Ezagutu al zenuen Z planaz ezer? Zergatik? Nortzuek jakin zuten?
Jakin ote zuten ezer Z planaz hemengo politikariek? Ekonomialariek? Kazetariek? Intelektualek?
Zergatik ez dira gardenak izan EBko goi-politikariak? Zer ezkutatu nahi zuten? Zeri zioten beldur?
Nor da nor? Nortzuk dira EBn agintzen dutenak?
Azken finean, zer dakigu, benetan, EBz?
Azken hauteskundetan, zer dela eta hitz egin da hain gutxi EBz? Beraren bilakaera historikoaz eta beraren etorkizunaz?
Ez dakigu EB zertan datzan? Ez dugu ardurarik EBz?
Goazen zenbait datu ematera…
1. Mario Draghi-k Zero Hedge-koei emandako erantzuna: Ez dago B planik eurorako
2013ko apirilean.
Galdera (Zero Hedge-koek): Baldin eta Greziako edo Espainiako egoerak are gehiago txartzen badira, eta behartuta badaude edo nahi badute euro-gunetik irteteko, ba ote dago plan bat merkatuek gainbehera ez jotzeko? Ba ote dago egiturazko plan bat, egiturazko segurtasun sare bat, bereziki deribatuen arloan?[1]
Erantzuna (M. Draghi-k): Ez dago B planik[2].
Bigarren galdera: Zer gertatuko zitzaiokeen Zipreko ELA[3] delakoari, baldin eta herrialdeak Eurogune uztea erabaki izan balu?
Erantzuna: Ez dago B planik[4].
2. EBZ-ko buruak gezurra esaten die Zero Hedge-koei
2014ko maiatzean.
M. Draghi-k gezurra esan zuen[5].
Europak plan bat zeukan: “plan in place so that the markets don’t basically collapse.”
Baina ez zen Draghi-k aipatutako B plana. Alfabetoaren beste letra bat zeukan planak.
Financial Times-ko Peter Spiegel-i esker[6], badakigu orain dela urte bete edo, Europaren boterearen mito gordetzeko, hau da, ez zutela aurreikusten ezta euro-gunearen haustura potentzial bat ere, Draghi-k gezurra esan zuela.
Izan ere, plan bat egon zen: Z plana.
3. Merkel negarrez
Bai, gelan zeuden jende guztiek ikusi zuten nola Angela Merkel hasi zen negarrez[7].
Euro-guneko krisiaren historia idatziko denean, 2011ko azken egunetatik 2012ra doan tartea gogoratuko da Europako proiektua betiko aldatzen duten hilabeteak bezala:
“Strict budget rules were made inviolable; banking oversight was stripped from national authorities; and the printing presses of the European Central Bank would become the lender of last resort for failing eurozone sovereigns.”
Euroaren krisia Grezian hasi zen[8].
Grexit eta Merkel[9].
Eurogunetik Grezia irteteko erreferenduma geldiarazi behar zuten…
AEB krisia geldiaraztekoaren alde zegoen firewall, suebaki, baten bidez[10].
EBZ-ren rola[11] eta Berlin[12].
Obama presidentea[13].
Baina plan hori ez zen onartu eta “Now, with no new firewall in place, it was unclear what would save the euro.”
4. Europako Z planaren barruan
Euroa ‘salbatzea’ zen helburua.
Grezia euro-gunetik litekeen irteera aztertu zen isilpeko estrategiaren barruan, Z plan izenekoa zen afera.
Spigel-ek analizatu du estrategia sekretu hori Financial Times-en[14].
Z plana[15]. Grexit[16]. Hasiera 2012an zen[17].
Nor da nor?[18]
Sekretuzkoa zen afera[19], non arazo ‘tekniko’ guztiak analizatu baitziren.
Z plana ez da inoiz martxan jarri, zeren Syriza taldea ez baitzen garailea atera hauteskundeetan.
5. Euroa erortzen bada, Europa erortzen da
If the euro falls, Europe falls[20].
