Eskozia, Britainia Handia (UK) eta Europar Batasuna (aka Europar Distopia)…
Eskozia independentea, non kokatuko da?, nora jo? zein baldintzatan?
Ronald MacDonald: ordodoxia defendatzen duen irakaslea, ospetsua omen. Ez dauka zer ikusirik DTM-rekin (MMT, aka Modern Money Theory)…
Hona albisteak:
(i) Nicola Sturgeon’s economic plan will ‘BANKRUPT independent Scotland’, top economist warns
NICOLA STURGEON’s economic plan will lead an independent Scotland to bankruptcy, the country’s foremost macroeconomist has warned.
By MARTINA BET
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has previously said her government will propose the timescale and question for a second referendum on Scottish independence by next spring. Ms Sturgeon claimed challenges of the coronavirus pandemic will act as an accelerant rather than as a brake on the Scottish National party (SNP)’s ambitions. The SNP leader pledged that by next spring her government would publish a draft bill for an independence referendum, which would set out “clearly and unambiguously to the people of Scotland” both the question to be asked and the timing of the vote.
The question would be subject to appropriate testing by the Electoral Commission, and the timescale would be “within the next term of Scottish Parliament”, which lasts until 2026 after elections next year, and also “taking account of the development of the COVID-19 pandemic at the time of publication”.
She added that at next May’s Holyrood elections – in which the SNP are already predicted to win a majority as support for independence continues to rise – her party will make the case for Scotland to become “an independent country, and seek a clear endorsement of Scotland’s right to choose our own future”.
Since the start of 2020, opinion polls have given “Yes” campaigners a consistent lead over their unionist rivals.
One recent survey predicted a total reversal of the 2014 referendum result — 55 percent in favour of separation, versus 45 percent against.
In an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk, though, Ronald MacDonald, research professor of macroeconomics and international finance at Glasgow University’s Adam Smith Business School, argued Ms Sturgeon’s independence bid is incredibly dangerous for Scotland.
Mr MacDonald claimed that under her economic plan, an independent Scotland would almost immediately go bankrupt.
He explained: “The underlying deficit has not changed too much since last year.
“It went up by half a percent, I think.
“That is not a sustainable deficit in itself. It is about 8.6 percent.
“So they [the SNP] have argued in the Growth Commission report that they could handle that by having higher growth if they were independent.
“But they haven’t said how they are going to get it.
“Of course, on top of that you have the coronavirus crisis, which means the deficit going forward. It will probably be somewhere in the 20 percent region or even 30 percent.
“That’s a huge deficit1.”
The First Minister‘s argument, the macroeconomist noted, seems to be that she can do what other governments are doing, which is to borrow heavily on financial markets at relatively low interest rates.
However, Mr MacDonald claimed there is a huge problem with that.
He continued: “Their strategy for an independent Scotland is to have a relatively long transition period where they continue to use sterling.
“Borrowing in a foreign currency is a very dangerous strategy, particularly if you are borrowing the kind of sums of money they are talking about.
“The reason for that is that if you adopt sterlingisation that is a form of a rigidly fixed exchange rate.
“The UK has a flexible exchange rate. It means that when you get a shock to the economy, you have some means to adjust the economy to that.
“By adopting the currency of another country you really are fixing your currency against that currency. And you have got no means of adjustment.
(Gogoratu: Eskoziak bere moneta propioa jaulkiko balu, afera horiek guztiak desagertuko lituzke. Horretarako, alta, DTM (MMT, Modern Money Theory) jakin behar da, nahita ez!)
(ii) Nicola Sturgeon humiliated: SNP’s currency plan ridiculed by top economist
NICOLA STURGEON’s plan to retain use of sterling in the early years of independence, rather than introduce a new currency, has been torn apart by the country’s most eminent macroeconomist in an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk.
