Palestine, mon amour! (11)

PalMedia@PalBint

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Ilhan Omar@IlhanMN

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Ben Schmeeckle@BSchmeeckle

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Ahsan@M_AhsanAkram

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Saman Ahsan @SamanAhsan

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Palestine Highlights@PalHighlight

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Glenn Diesen@Glenn_Diesen

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Scott Ritter@RealScottRitter

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North Korea Goes Ballistic

Author

Scott Ritter, Washington

Editor

Ronan Kavanagh

GAS-photo/Shutterstock

Over the course of the past decade, North Korea has developed a robust indigenous ballistic missile production capability that has produced a wide range of advanced weapons systems, including short-range, intermediate-range, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched missiles and — most recently — hypersonic missiles. When armed with nuclear weapons, these missiles present a credible deterrent to potential regional adversaries, including the US, South Korea and Japan. Although the principle of mutually assured destruction precludes North Korea from implementing a policy of preemptive nuclear attack, advances in missile technology, when combined with new North Korean satellite surveillance capabilities, give Pyongyang a conventional strike capability that could most likely defeat existing US ballistic missile defenses. The US and its regional partners must now factor in the possibility of a debilitating North Korean preemptive attack that could alter the strategic balance of power in ways never envisioned by the West.

North Korea has made some significant progress with its missile program in recent months. On Jan. 14, it conducted a test launch of a two-stage intermediate-range, solid-fuel ballistic missile loaded with a hypersonic maneuverable controlled warhead. The purpose of the test was to verify the operational characteristics of the warhead and the reliability of the solid rocket engines, believed to be comprised of the first two stages of the North Korean Hwasong-18 three-stage solid-fueled ICBM.

Then, on Mar. 20, North Korea conducted a static test of a second-stage rocket motor intended for use on the Hwasong-16B hypersonic missile. This test was intended to confirm the performance of its second stage. Unlike a conventional ballistic missile, which uses the characteristics of parabolic motion defined by the impact of the earth’s gravity on an object to reach a designated target (often at velocities that are many times the speed of sound), a hypersonic missile uses the power of its propulsion system, independent of gravitational forces, to achieve speeds in excess of five times the speed of sound (the lower limit of what can be classified as hypersonic speed).

This was followed, on Apr. 2, by the launch of a Hwongsong-16B intermediate-range missile equipped with the hypersonic maneuverable controlled warhead that had been flight tested on Jan. 14. This missile used the solid rocket booster of the Hwongsong-18 ICBM, the hypersonic-capable second stage that had been static tested on Mar. 20, and the new maneuverable warhead which, when combined, gives North Korea an operational intermediate-range hypersonic missile capability.

Impressive Accomplishment

While the US and South Korea have questioned some of the performance characteristics cited by North Korea regarding the test of the Hwasong-16B, the fact is that the rapid pace of the testing involved, and North Korea’s ability to seamlessly integrate systems into an operational platform, is an impressive accomplishment — indeed, so impressive that one must question whether North Korea received outside assistance from either Russia, China or both. Although North Korea had previously tested an intermediate-range hypersonic missile in 2021, that system used liquid fuel. Liquid fuel, because of its highly corrosive nature, cannot be loaded onto a missile airframe until just before the missile is to be launched. This increases the reaction time of the weapon and makes it vulnerable to detection and interdiction during the fueling process. Solid-fueled missiles can be launched without any advance preparation, increasing the threat posed by such weapons and their survivability on a modern battlefield.

North Korea has, over the course of more than a decade, developed an array of ballistic missile capabilities, including short-, intermediate- and intercontinental-ranged systems, as well as missiles that can be launched from submarines. The primary threat posed by these missiles against any potential adversary, such as the US, Japan and South Korea, is their role as a delivery vehicle for a North Korean nuclear weapon.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability, however, is widely acknowledged to be part of a larger policy of deterrence, as opposed to representing a first-strike capability. North Korea is certainly aware of the nuclear capabilities of the US, and the reality that any use of nuclear weapons by North Korea would result in a nuclear response that would effectively destroy it as a viable nation state. The mutually assured destruction aspect of this balance of power is intended to forestall any non-nuclear first strike by the US and its regional allies intended to “decapitate” the North Korean leadership, something the US and South Korea have not only announced is part of their range of military options regarding North Korea, but one that is also regularly tested in joint training exercises.

Balance of Power

The development of an operational intermediate-range hypersonic missile capability by North Korea changes this balance of power dramatically. The ability to launch on short notice a weapon system than can reach its target in minutes, while evading existing ballistic missile defense systems, when combined with North Korean satellite surveillance capabilities that allow for rapid target identification, gives North Korea the ability to launch its own conventional preemptive strike. Such a strike, if carried out against airfields, ports, and command and control facilities, could cripple US, South Korean and Japanese military capabilities prior to a possible invasion of South Korea. North Korea’s nuclear arsenal would prevent a US nuclear response, creating a possible scenario where North Korea could defeat US and South Korean forces on the Korean peninsula.

The US has downplayed the threat posed by North Korea’s missiles — including its new hypersonic weapon — citing the ballistic missile defense capabilities that it has in the region, alongside those of South Korea and Japan. The ballistic missile defense architecture that the US has deployed in the region includes advanced ground-based radars, including the AN/TPY-2 X-band radar, and the most modern missile interceptors in the US arsenal, including the THAAD and Patriot 3. These systems are joined by Aegis-equipped navy vessels from both the US and Japan, with advanced S-band radars and modern SM-3 missile interceptors. These systems are linked into a global ballistic missile defense architecture that incorporates satellites and other technologies to provide the US, South Korea and Japan the ability to detect any North Korean missile launch, track the missile inflight and destroy it before it can reach its intended target.

Mideast Missile Lessons

The problem with the US posture is that the recent missile attack by Iran on Israel has shown the ballistic missile defense architecture that the US is relying on for the defense of the Korean peninsula and surrounding region to be fallible. In Israel, the US deployed a ballistic missile defense architecture that incorporated all the systems it has available in South Korea, Japan and the surrounding regions. The Israeli architecture was further reinforced by an extensive ballistic defense shield jointly developed by the US and Israel.

The number of Iranian missiles getting through the missile shield to strike targets inside Israel is undetermined at this juncture, but more than the five officially acknowledged.

The Iranian missiles — although a generation removed from the new North Korean hypersonic missile — employed maneuvering warheads and warheads equipped with decoys to foil the US-Israeli ballistic missile defense architecture. US military planners, and those of its allies that rely on US missile defense systems for their protection, must re-evaluate operational assumptions premised on the notion of protection that cannot be guaranteed.

Scott Ritter is a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer whose service over a 20-plus-year career included tours of duty in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control agreements, serving on the staff of US Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf during the Gulf War and later as a chief weapons inspector with the UN in Iraq from 1991-98. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.

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