Stephanie Kelton eta defizitak

S. Kelton-en How We Think About the Deficit Is Mostly Wrong

(https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/opinion/deficit-tax-cuts-trump.html)

Zerga mozketa:

With their nine-page “framework,” President Trump and congressional Republicans have turned to tax cuts in a bid to get a victory on their policy agenda. Mr. Trump has promised to deliver “the biggest tax cut in the history of our country.”

‘Ezkerra’ eta ‘eskuina’ ados, herrialde gehienetan bezala:

It achieved a rare feat of bipartisan agreement in Washington — worry from the left and the right about the plan’s potential to increase the deficit. Senator Charles Schumer, Democrat of New York, warned that the plan would deepen the deficit by $5 trillion1 to $7 trillion. Senator Bob Corker, Republican of Tennessee, said, “If I think it adds one penny to the deficit, I’m not going to vote for it.”

Zertarako zerga mozketa?:

Are the proposed tax cuts a huge giveaway to the rich? Most definitely. Will they, as advertised, create a booming economy with benefits that trickle down to everyone else? I don’t think so. Mr. Trump’s plan will widen the country’s already dangerous wealth and income gaps, and because the gains go mostly to those at the very top, the tax cuts won’t do much to promote broad-based consumer spending or overall job growth.

Zerga mozketa eta defizita:

That’s enough to reject the plan. But it would be unwise to oppose tax cuts, or any other federal legislation, simply because they add to the deficit.

Why? Because bigger deficits wouldn’t wreck the nation’s finances. Unfortunately, budgetary effects are the sun around which everything revolves in Washington. Should we invest a trillion dollars in our crumbling infrastructure, offer Medicare for All or pass the biggest tax cut in the country’s history?

Propose any of these, and the first question on everyone’s lips will be, “How are you going to pay for it?” The reason is simple: Lawmakers are obsessed with avoiding an increase in the deficit.

The impulse is so strong that it’s almost Pavlovian. It’s also holding us back. Politicians of both parties should stop using the deficit as a guide to public policy. Instead, they should be advancing legislation aimed at raising living standards and delivering the public investments in education, technology and infrastructure that are critical for long-term prosperity.

Right now, anything ambitious requires a score from the Congressional Budget Office. A “bad” score — one that adds to projected budget deficits — can easily doom good legislation because lawmakers are told that their math doesn’t add up. And that’s a problem.

Gobernuaren gastua eta partida biko kontabilitatea:

Because, actually, the math always adds up. To see why, we have to look beyond the government’s balance sheet. Think of it this way. Government spending adds new money to the economy, and taxes take some of that money out again. It’s a constant churning of pluses and minuses, and their minuses become our pluses.

When the government spends more than it gets in taxes, a “deficit” is recorded on the government’s books. But that’s only half the story. A little double-entry bookkeeping paints the rest of the picture. Suppose the government spends $100 into the economy but collects just $90 in taxes, leaving behind an extra $10 for someone to hold. That extra $10 gets recorded as a surplus on someone else’s books. That means that the government’s -$10 is always matched by +$10 in some other part of the economy. There is no mismatch and no problem with things adding up. Balance sheets must balance, after all. The government’s deficit is always mirrored by an equivalent surplus in another part of the economy.

Politikariak begibakar:

The problem is that policy makers are looking at this picture with one eye shut. They see the budget deficit, but they’re missing the matching surplus on the other side. And since many Americans are missing it, too, they end up applauding efforts to balance the budget, even though it would mean erasing the surplus in the private sector.

Txina, zorrak eta bonoak:

And because there is so much misunderstanding, Americans are vulnerable to nationalist scare tactics that warn of the perils of relying on foreigners to pay our bills. The truth is, there’s no reason to worry about China (or any other entity) refusing to finance our deficits. In fact, we should think of the government’s spending as self-financing since it pays its bills by sending new money into the economy.

When there’s a deficit, some of that new money can be traded in for a government bond. What’s often missed in the public debate is the fact that the money to buy the bond comes from the deficit spending itself.

Gobernua eta bonoen interesak:

What isn’t missed is the fact that the government pays interest on those bonds. Lawmakers are obsessed with this line item in the budget, as if it’s akin to a cable bill that keeps taking a bigger and bigger bite out of your household budget. It isn’t. Unlike a household, the government doesn’t have to trim other parts of its budget to make ends meet. Congress can always create more room in the budget by adding rows or widening the columns to put more resources into education, infrastructure, defense and so on. It is purely a political decision.

Muga errealak:

Of course, there are real limits to what can be done. No country can commit to large-scale infrastructure investment unless it has the available labor, machinery, concrete and steel. Trying to spend too much will cause an inflation problem. The trick is to adjust the budget to make efficient use of the people, factories and raw materials we have.

Ez dute ulertzen, beste hainbat lekutan bezalaxe.

But all of this goes unrecognized on Capitol Hill, where the very words “debt” and “deficit” have been weaponized for political ends. They serve as body armor to politicians who would deny resources to struggling communities or demand cuts to popular programs.

Perhaps no one is more skilled in the dark art of deficit deception than Representative Paul Ryan, the House speaker. He has described the budget outlook as a “fiscal train wreck,” and he has demanded cuts to programs like Social Security and Medicare in the name of protecting future generations from a “crushing burden of debt.” His language is poll-tested and inflammatory by design. It’s intended to create a sense of urgency to move the budget into balance, where, we are told, the math of federal spending will finally “add up.”

