Hasierarako, ikus Zipriztin ekonomikoak (23)

Segida:

(i) Deutsche Bank: Dragi eta NMF

Deutsche Denial Tsunami Begins: Draghi “Not ECB Fault”, IMF “Solid Base”¹

“It is becoming very clear that the Deutsche Bank debacle is getting very serious. How do we know? Simple – everyone is denying everything. Overnight DB CEO Cryan denied any need to raise capital or need a bailout; this morning ECB’s Draghi denied low rates were responsible, and denied The IMF’s statement the bank is systemically important; and now IMF’s Lagarde is denying any need for government intervention.

(…)

So to clarify:

DRAGHI: DEUTSCHE BANK DOES NOT POSE SYSTEMIC RISK
LAGARDE: DEUTSCHE BANK SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT

Yeah, you’re right, its probably nothing…

So, as we asked overenight, who blinks first? The IMF – “told you so” dance. The ECB – knowing the collateral chains that will snap. The Bundesbank – knowing their entire banking system is at risk. The German government – knowing it’s over for them if DB depositors have to take a haircut… Or Brussels – who know the entire EU plan is teetering is done if anything but the ‘rules’ are applied to Deutsche. For now, there is one thing for sure – the market will press for one of these players to be forced to make decision.”

(ii) Deutsche Bank eta EBZ

As Deutsche Bank Implodes, The ECB Is Making A “Strategic” Hire²...

“With Deutsche Bank crashing and burning for the second time in 2016, with its stock taking out all time lows and CDS spiking to record levels not seen even during the financial crisis, the ECB – which earlier denied its policies are at fault for the German lender’s woes – has realized that in addition to bond buyers (if not so much sellers), it needs to beef up its staffing in one critical area: banking supervision.

In a very ironic job posting announced on the ECB’s twitter feed, the ECB announced a job alert according to which it is now (or, perhaps at long last) hiring a banking supervision analyst.

Function: The European Central Bank (ECB) is seeking professionals with experience in the prudential supervision of credit institutions, in supervisory policies, standards and principles, and/or in financial policy development with a supervisory authority, commercial bank or related consulting services, to fill the position of Supervision Analyst within its Directorate General Microprudential Supervision III (DG/MS III), in the Analysis and Methodological Support Division.”

(iii) Deutsche Bank eta Deribatuak

THe EuRo SHiT LoCKeR³

(iv) Lasterka hasi da

The Run Begins: Deutsche Bank Hedge Fund Clients Withdraw Excess Cash⁴

“Deutsche Bank concerns just went to ’11’ as Bloomberg reports a number of funds that clear derivatives trades with Deutsche Bank AG have withdrawn some excess cash and positions held at the lender, a sign of counterparties’ mounting concerns about doing business with Europe’s largest investment bank.

While the vast majority of Deutsche Bank’s more than 200 derivatives-clearing clients have made no changes, some funds that use the bank’s prime brokerage service have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week, according to an internal bank document seen by Bloomberg News. (…) “

(v) EBZ-k ez du erantzunik eman

ECB “Refused To Answer Questions” – “Systemic Threat” Of Deutsche Is “Not ECB Fault”⁵

“The potential collapse of Deutsche Bank and the systemic risk it poses to banks and the European financial and monetary system moved into the German political sphere yesterday. The German government denied it was preparing a rescue of the embattled bank and the Bundestag attempted to ask questions of ECB President Mario Draghi about the causes of the “systemic risks” posed by the bank.

(…)

The ECB president brazenly “refused to answer questions” regarding Deutsche Bank during a closed-door meeting in the German parliament. Afterwords in conversation with journalists, he denied that the negative interest rates being imposed by the ECB are partly responsible for Deutsche Bank and the German financial system’s troubles.

However, many analysts rightly assert that zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) and now negative interest rate policies (NIRP) are a factor and partly contributing to the challenges facing banks in much of the western world. Not to mention causing bubbles in many property markets and indeed in stock and bond markets.

“If a bank represents a systemic threat it cannot be because of low interest rates. It has to be for other reasons,” Mr Draghi asserted to reporters somewhat dogmatically and simplistically. He was contradicted by the head of Germany’s BdB banking association, Michael Kemmer, who told Deutschlandfunk radio that the ECB’s low interest rate policy was partly responsible for the current problems that Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are facing.

