Zipriztin ekonomikoak (29)

Italiaz

Hasierarako, ikus Zipriztin ekonomikoak, Italiaz eta Italia (eta Euskal Herria ere) bidegurutzean

Segida:

(i) Italiako Konstituzioaz

Se non è comprensibile al popolo non è più la nostra Costituzione

(ii) Italia eta politika fiskala

Italy is Hungry for Expansionary Fiscal Policy¹

“In a meeting with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande on August 22, the Italian President Matteo Renzi proudly announced that Italy has the lowest public deficit of the last 10 years, and will continue with structural reforms to reduce it further. Monti has long aimed to “restore credibility” by cutting the public deficit, and now the Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan enjoys praise on his achievement of a deficit as small as 2.4% of GDP. The FED (Financial and Economic Document) goes so far as say this makes Italy “among the most virtuous countries in the Eurozone.”

A closer look at Italy’s economy, however, shows this “virtuosity” has no basis in reality. In 2015, 1.5 million households lived in absolute poverty. Another 4.5 million individuals saw stagnant incomes. The situation has not been this bad since 2005. In addition, the Migrantes foundation informs us that there has been a boom of italians who go abroad, 107,000 in 2015 (+6,2%). Especially youth from 18 to 34 years old (36,7%).
(…)

It is clear that Italy is stuck in a deep depression. And it’s not alone. Many other euro countries are suffering the same fate. Cutting public spending cannot help them recover. We turn to Keynes to see why it cannot, and consult the work of Minsky and Wynne Godley to see what can.

Keynes and Aggregate Demand

(…) After years of austerity and a Global Financial Crises, aggregate demand levels have declined sharply most people feel uncertain about the future. Additional demand for labor is close to zero and the private sector is pessimistic. Investment and spending is not sufficient to employ the unemployed. Cutting down government expenditure is not going to to help. It will simply make it worse.

Minsky and Fiscal Policy

(…)

Minsky’s alternative analysis shows that in case of crisis, a nation needs a “Big Government” (The Treasury Department) and a “Big Bank” (The Central Bank) to step up. These institutions must focus on serving as an “Employer of Last Resort” and a “Lender of Last Resort”, respectively. This way, they can prevent wages and asset prices from dropping further, and tame the market economy. In the Euro-zone, this has not been realized. The Treasury Department is constrained, leaving them unable to reach full employment. Meanwhile, citizens continue suffer under austerity.

Wynne Godley and the Government Budget

Wynne Godley’s sectoral balance approach sheds more light on this Minskyian alternative. He shows the economy consists of two sectors: The government sector, and the private sector (all households and businesses).** The private sector can accumulate net financial assets only if the other sector, government, runs a budget deficit. That is, only if the flows of the government spends more than it receives in taxes. It is impossible for both sectors to run a surplus at the same time.

(…) total spending must equal the total income generated in the production process. So given households’ decisions to consume and given firms’ decisions to invest, there will be involuntarily idle labour for sale with no buyers at current wages, if the government deficit spending is too small to accommodate the net desire to save of the private sector.

What Renzi and Padoan are Really Saying

We can now see what Renzi and Padoan are really congratulating themselves for. Having done nothing to lift a struggling private sector out of the recession, they patting themselves on the back for worsening it’s social and economic situation. Renzi may claim he will go to Brussels to “sbattere i pugni sul tavolo”, but his executives continue to respect the Stability and Growth pact regime, and decrease the deficit further.
From Wynne Godley, we know that further decreasing the government deficit corresponds to further deterioration the private sector surplus. So when the officials say they “need to put public accounts in order,” they are actually saying they will put households and business accounts in dis-order. So when they say that Italy has the lowest budget deficit of the last 10 years, they are actually stating that the government is draining more financial assets from the private sector than it has in a decade.
When they call Italy virtuous for keeping a smallest deficit, they assign virtue to the nation that most effectively perpetuates poverty and social disarray. When Renzi says that his non elected executive “will continue […] the reduction of the deficit for our children and grandchildren”, he is instead telling us that his government is going to reduce the net desire to save of the current population, to keep involuntary unemployment and part-time working levels high and to firmly deteriorate the (net) financial and real wealth of the future generations.
Unless Italy changes its approach and adopts expansionary fiscal policy, it will not serve the well-being of the society and its economy. The main goal of full employment will never be attained and maintained. Work will lack moral and economic dignity, public sector goods will fall short in quantity and quality, and basic human rights will be violated. Not only will policy goals fail to be achieved, they will be even farther out of reach. One thing is certain: either Renzi and his ministers don’t know what they’re doing, or they are doing it in bad faith. I am afraid of it may be both.”