Washington-ek jokatutako rola:
“Washington had been advocating an ECB-backed “firewall” almost since the start of the crisis, arguing that the Federal Reserve had proved indispensable to quelling the US banking panic.”
EBko aurrekontu muga estuak estatu desberdinen Konstituzioetara igaroz, euro-guneko fondoak Europako bankuetarako erabiliko ahal dira, Draghi-ren rola garrantzitsua izanik:
“In December [2012] Ms Merkel won agreement for a “fiscal compact” requiring all eurozone countries to write the EU’s tough budget rules into national constitutions. And two weeks after the fight in Los Cabos she struck a deal that would mark the biggest shift in sovereignty since the euro’s creation: in exchange for allowing common eurozone funds to rescue failing European banks, oversight and liquidation of those institutions would move from national to EU control. In both initiatives, she found an energetic partner in Mr Draghi.”
6. Plan Z eta Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge-koek P. Spiegel-ek egindako eta argitaratutako zenbait lan erabili dituzte[21] informazio gisa.
Ez ziren konformatu Draghi-k haiei emandako erantzunekin.
Kazetariek egindako lanarekin poztu ziren[22].
Gardentasuna?
Antzerkiak aurrera jarraitu zuen, sarkasmoa eta guzti[23], eta isilpekoa gorde zen.
Firewall delakoak lan egin zuen, Grexit alboratu zen (zuten!)
7. Beraz?
Grezia eta euro-guneaz, zer esan?
Zero Hedge-koek diotenez,
“Ez dago ezer konponduta. 2012ko egoerak zutik dirau. Denboraren kontua da berriz antzeko egoera gertatzea edo are txarragoa[24].”
Zergatik aurreikuspen ‘ezkor’ hori?
Zero Hedge-koek argi daukate erantzuna:
“Because as noted above, absolutely nothing that caused the European crisis in the first place has been resolved or fixed: there have been no reforms, no hard decisions, no changes in ruinous behavior – in fact it has all been kicked into the lap of the world’s central bankers, from Bernanke to Yellen, to Draghi.”
Hitzak oso gogorrak dira, baina kazetarien lana antzerki txar horren barneko gezurrak aipatzea da, inongo dudarik gabe:
“And while Merkel and her ilk may do everything in her power to usurp democracy and give power into the hands of a handful of drunk with power bureaucrats, we, hopefully not alone but the outlook is not so good, will continue to expose these central-planning charlatans, these naked emperors drunk on their own hubris, for the liars the really are.”
Geure aldetik, EB-ren eraketa izan den desastrea behin eta berriz aipatu dugu. Are gehiago, ETB-ko Azpimarra programan[25] salatu nuen moduan, tragedia hutsa, drama izugarri bat da EB.
Drama horretan, eta Greziari dagokionez, nortzuk ziren nagusi?
Bill Mitchell-ek Grexit delakoaz[26] dioenez:
“… the Germans didn’t want Greece to take [the exist], given the exposure of the German (and French) banks to the Greek government debt.”
[2] Honela dio, ingelesez: “Well you really are asking questions that are so hypothetical that I don’t have an answer to them. Well, I may have a partial answer. These questions are formulated by people who vastly underestimate what the Euro means for the Europeans, for the Euro area. They vastly underestimate the amount of political capital that has been invested in the Euro. And so they keep on asking questions like: “If the Euro breaks down, and if a country leaves the Euro, it’s not like a sliding door. It’s a very important thing. It’s a project in the European Union. That’s why you have a very hard time asking people like me “what would happened if.” No Plan B.”
[3] ELA: Emergency Liquidity Assistance, 10 bilioi euro inguruan.
[4] Ingelesez: “The second question was about the ELA, but again it’s related to “if Cyprus leaves” and again we don’t have that in mind, so…. No Plan B.”
[5] Ikus http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-15/when-head-european-central-bank-lies-zero-hedge-record-presenting-europes-plan-z.
