. 31
E Draghi non si spiega il perché
31 gennaio 2018
(http://www.retemmt.it/draghi-non-si-spiega-perche/)
Il 4 marzo 2015 pubblicammo, qui su Retemmt.it, un breve articolo-intervista in cui Warren Mosler spiegava come la politica monetaria di Draghi, fatta di tassi negativi e QE, fondamentalmente rendesse l’euro più forte, mentre Draghi, come gli operatori di mercato, ne ipotizzavano un indebolimento.
Così, mentre Draghi poteva avere come obiettivo un rapporto euro dollaro di 1:1 adottando misure che lui riteneva corrette per quell’obiettivo, con i mercati che credevano a quel risultato, di fatto lui e i mercati avevano cominciato a “caricare una molla”, in quanto sostanzialmente venivano prelevati, piuttosto che aggiunti, euro netti dall’economia globale.
La conclusione a cui perveniva Warren Mosler nel 2015 è che la prossima crisi UE sarebbe potuta avvenire a causa dell’euro forte nel momento in cui si sarebbe apprezzato a un livello tale da colpire le industrie esportatrici UE, con la BCE che proseguiva a fare ancora e ancora QE e a tagliare ulteriormente i tassi, peggiorando sempre di più le cose.
Il 25 gennaio scorso, Reuters batteva la notizia che informava del viaggio fatto da Draghi negli Stati Uniti per manifestare la sua forte preoccupazione per il continuo rafforzamento dell’euro sul dollaro, come risultato della politica monetaria americana che, tra le altre cose, infrangeva un patto non scritto di non belligeranza tra le due valute. Draghi ha affermato che questo processo rischia di uccidere sul nascere il debole risveglio inflazionistico dell’euro, per cui sarebbe stato costretto ad adottare ulteriori politiche monetarie di sostegno all’inflazione.
Conclusione
Draghi brancola nel buio alla ricerca di presunti colpevoli mentre l’Europa cammina probabilmente verso una nuova crisi dovuta alla contrazione delle sue esportazioni.
Segituan Reuters-ko albistea ingelesez:
ECB hits out at Washington for talking down the dollar
January 25, 2018
FRANKFURT (Reuters) – European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi took a swipe at Washington on Thursday for talking down the dollar, a move he said threatened a decades-old pact not to target the currency and might force his bank to change its own policy.
Singling out the euro’s surge as a source of uncertainty, Draghi said any unjustified move could force the ECB to rethink its strategy as a strong currency could put a lid on inflation, thwarting its efforts to lift prices.
He was speaking after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin this week said he welcomed a weak dollar because it was good for U.S. trade, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said “U.S. troops are now coming to the ramparts” in global trade wars.
That sentiment sent the euro to three-year highs against the dollar.
Striking a moderately dovish tone, Draghi also pushed back on rate hike expectations, arguing there was almost no chance of a move this year, even as some investors were betting on a rise as early as December.
But it was his comments on currency that resonnated most from a news conference following the ECB’s regular policy meeting.
“When someone says that basically a good exchange rate is good for exporters and it’s good for the economy and it’s good, that means it’s targeting the exchange rate,” Draghi said when asked about Mnuchin’s comments.
“That agreement (about not targeting the exchange rate), as subtle as you want, has been in place for decades now,” Draghi added.
The ECB is especially sensitive to the euro’s moves as any big rise in the currency could cut into inflation, threatening to reverse the impact of the very stimulus the bank has been providing over the past three years.
The euro had risen, Draghi argued, partly because of ”the use of language in discussing exchange rate developments that doesn’t reflect the terms of reference that have been agreed.
“Several members of the Council expressed concern, and this concern was also in a sense was broader than simply the exchange rate, it was about the overall status of international relations right now,” he said.
But Draghi’s comments that part of the euro’s gain may be related to the bloc’s strong economy, pushed the currency to $1.2538, its highest level since December 2014. Even a suggestion that rate hike expectations were premature, only pushed it back marginally, leaving it up nearly 1 percent on the day.
“If all this were to lead to an unwanted tightening of our monetary policy … then we will have to just think about our monetary policy strategy,” Draghi said, with particular reference to the U.S. statements.
The euro now trades 7 percent higher than in December, when the ECB unveiled its latest economic projections, suggesting some downward pressure on import prices.
Having bought more than 2 trillion euros worth of bonds over the past three years, the ECB has almost single-handedly depressed borrowing costs in the euro zone to kick start growth and lift prices. [1 amerikar trilioi = 1 europar bilioi]
FEW CHANCES
The purchases, already twice reduced, are set to run until the end of September and investors are betting on their end in the fourth quarter.
While Draghi did not shoot down those expectations, he also argued that inflation has yet to show convincing signs of a sustained rise, a message also aimed at tempering expectations for policy tightening.
“Based on today’s data and today’s projection I see very few chances at all that interest rates will be raised this year,” he said.
Draghi also said that work to rework the bank’s policy guidance, flagged in the minutes of the last meeting, has not really started and there was also no discussion about winding down the asset purchase program. (Alegia. QE)
Earlier in the day, in a widely expected decision, the ECB kept its key interest rate deep in negative territory, maintained a pledge to hold rates steady until well after bond buys conclude and promised to continue asset purchases until a sustained rebound in inflation. (Alegia, QE)
While the euro’s gain so far has only a modest impact on inflation, the worry is that weaker economies on the bloc’s periphery would be affected by it more, a risk to an economic convergence process that restarted only recently.
Part of his holding pattern approach, Draghi also kept the bank’s guidance unchanged, maintaining a promise to continue asset buys until a sustained rebound in inflation, even after policymakers agreed in December to begin work in early 2018 to draft a new guidance. (Alegia, QE)
Reporting by Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa; Writing by Mark John Editing by Jeremy Gaunt
Dakienak badaki, ez dakienak baleki!
Izan ere, ikusita daukagu, behin baino gehiagotan Mosler-ek QEz eta Draghi-ren neurriez esan duena:
M. Draghi (EBZ-ko presidentea) eta W. Mosler
QE: Mosler eta Draghi, berriz…
EBZko orakulua (aka Mario Draghi) eta Warren Mosler
QE, Europar Batasuna, inflazioa eta deflazioa…, Schäuble, progreak eta abar
Draghi-ren politika monetarioaren (QE) itxaropenak, gabeziak eta ondorioak
EBZko orakulua (aka Mario Draghi) eta Warren Mosler
Dakienak, gainera, badauka astirik biloba bainatzeko!
