Greziaz, berriz!

Grezia. Hauteskundeak. Syriza. Euroa. Programa ekonomikoak…

Kazetari batek honelako galdera egin zidan orain dela gutxi:

Ba ote dago arriskurik Grezia eurogunetik kanpo geratzea?

Mehatxuak mehatxu, ez dirudi Syriza-ko liderrek egoera hori planteatzen dutenik.

Izan ere, ez liderrik ezagunenek ezta ekonomialaririk nagusienek ere  ez dute litekeen aukera hori ontzat hartu.

Eta pena da, zeren aipatzen dutena (ikus behean) eta Eurolandiak onartzen eta bultzatzen duena erabat kontrajarriak baitira.

Zer planteatzen dute, bada, Syriza-koek?

Bi testu interesgarri:

a) Todo lo que os están contando sobre la recuperación griega es falso: basta de injerencias1.

b) Yanis Varoufakis: «Grecia no quiere abandonar el euro ni amenazar con hacerlo»2.

Proposamen bat: A Modest proposal for resolving the European crisis3.

Bill Mitchell-ek azken proposamen horri kritika egin dio4, oso gogorra.

Syrizaz eta Greziaz zertxobait aipatua dugu blog honetan:

http://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2015/01/02/syrizaz-eta-greziaz-hitz-batzuk/

http://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2015/01/02/5845/

http://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2015/01/04/atzo-gaur-bihar/

Hortaz?

Greziak badauka beste aukera bat.

Izan ere, badago irtenbide duin, sakon eta erreal bat, Mosler-ek orain dela lau urte proposatutakoa.

Mosler bonoak:

http://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2011/10/09/greziarako-proposamena/

eta

http://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2011/10/11/diru-teoria-modernoaren-irtenbidea-greziarako/

Edo, nahi izanez gero, eurogunetik irtetea:

http://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2011/12/21/eurogunetik-irteteko-estrategia/

Baina Syriza-koak ez dira ausartzen hori planteatzeko. Troikaren aurrean kikildu dira…, nahiz eta ‘proposamen’ berezi bat aurkeztu.

Dena den, oso interesgarria da ikustea zer nolako gomendioak luzatu dizkie greziarrei Troika ia ahalguztidunak. Jende xumea ikaratzeko beste, Greziak eurogunean sufritzen segitzeko eta greziarrek daukaten aukera bakarra ohiko austeritatea izango balitz bezala…

Troikaren aurka Syriza-koek proposatukoak ez dauka funts handirik5. Pena handia, zeren maila intelektualean aukera horrek ez dauka inongo pisurik.

Nire ustez, askoz hobea izango litzateke benetan eurogunetik irteteko planteamendu serio, sakon eta apropos bat egingo balute, sasi-irtenbideak planteatzea baino.

Laster ikusiko dugu politikoki zein pisu izango duen Syrizak datozen hauteskundeetan.

Politikoki irabaztekotan, zer gertatuko da ekonomian?

(Euskal Herrian liluramendu politikoa bide dago Syriza-rekin, lehen Eskoziarekin zegoen antzera, ekonomiari, eta batez ere finantza ekonomiari begirada ausart bat eman gabe. Non ote daude marxistak? Paradisuko linboan? Erabat galduta?)


3 Ikus Varoufakis, Y. and Holland, S. (2011) ‘A Modest Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis’, Policy Note 2011/3, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, 2011. http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/pn_11_03.pdf eta

Varoufakis, Y., Holland, S. and Galbraith, J.K. (2013) ‘A Modest Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis, Version 4.0′, July 2013. http://varoufakis.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/a-modest-proposal-for-resolving-the-eurozone-crisis-version-4-0-final1.pdf.

4 Ikus Options for Europe – Part 73: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=27666.

Hona hemen, ingelesez, Mitchell-ek dioena, laburbilduz:

The aim of the proposal is to ‘resolve the Eurozone crisis’ (…) It is also hard to see how a proposal that involves no fiscal transfers or changes to the Treaty can provide a lasting solution to the mess.

(…) The OMT program thus fails to address the core problem that southern Europe is in depression and the only way out is for budget deficits to expand. The ECB stands ready to buy unlimited government bonds – but only if they have succumbed to a fiscal austerity package that ensures their growth prospects deteriorate even further.”

(…)

“There is no solvency risk for a consolidated government sector – the central bank and the treasury – that only issues liabilities in its own currency. If it issues liabilities (for example, take on debt) – that is denominated in a foreign currency, then insolvency becomes a possibility. In the case of the Eurozone, where there is no fiscal authority, the pecking order is that the member state treasuries are deemed to guarantee their own national central banks which ‘own’ the ECB and which provide lender of last resort facilities to their own banking systems. No fiscal authority backs the ECB but despite all the legal complexities involved in how the national central banks might carry out their lender of last resort duties, the reality is that the ECB is the ultimate lender of last resort in the EMU.

5 Berrirakurri, berriz, Bill Mitchell-en bi aukera: Greece – two alternative views (http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=29778).