By MARTINA BET
Ahead of Scotland’s 2014 independence referendum, the Scottish National Party (SNP) tried to reassure voters by citing a resurgent economy, a relatively modest budget deficit and the prospect of free trade with both the UK and the EU. However, things look very different now. Brexit means that an independent Scotland in the EU — the SNP government’s goal — would face the prospect of a hard border with England, its most important market.
Moreover, data released in August showed Scotland’s national fiscal deficit climbing to £15billion in the year to April – even before the worst of the coronavirus crisis was felt.
While in the past few months, opinion polls have given “Yes” campaigners a consistent lead over their unionist rivals, experts are now warning that the economic and fiscal difficulties of leaving the UK look substantially greater than they did when voters rejected the idea in 2014.
In an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk, Ronald MacDonald, research professor of macroeconomics and international finance at Glasgow University’s Adam Smith Business School, cast a shadow over the SNP’s plan to retain use of sterling in the early years of independence, rather than introduce a new currency.
Mr MacDonald claimed that under Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon‘s economic plan, an independent Scotland would almost immediately go bankrupt.
(…)
(iii) Nicola Sturgeon’s EU dream crushed by top economist: ‘Difficult for independent Scotland’
NICOLA STURGEON would like an independent Scotland to immediately join the European Union – but the country’s foremost macroeconomist has warned the Scottish First Minister’s dream might not come true for several years.
By MARTINA BET
Britain left the bloc on January 31, but not everyone in the UK has given up on EU membership. Despite Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeatedly rejecting her independence calls, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is still determined to hold a second referendum. The SNP leader believes Scots are being “dragged” out of the bloc against their will.
However, while Brexit might have made the case for Scottish independence stronger, it has also made it practically more difficult.
An independent Scotland would now border a non-EU country, likely requiring infrastructure and border checks between regions whose communities are deeply intertwined – similar to the problem of the Irish border that severely complicated Brexit talks.
Scotland could also be rejected by Brussels due to its current deficit of seven percent of GDP, unless it adopted a strict austerity programme from the EU as well as potentially adopting the euro2.
Moreover, new members can only be allowed into the bloc through a unanimous vote from the existing member states – and Holyrood would undoubtedly ruffle feathers if it were to join.
In an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk, Ronald MacDonald, research professor of macroeconomics and international finance at Glasgow University’s Adam Smith Business School, shed light on all the huge difficulties Scotland would face if it applied for EU membership.
He said: “Scotland is a country with a very high level of economic development compared to some other countries that have become independent in the post-war period.
“This means it has these huge financial trade links across the UK, which will be incredibly difficult to unravel.
“If you have a separate currency, it will make it even harder to unravel these assets and liabilities.
“For example, most households in Scotland have pensions denominated in England, presumably it will be English mortgage providers.
“If we were to become independent, how would our pensions be handled?”
Mr MacDonald added: “Yes, it would be possible to get into the EU but I cannot see that happening for many years.
“I also suspect there may be some resistance from some EU countries, such as Spain and so on...
“They could get the deficit down, but then we come back to that issue that you really need a deficit of about 3 percent of GDP to be consistent with the EU’s rules.
“They generally like a debt ratio of 60 percent.
“Well, it doesn’t look like we would have that.”
Mr MacDonald noted that the real big issue, though, concerns Scotland joining the euro while its biggest trading partner is the rest of the UK.
He continued: “This creates a huge dichotomy.
“You are no longer in a currency with the rest of the UK. How is that gonna affect trade?“
Gehigarria, Eurexit dela eta:
Europar Distopian segitzen dute arazoek:
EU’s ‘toxic’ handling of coronavirus exposed by Frexit campaigner: ‘It’s useless!’
Baten batek idatzi zuenez, Euro delendus est.
1 Gogoratu: ekonomialari hau marko ortodoxoan murgiltzen da.
2 Gogoratu: horiexek dira Europar Distopian egoteko ‘abantailak’, ie, etengabeko austeritatea sendo eta gogorra.
