Azken sarrerak Grexit dela eta: Soilik Grexit? eta EBZ eta Varoufakis
Albistea: Barclays Warns “Grexit” May Return This Summer While Tsipras “Demonizes” IMF
NMF (aka IMF) dago zorabioaren erdian…: erreskate programa finantzarioak, Europar Batasunaren helburua eurogunea batuta eustea, Greziako beste krisi bat saihestea,…
Alexis Tsipras hasi da NMF sanatizatzen1. NMF ahalegintzen da Greziak pentsio, zerga eta mailegu txarren erreforma gehiago onartzeko2, Alemania eta beraren aliatuak Atenas-en zor mamitsuari dirulaguntza ematera behartuz.
Alemania, hartzekodunik handiena, ez dago ados zor berregituratzearekin3.
Aldatu dena: Alemania, Grezia eta migratzaileen eta errefuxiatuen afera4.
NMF ez dago prest Grezia ‘abandonatzeko’5.
Aipatutako egoera horretan, beste albiste bat azaldu zen: Wikileaks Reveals IMF Plan To “Cause A Credit Event In Greece And Destabilize Europe”6
Uda nahasia?7
Argiguneak:
(a) Grexit itzultzea?8
(b) Diruak agintzen du9
Irtenbidea: hiru hilabetetan. Ikus beheko kronologia.
1 Ingelesez: “… as Reuters adds, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras “exploited the leak at home to demonize the IMF, rally his left-wing Syriza party ahead of more painful sacrifices to secure the next slice of European loans, and try to put his conservative opponents in a corner.””
2 Ingelesez: “Put simply, the IMF’s position is that the Greek economy is in worse shape than rosy EU forecasts suggest, and that a necessary relaxation of fiscal targets must be balanced by greater debt relief from euro zone lenders.”
3 Ingelesez: “Germany, the biggest creditor, is the most reluctant about major debt restructuring. Its parliament insists on a continued IMF presence to enforce budget savings and minimize the need for stretching out loans and freezing interest payments.”
4 Ingelesez: “Ironically, Greece finally has some true leverage over Germany as Merkel is more dependent now on Greece to act as Europe’s gatekeeper than she was during last year’s crisis over a possible “Grexit” from the euro zone. Berlin needs Athens’ cooperation to process and detain migrants and refugees until they can be send back to Turkey. If Greece really wants to flex its muscles, it will simply demand a debt haircut in exchange for keeping refugees within its borders.”
5 Ingelesez: “As for the IMF, it too does not want to abandon Greece as a black mark on its record. “Four of the five euro zone bailouts have gone pretty well – an 80 percent success rate. Yet if the IMF walks away from Greece now, everything they’ve done in Europe will be remembered as a failure,“…”
6 Ikus http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-02/wikileaks-reveals-imf-plan-cause-credit-event-greece-and-destabilize-europe.
7 Ingelesez: “Which brings us to point #2: also last week, we warned “it may be another turbulent summer in Europe” and on Thursday Barclays seems to have agreed with this assessment. This is what Francois Cabau said in a note titled “Greece – Back To The Fore” in which he says that we do not rule out the prospect of “Grexit” returning.”
8 Ingelesez: “We continue to think Greece has the potential to return to the headlines, and we do not rule out the prospect of “Grexit” returning. Our baseline remains that the current government will ultimately remain in power, managing to pass the creditors’ required reforms through Parliament.”
9 Ingelesez: “… the next significant outflows are due in June and July with €750mn due to the IMF and then c.€2.3bn due to the ECB. Therefore, we think Greece is likely to be able to negotiate payments up until June (albeit narrowly and with likely recourse to allowing arrears to rise again). However, the July repayments appear more challenging should further ESM disbursements not be forthcoming.”