[6] Ikus http://www.ft.com/intl/indepth/how-euro-was-saved. http://podcast.ft.com/pop_up_player.php?pid=2188. http://video.ft.com/3567899112001/How-the-euro-was-saved/world. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0ac1306e-d508-11e3-9187-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz32hz958fF.
[7] Ikus http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f6f4d6b4-ca2e-11e3-ac05-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz32qti2PSt.
[8] Ingelesez: “Eurozone bond markets, which had briefly rallied after the Greek debt restructuring was agreed, sold off in a panic. Yields on Greece’s benchmark 10-year bond spiked by 16.2 per cent in a single day. More worryingly, borrowing costs for bigger eurozone governments began to approach levels where others had been forced into bailouts: yields on Italy’s 10-year bond jumped to more than 6.2 per cent.”
[9] Ingelesez: “For her . . . a key issue was whether the Greeks themselves wanted to be in or out, and if there would have been a referendum and the Greeks would have decided that they want out, that would have made the path easier.”
[10] Ingelesez: “… Mr Obama opened the session with something different. He had a new plan to increase the size of the eurozone firewall…” (…) “Since the outset of the crisis, Paris and Washington had almost identical recipes for solving it: a firewall of such size that no bond trader would question whether the eurozone had sufficient funds or political will to rescue the heavily indebted south.”
[11] Ingelesez: “… the most obvious source for that firewall was the ECB, which literally has the power to print money. The US had demonstrated the crisis-fighting power of a central bank when the Federal Reserve bought up huge tracts of Treasuries in the wake of Lehman Brothers’ collapse. But Berlin has long opposed using a central bank to fund governments.”
[12] Ingelesez: “ German opposition was rooted in its dark history: the hyperinflation of the interwar years that helped doom the Weimar Republic had been caused, in part, by central bank printing presses, which churned out marks to pay war reparations. At German insistence, the ECB had been modelled after the Bundesbank, which was given complete independence from meddling politicians when it was established in the 1950s, to avoid a repeat of the 1920s. The German government also demanded that the EU’s 1992 Maastricht treaty, which laid the foundations for the euro’s creation, bar the ECB from buying sovereign bonds.”
[13] Ingelesez: “…Our preference in the US is that the ECB should act a bit like the Federal Reserve…”
[14] Ikus http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0ac1306e-d508-11e3-9187-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz32qti2PSt.
[15] Ingelesez: “Unbeknown to almost the entire Greek political establishment, however, a small group of EU and International Monetary Fund officials had been working clandestinely for months preparing for a collapse of Greece’s banks. Their secret blueprint, known as “Plan Z”, was a detailed script of how to reconstruct Greece’s economic and financial infrastructure if it were to leave the euro.”
[16] Ingelesez: “The plan was drawn up by about two dozen officials in small teams at the European Commission in Brussels, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt and the IMF in Washington. Officials who worked on the previously undisclosed plan insisted it was not a road map to force Greece out of the euro – quite the opposite. “Grexit”, they feared, would wreak havoc in European financial markets, causing bank runs in other teetering eurozone economies and raising questions of which country would be forced out next.”
[17] Ingelesez: “But by early 2012, many of those same officials believed it was irresponsible not to prepare for a Greek exit.”
[18] ingelesez: “With most of the world’s economic leadership flying to Los Cabos, Mexico, for the annual Group of 20 summit the same weekend as the Greek vote, a small group of top EU officials stayed at their desks in case Plan Z had to be activated. They were led by Olli Rehn, EU economic commissioner, who cancelled his flight to Mexico to stay in Brussels. Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank chief, remained in Frankfurt and Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who headed the eurogroup of finance ministers, was also on call.”
[19] Ingelesez: “…no single Plan Z document was ever compiled and no emails were exchanged between participants about their work. “It was totally fire-walled even within [the institutions],” said the official. “Even between the teams there was fire-walling.”…”
[20] Ikus http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b4e2e140-d9c3-11e3-920f-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz32hz958fF.