This morning, Commerzbank, the second-biggest bank in Germany after Deutsche, suspended its dividend and revealed it is slashing more than 9,000 job losses as it too desperately tries to shore up its business in the face of ultra-low interest rates and increasing loan losses.

(…)

Now the banking crisis is moving to the core. This poses the real risk of financial contagion in the European monetary system and the global banking system.”

(vi) Department of Justice (DOJ)

Stocks Soar After French Press “Confirm” Deutsche Bank Near Settlement With DOJ⁶

“Seemingly confirming the rumor, Agence France Press reports that Deutsche Bank is nearing a $5.4 billion settlement with the US Justice Department. This has catalyzed another leg higher in Deutsche Bank stock and lifted the whole market as it would appear that unconfirmed sources have ‘fixed’ the world’s most systemically dangerous bank (despite the fact that short-dated counterparty risk is soaring).

(…)

Naturally, Deutsche Bank has refused to comment on speculation around the level of the DoJ fine.

DEUTSCHE BANK DECLINES TO COMMENT ON MEDIA REPORT IT IS CLOSE TO SETTLEMENT WITH DOJ

(…)

As a reminder, there were “fixes” galore in 2008 and rumors sent Lehman stock soaring over 10% in at least 6 weeks during the last few months…

(vii) Lehman Brothers berria ote?

Pourquoi Deutsche Bank n’est pas un nouveau Lehman Brothers⁷

“La première banque allemande est malmenée en Bourse après que des fonds spéculatifs ont réduit leur exposition à Deutsche Bank. Le scénario rappelle celui de la faillite de Lehman Brothers. Nicolas Véron, économiste chez Bruegel et au Peterson Institute, explique en quoi la situation est différente.

Faut-il craindre un nouveau Lehman Brothers?

Non. Aujourd’hui, il n’existe aucun indice selon lequel Deutsche Bank aurait des problèmes de bilan comparables à ceux de Lehman Brothers en 2008. Deutsche Bank a des réserves beaucoup plus importantes que Lehman n’en disposait. En outre, la faillite de Lehman est intervenue dans une situation d’extrême fragilité du système financier et bancaire aux Etats-Unis. Ce n’est pas le cas actuellement en Europe où le système est dans l’ensemble plus robuste et balisé.

Mais une crise de confiance peut-elle entraîner une nouvelle catastrophe internationale ?

L’intérêt médiatique se porte sur Deutsche Bank en raison de son caractère international, mais aussi parce que le choc qui secoue l’établissement vient des Etats-Unis avec les 14 milliards de dollars réclamés par le département américain de la Justice. Cependant, du point du vue des autorités européennes, il n’y a pas d’indications que les coussins de sécurité dans la structure du capital ne fonctionnent pas bien. Peut-être que les actionnaires vont perdre de l’argent ou que les détenteurs d’obligations convertibles en actions aussi. Mais rien n’indique qu’on aille plus loin. De plus, le système bancaire allemand est spécifique en raison d’un héritage historique, constitué d’un certain nombre de banques publiques. Il n’est pas dit que les autres banques du pays pâtissent des difficultés de Deutsche Bank. En réalité, la situation en Italie est bien plus systémique que ce qui se passe en Allemagne.

En quoi la situation en Italie est-elle plus angoissante ?

La fragilité du système bancaire n’y est pas limitée à une banque, mais elle est partagée par l’ensemble des établissements via la mise en place de mécanismes de mutualisation des risques, comme le fonds Atlante. Ainsi, les banques en bonne santé sont exposées aux banques en mauvaise santé. Enfin, le gouvernement allemand a une marge de manoeuvre budgétaire que l’Italie n’a pas. “

Alemanian arazorik ez? Italian bai?

(viii) Deutsche Bank izango ote da Lehman Brothers⁸ berri bat?

DTM-koek, eta Warren Mosler-ek bereziki, argi hitz egin dute bangunkintzaz.

Hona Mosler-en erantzuna AEBrako (antzekoa Europar Batasunerako):

Warren Mosler-ek bankugintzaz

Bankugintza: beharrezko gogorapenak

Bankugintzaz eta hitz jarioaz

Warren Mosler-ek bankugintzaz Minsky institutuan

Warren Mosler-ek Italiako bankugintzaz

(viii) Azken ordua

Bloomberg @business⁹

BREAKING: Deutsche Bank shares fall below €10 for first time – follow our coverage http://bloomberg.com/live/europe