In a more rational world, lawmakers would abandon the crude C.B.O. scoring model and recognize that the risk of overspending is inflation, not bankruptcy. They would avoid fruitless battles over the debt ceiling, and they would acknowledge that the deficit itself could be deployed as a potent weapon in the fights against inequality, poverty and economic stagnation.

Stephanie Kelton, a former chief economist for the Senate Budget Committee Democratic staff, is a professor of public policy and economics at Stony Brook University.

Gehigarri batzuk, askoren artean:

Gobernu-defizita? Bai, mesedez!

W. Mosler-ek defizitaz, inflazioaz, gizarte segurantzaz eta osasungintzaz

Defizit hontzak

Defizitak garrantzitsuak dira baina ez jendeak uste duen bezala

Gobernu defizitek ez daukate zer ikusirik bono emisioarekin+

Gobernu defizitei buruzko dogma zaharkituek hiltzen gaituzte

Stephanie Kelton: defizitak eta superabitak

Defizit publikoaz, berriz, hitz pare bat

Defizitak eta superabitak: beste behin, just in case…

Defiziten afera gobernuak moneta jaulkitzaileak direnean

Moneta jaulkitzaileko gobernua, moneta erabiltzaileko gobernuak, zorra, aurrekontua, defizitak

Aurrekontuak, defizitak, DTM-koen jarrera

Defizitak, diru horizontal eta bertikala, eta bankuak

Sektore balantzeak eta gobernu defizitak

Defizitak, Paul Krugman eta Pavlina Tcherneva

Gobernu defizita = Ez-gobernuko superabita

Warren Mosler-ek merkataritza defizitaz. Nork nori hornitzen dizkio fondoak?

Defizitak askatuko zaituDefizit mitoak (2008ko eskutitza)

Banku zentralak, gobernu defizitak eta zerua bere lekuan


1 Amerikar trilioi bat = europar bilioi bat.

Iruzkinak (2)

  • joseba

    Joe Weisenthal‏ @TheStalwart (https://twitter.com/wbmosler/status/916096024837607424)
    I’m glad @StephanieKelton has been writing these Op-Eds blowing up deficit myths.
    How We Think About the Deficit Is Mostly Wrong
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/opinion/deficit-tax-cuts-trump.html

    Joe Weisenthal‏ @TheStalwart
    Key line: ‘What’s often missed in the public debate is the fact that the money to buy the bond comes from the deficit spending itself.”

    Warren B. Mosler‏ @wbmosler
    Replying to @TheStalwart
    And exactly what I told Alan Rogers, trading manager at Banker’s Trust, in 1977 when asked who would buy the new $2billion of 2 year notes.
    2017 urr. 5

    (Bilioi amerikar bat = Mila milioi europar)

  • joseba

    Stephanie Kelton-ek: defizitak ekonomia modernoan

    Stephanie Kelton -The Angry Birds Approach to Understanding Deficits in the Modern Economy

    Stephanie Kelton -The Angry Birds Approach to Understanding Deficits in the Modern Economy. Dr. Kelton clears up the misinformation on Fed Deficits being told Americans.

    Stephanie Kelton BIO: Kelton studied Business Finance and Economics at the California State University, Sacramento, earning a B.S. and a B.A. in 1995. She received a Rotary scholarship to study Economics at the University of Cambridge, receiving her Master in 1997. On a fellowship from Christ’s College, Cambridge, Kelton then spent a year at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. She obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from The New School in 2001 with her dissertation, “Public Policy and Government Finance: A Comparative Analysis Under Different Monetary Systems. Professor Kelton is also Chair of the Department of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City explains the Bretton Woods System and the end of the Gold Standard in the 1970s, why comparisons to the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe made by austerity promoters are wrong, high inflation does not happen in well-functioning democracies, why we think about the deficit in the wrong way, the smart way to think about the Simpson Bowles austerity plan, the purpose of taxes, Hillary Clinton running on bringing down the debt and addressing the inequality crisis, Social Security and inequality, what Thomas Piketty misses, why labor needs to make a comeback and why fighting inequality must go beyond raising taxes at the top.

    Stephanie Kelton is an Economic Advisor to the Bernie 2016 presidential campaign. She served as Chief Economist on the U.S. Senate Budget Committee (minority staff) and is Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. She was the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of the top-ranked blog New Economic Perspectives and a member of the TopWonks network of the nation’s best thinkers. Her book, The State, The Market and The Euro (2001) predicted the debt crisis in the Eurozone, and her subsequent work correctly predicted that: (1) Quantitative Easing (QE) wouldn’t lead to high inflation; (2) government deficits wouldn’t cause a spike in U.S. interest rates; (3) the S&P downgrade wouldn’t cause investors to flee Treasuries; (4) the U.S. would not experience a European-style debt crisis.

    Stephanie consults with policymakers, investment banks and portfolio managers across the globe. Her research expertise is in: Federal Reserve operations, fiscal policy, social security, health care, international finance and employment policy. Follow her on Twitter @stephaniekelton or at her website http://stephaniekelton.com

    Bideoa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1SMjeuyF-Y&feature=youtu.be

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