[21] Ikus http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-15/when-head-european-central-bank-lies-zero-hedge-record-presenting-europes-plan-z.
[22] Ingelesez: “We are happy to report that Zero Hedge is the first media outlet that Mario Draghi has very publicly, officially, and on the record, lied to.”
[23] Ingelesez: “Sarcasm aside, what is truly pathetic is that while Zero Hedge was doing what it can to expose the truth, a truth which would (…) cost Germans billions if not trillions, none other than German Chancellor Angela Merkel did everything in her power to keep it hidden and a secret from her own voters.”
[24] Ingelesez: “As for Greece and the Eurozone? Well, nothing has been fixed, and Draghi managed to bluff the bond vigilantes under the table for a year or two, but the reality is that since 2012 Europe’s debt has soared even more to even greater all time highs. And it is just a matter of time before it all collapses once again. Only this time the cost from Eurozone collapse to the German people will be far, far greater than it would have been even in 2012.”
joseba says:
Inside Europe’s Plan Z:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0ac1306e-d508-11e3-9187-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz32qti2PSt
Plan Z was never used. Mr Tsipras’s Syriza party finished second, allowing Greece’s mainstream parties to form an uneasy coalition that eventually agreed to stay the bailout course
joseba says:
If the euro falls, Europe falls:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b4e2e140-d9c3-11e3-920f-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz32hz958fF
“In retrospect, it marked [in 2012] the beginning of the final turning point in the crisis. Three months after the testy exchange, Ms Merkel would give her tacit endorsement to an equally ambitious bond-buying scheme designed by another Italian technocrat, ECB president Mario Draghi. This would end the existential crisis that had faced the euro for more than three years.
That plan – unveiled after ECB staff spent a furious summer constructing the system following Mr Draghi’s declaration he would do “whatever it takes” to ensure the euro’s survival – has long been hailed as the coup de grâce of the eurozone crisis.
Yet Mr Draghi’s programme was unlikely to have quelled markets without Ms Merkel’s acquiescence, which was given despite the public objections of the powerful German Bundesbank. This was the quiet political victory that proved to be the linchpin of the ECB’s success.”
Mario Draghi: The ECB will do “whatever it takes” to save the euro:
http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/mario-draghi-save-the-euro-535050-Jul2012/
joseba says:
If the euro falls, Europe falls:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b4e2e140-d9c3-11e3-920f-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz32hz958fF
(i) When Mr Draghi took the ECB helm in November 2011, the bank resembled a foreign outpost in enemy territory. The German public, never enthusiastic about bailouts, were outright hostile towards Mr Trichet’s bond-buying
(ii) At the ECB, discussions about how to stop the panic intensified. But even those close to Mr Draghi were taken by surprise when, at the end of July, he said the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to prevent euro break-up
(See Mario Draghi: The ECB will do “whatever it takes” to save the euro: http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/mario-draghi-save-the-euro-535050-Jul2012/)
(iii) When Mr Draghi unveiled the final version of his plan in September, the political winds had shifted in Berlin. Having secured her banking union, Ms Merkel gave the Draghi plan her public blessing. Speaking the day after Mr Draghi’s announcement, she highlighted the prerequisite of economic reform. “Conditionality is a very important point,” she said. “Control and help… go hand in hand.”
Europe’s debt crisis was over.
Two years on, it is clear the frantic, improvised actions of the final year of the crisis saved the euro (http://video.ft.com/3567899112001/How-the-euro-was-saved/World). Yet the eurozone is far from full health. Debt levels in Europe’s south are extreme. Unemployment remains near historic highs, a side effect of the bitter medicine imposed by the crisis-fighters. Anti-EU parties may be the beneficiary of the fallout in next week’s European elections. But the 15-year-old currency union passed its most important test: in its darkest hour, its leaders did whatever it took to hold it together.
“I have chosen for Europe and the euro, and thus for Greece,” Ms Merkel said near the end of the crisis. “If the euro falls, then Europe falls.”