** I do not take into account the foreign sector balance sheet, because the substance of my brief argument won’t be undermined.”

(iii) Matteo Renziz

(a) Italie : l’avenir de Matteo Renzi se jouera le 4 décembre²

(b) Italie: Matteo Renzi peut-il encore remporter le référendum du 4 décembre?³

(iv) Italexit

(c) STIGLITZ: Italy could be the ‘cataclysmic event’ that leads to the fall of the eurozone⁴

(d) L’Italie va quitter la zone euro, prédit Joseph Stiglitz⁵

Ekuadorrez

Hasierarako, ikus Zipriztin ekonomikoak (28) —-> Ekuador

Segida:

(v) Ekuadorreko Banku Zentrala

(A) Pavlina R Tcherneva ‏@ptcherneva⁶

Pavlina R Tcherneva(e)k Bertxiotua Banco Central Ec

Just listened to 1 of the best talks by a Central Banker I’ve heard. @BancoCentral_Ec On the limits of dollarization

Pavlina R Tcherneva(e)k gehitu du,

Banco Central Ec @BancoCentral_Ec

#RetosBancaCentral | También se preocupa por aplicar políticas económicas que permitan promover el crecimiento y la equidad, #DiegoMartínez

2016 urr. 11

(B) Banco Central Ec ‏@BancoCentral_Ec⁷

#RetosBancaCentral | El BCE y la política monetaria en una economía dolarizada ► http://bit.ly/2do06zL 

2016 urr. 11

Diego Martínez Vinueza⁸

Ponencia: “El BCE y la política monetaria en una economía dolarizada”

“La dolarización en el Ecuador significó la pérdida de la capacidad del Banco Central del Ecuador de realizar emisión primaria de dinero, a la vez que impuso nuevos retos para el ejercicio de la política monetaria sin contar con todos sus instrumentos tradicionales. En efecto, la dinámica monetaria en Ecuador se desarrolla al igual que cualquier país a través de la creación secundaria de dinero, pero con la necesidad que los flujos externos abastezcan suficientemente de divisas a la economía interna. Este entorno requiere la implementación de medidas que promuevan la recirculación de la liquidez, impulsen la intermediación financiera y controlen la salida innecesaria de divisas. A esto se agregan diversas iniciativas para atender los efectos externos en el campo monetario y de la balanza de pagos de una economía altamente dependiente de los precios del petróleo que se han reducido de manera importante en los últimos años, sumado a la apreciación del dólar, nuestra moneda de adopción. Estos elementos demuestran que con la dolarización no solo hay espacio para la política monetaria y para un Banco Central, sino que su papel adquiere mayor relevancia frente al ejercicio convencional de un banco central en una economía con moneda propia.”

Eta Paradisua zenaz, alegia, Greziaz, zer esan?

(v) TSIPRAS eta pribatizazioa

Rete MMT ‏@retemmt⁹

#Tsipras procede nell’applicazione programma Trojka come privatizzazione dei beni pubbl: gas, acqua, metropolitana.

2016 urr. 11

Tsipras mantiene le promesse (della Trojka)¹⁰

“Come facilmente prevedibile, il Governo Tsipras procede senza tentennamenti nell’applicazione del programma della Trojka riguardo la privatizzazione dei principali beni pubblici: gas e acqua pubblica e metropolitana di Atene saranno collocati, per la durata di un secolo, in un fondo creato dalla stessa Trojka, che esprimerà anche il presidente dello stesso fondo.

Insieme alla favola di Tsipras si avvia così al capolinea, miseramente, la storiella della “fine della Trojka”, raccontata con enfasi da vari blogger improvvisati “esperti economici” nei giorni (ormai lontani) dell’elezione del nuovo premier greco e del suo ministro Varoufakis.

La realtà riprende con decisione il sopravvento.”

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1 Ikus http://theminskys.org/872-2/.