Mitchell-en brief comment on the British election
(i) Laboristak kinka larrian bide daude
… the British election is tomorrow and the Tories have been successful in confining the focus to Brexit. My view on the EU and Britain’s decision to exit is well known. Labour should have been leading that process given the majority of their elected MPS come from Leave majority seats. Instead, they gave out a mixed message, with many senior Labour politicians claiming they would vote remain in another referendum. This is despite both major parties guaranteeing to the people in June 2016 that they would implement the vote to leave. The information we have at present is that that position on Brexit is probably going to cost them office. Which means the Tories survive when they should not but finish the Brexit process which they should. Then Labour will have to reinvent itself to take advantage of the renewed sovereignty that Brexit will bring. To do that it has to expunge its ranks of the neoliberals. (…)
(ii) Jeremy Corbyn galduta
I also note that the opinion polls are not foolproof but the consensus as of yesterday was that the Tories will win.
Something weird might happen, but as a statistician, I doubt it.
The Guardian report (December 9, 2019) – Corbyn plays all the old favourites in Bristol but no one’s dancing – was a sadly evocative account of how things have changed for Jeremy Corbyn since the 2017 election.
And as Larry Elliot opined (December 8, 2019) in his article – Economic conditions favour the left, so why is Labour not expected to win with ease? – everything about Britain at present should have given the Labour Party a massive shoe-in majority.
Except one thing.
(iii) Brexit-ekiko jarrera da erabakitzailea
I have been making the point regularly, see – Impending British Labour loss may reflect their ambiguous Brexit position (November 28, 2019) – that the Labour Party’s meandering position on Brexit, to satisfy its Europhile urban members, would damage them, given that the majority of their members of parliament were elected by Leave majority constituencies.
Remember all the predictions from the middle-class, cosmopolitan Labour pundits about the City selling off the pound if there was thought of Brexit materialising?
As the polling suggests the Tories will win and Brexit will finally happen, why hasn’t the pound collapsed instead of strengthened?
Seats not votes win elections. It doesn’t matter if the majority of Labour voters are Remainers, if there are spatial disproportionalities in the vote spread.
Both major parties committed to honouring the outcome of the 2016 Referendum. The Labour Party has reneged on that commitment.
The Tories are the Brexit Party and have narrowed the election down to that issue – largely.
They have to do that because, as Larry Elliot says, on every other issue Labour win hands down, given the appalling way the Tories have managed the economy and government.
(iv) Laboristen fiskalitate afera eta Brexit
I have been critical of Labour’s Fiscal Credibility Rule, but most people don’t understand that argument anyway and it is not a factor in the election.
While not a voter in the election, I am very informed of the issues given the flood of information we get in Australia on matters British (ex colony, shared head of state, history, culture, etc guarantee that).
My perception is that the Tories have been fairly successful in the campaign in keeping the focus on Brexit.
And in doing so, the typical Labour voters who are also Leavers are feeling disenfranchised by the Labour position on Brexit.
I sense the election tomorrow is really, implicitly, the second vote on Brexit
(v) Laboristen hasiera berria, Brexit gertatuko denean eta gero
And if the Tories win (as they should not), the UK will leave the EU (as it should) and the natural anti-neoliberal Party, Labour will wonder why they are not in office.
They should start with their Brexit position, which will lead them to the Blairites and the cosmopolitans, and that should cause the Party to take action and clean out this element.
They wont and as a consequence will stay out of office while blathering on about fake news, BBC bias and all the rest of it.
And when the UK doesn’t fall into the North Sea after leaving the EU, then it might become clear to them what all this was about.
And good luck to Chris Williamson in Derby North and Claire Jackson-Prior in Sutton and Cheam. Two great candidates.
Ezaguna dugunez, Euskal Herriko sasi-ezkerra erabat galduta egon da, eta oraindik dago!, Brexit (hizki handiz, arren) dela eta.
Ikasiko ote dute inoiz?