Albistea: Defiant Portugal shatters the eurozone’s political complacency1
Hasierarako, ikus Ezkerra Portugalen2.
Badirudi Portugal austeritatearen aurka arituko dela, detonated in a second country.
Alemaniak inposaturiko diziplina fiskala porrot egiten ari da, malgré Wolfgang Schäuble (eta hemengo progreak)3.
Alderdi sozialistako Antonio Costak ez du onartu langile publikoen mozketa gehiagorik, ezta eskuineko koaliziokoa gobernu bat eratzea ere, gutxienez oraingoz. Alderdi komunistarekin eta Ezkerreko Blokarekin aliantza egin nahi du Costak, Portugal’s ‘Berlin wall moment’: Communists and anti-euro Leftists set for government.
Hori dela eta, Joseph Daul Europako parlamentariak desastrea aipatu du, Indebted Portugal is still the problem child of the eurozone.
Costaren aliatuek Portugaleko lehengo monetara, ezkutura itzuli nahi dute. Greziako eta Tsipras-en esperientzia eta gero, argi daukate4 afera hori
Ezkerreko Blokeko Catarina Martins-ek dioenez,
“… if the Portuguese people have to choose between “dignity and the euro”, then dignity should prevail. “Any government that refuses to obey Wolfgang Schauble must be prepared to see the European Central Bank close down its banks,” she said.”
Greziak erakutsi du EBZren zeregina: Europar Batasunaren arauak betearazteko eragile politiko sendoa5 izatea.
EBko arau fiskalen arabera, Portugalek bere zor publikoa, BPGrekiko, %127tik %60ra moztu behar du hurrengo hogei urteetan, Espainiak, Frantziak, Italiak eta Belgikak bezalaxe.
Portugalentzat, horrek suposatzen du aurrekontu superabit primario bat edukitzea, zeina ez baitago batere ados Ezkerraren agenda ekonomikoarekin.
Costaren beraren proposamenak moderatuagoak dira6. Onartuko ote dituzte proposamen horiek?
EBZ-ren QE eta deflazioa7.
(Gogoratu Warren Mosler-ek QEz8 eta deflazioaz9.)
Europako liderrek uste zuten krisia gaindituta zegoela10. Ez ordea Citigroup-eko William Buiter ekonomialari nagusiak11.
Portugal zor pribatua eta publikoa, batera, BPGren % 370 dira.
Adi hurrengo datuekin:
“The currency bloc is in worse shape on almost every metric than it was before the Lehman crisis. Debt levels are 35 percentage points of GDP higher. EMU-wide unemployment is stuck at 11pc. The credibility of eurozone leadership is in tatters.”
Zer egingo du alderdi sozialistak Portugalen? Ikusiko dugu Syriza-koak baino trebeagoak diren ala ez…
Espainia, Italia eta Frantziako hauteskundeak etorriko dira laster.
Portugalen gertatuko dena ikertuko da Eurolandiako hainbat herrialdetan.
Syrizarekin egondako sasi eztabaidak eta sasi debateak mahai gainean berriz egongo dira: austeritateaz, euroguneaz, defizit publikoaz, EBtik irteeraz (Euroexit delakoaz), eta abar luzeaz…
Ikasiko ote dute inoiz?
1 Ikus http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11946412/Defiant-Portugal-shatters-the-eurozones-political-complacency.html.
4 Ingelesez: “Mr Costa’s hard-Left allies both favour a return to the escudo. Each concluded that Greece’s tortured acrobatics under Alexis Tspiras show beyond doubt that it is impossible to run a sovereign economic policy within the constraints of the single currency.“
5 Ingelesez: “The lesson of the Greek drama is that the ECB is the political enforcer of monetary union, willing to bring rebels to their knees by pulling the plug on a nation’s banking system.”
6 Costa, “… has vowed to “turn the page on austerity”, reverse Troika cuts, roll back labour reform, review the privatisation of public transport and the water works, and launch a 55-point reflation package led by spending on health care and education.”
7 Ingelesez: “The upset in Portugal has caught Europe’s elites off guard. The eurozone is enjoying a cyclical rebound of sorts, driven by the happy trifecta of cheap energy, a cheap euro, and cheap credit. The ECB’s quantitative easing has flushed the system with liquidity though Europe still has one foot in deflation.”
8 Ikus Fed, QE eta aktibo swapak: https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2015/10/14/8630/ eta DTM: sarrera laburra.
9I kus Deflazioaz hitz bi: https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2014/04/02/deflazioaz-hitz-bi/.
10 Ingelesez: “Europe’s leaders thought the crisis was over and believed their own propaganda that Portugal has successfully clawed its way back to safety by adhering strictly to Troika terms. This was always wishful thinking.”
11 Ingelesez: “William Buiter, Citigroup’s chief economist says Portugal has many of the same economic ‘pathologies’ as Greece, with debt ratios already beyond the point of no return, and a fresh solvency crisis almost inevitable in the next downturn.”
joseba says:
Eurozone crosses Rubicon as Portugal’s anti-euro Left banned from power
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11949701/AEP-Eurozone-crosses-Rubicon-as-Portugals-anti-euro-Left-banned-from-power.html