5 erantzun “Greziaz, berriz!” bidalketan

  1. Gehigarri luzetxoa:

    Greece – two alternative views
    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=29778

    “Relevant … is the UK Guardian article from yesterday (December 23, 2014) – Syriza’s chief economist plots a radical Greek evolution within the eurozone …
    The article focuses on the “chief economist of Syriza”, the progressive party in Greece which in all likelihood will gain power as a result of the resolution to the current political instability.”
    “The chief economist, with a PhD ot two from Germany, told that Guardian that:
    I am a Marxist … The majority [in Syriza] are … [and] … Alternative approaches to the economy and society have been excluded by the dominant narrative of neoliberalism.
    It is unclear these days what a Marxist actually is…”
    “… Syriza – states – that it is committed to:
    1. Ending “the modern Greek tragedy that the Greek people are living through, with an unprecedented unemployment rate of almost 30% (among young people the unemployment rate is more than 60%!), widespread poverty, over-indebtedness of households, closures of many small shops and businesses and an economic recession that has exceeded 20% of GDP in the past five years”. Good, about time the polity cared.
    2. Abolishing “the memoranda signed with the Troika of lenders when it assumes office and will re-negotiate the loans.” Essential.
    3. Promoting “a programme of social and economical reconstruction, aiming at development that promotes human needs and well-being and respects nature.” Essential.
    4. Denouncing “the dominant extreme neoliberal and euro-atlantic policies and believes that they must and can be transformed radically in the direction of a democratic, social, peaceful, ecological and feminist Europe, open to a socialist and democratic future”. Essential.”
    “He says that Syriza will:
    … make concerted efforts to help those hardest hit by the crisis – free electricity for Greeks who have had supplies cut off, food stamps distributed in schools, healthcare for those who need it, rents covered for the homeless, the restoration of the minimum wage to pre-crisis levels of €750 a month and a moratorium on private debt repayments to banks above 30% of disposable income. “
    “ (but)… the overwhelming fact is that the Greek public deficit has to rise substantially – by multiples of the current Stability and Growth Pact fiscal limits of 3 per cent.
    Running a fiscally-neutral policy to help people will only partially stimulate overall spending in the nation. The reality is that Greece needs a public stimulus that is way beyond anything that is allowed under the current rules.
    Okay, then the Greeks can fix that in a single decision – leave the Eurozone and restore currency sovereignty.
    But here is the twist.
    He told the Guardian that:
    Everything we will do is in the context of staying in the eurozone … nobody believes all this talk about Grexit any more. [Angela] Merkel herself has said it is impossible for any country to leave.”
    “Does Greece have the political clout in Brussels to change the overall Eurozone Groupthink from a harsh neo-liberalism to something different, more in keeping with the motherhood ambitions articulated above?
    Answer: definitely not! The cornerstones of the monetary union, which makes it unworkable include the lack of currency sovereignty, the fiscal rules embodied in the Stability and Growth Pact and the related Fiscal Compact and other protocols (six and two packs), and the straitjacket imposed on the European Central Bank.
    Will Greece be able to budge any of them? Highly unlikely, read – no way.
    Can a nation prosper within the Euro system of constraints? For a time, but not in any sustained way.””
    “So reading the narrative in one way leads to the conclusion that any commitment to stay within the monetary union is equivalent to madness and would certainly preclude the achievement of the stated aims articulated above.”
    “In my upcoming book on the Eurozone (….), I make the point that there are two essential steps a Member State has to take to restore sustainable prosperity:
    1. Exit the Eurozone and restore currency sovereignty; and
    2. Abandon neo-liberal principles with respect to the conduct of economic policy.
    One without the other will not work.”
    “So if Syriza wins power and embarks on a policy structure that would work then they would breach the fiscal rules of the monetary system that they want to remain in.”
    “Whatever the people of Greece might desire, their reality is that the private bond markets or the Troika are the dominant force for as long as Greece retains the euro as their currency.”
    “The chief economist said that this would put “the problem of public debt on a pan-European level, proposing the extension of maturities on bonds held by the ECB”.
    It might.”
    “Essentially, Syriza is calling for a 1953 London Debt Agreement-style solution. The chief economist told the Guardian that:
    More than 50% of Greek debt needs to be written off … The solution [of debt forgiveness] that was given to Germany at the London conference in 1953 is what we must do for Greece.”
    “…. I am guessing the left-wing in Greece doesn’t want to be singled out as the party or coalition that brought Greece out of Europe and plunged it back into the dark ages again.
    But the economists on the left also must know that they cannot achieve their clear aims to abandon neo-liberalism and revitalise the nation while they are bound by the fiscal rules and do not have currency sovereignty.
    So the solution to that imbroglio would appear to be clear. Take power, create havoc with threats of default, increased deficits, renegotiations of existing pacts with the Troika so that a big nation like Germany finds it politically impossible to remain part of the deal.
    It would be much easier for Greece, if Germany, for example, pulled the pin on the deal rather than the other way around.”
    (“…) this alternative is, for me, the only convincing explanation of what is going on at present in Greece. I will stand corrected if they get elected and betray their voters.
    The Guardian notes that:
    Ultimately, Syriza’s biggest challenge may not be Angela Merkel but the tortuous road it will have to take not to betray those who so want to see it in power.
    We will see.”

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