Grezia: erabateko desastrea (2)

Sarrera: irakur Grezia: erabateko desastrea (1)1


(2) Desastre hutsa, totala

Grezia: tragedia hutsa besterik ez.

Artikulua: Europe’s liberal illusions shatter as Greek tragedy plays on2

Artikuluan aipatzen diren punturik garrantzitsuenak:

(a) Albistea: Greziak ez dauka dirurik3

(b) Aurreko albistea ez da 1915eko udari zegokion berria eta, okerturik, berriz argitaratu dena orain, 2016an4

(c) Afera sinplea da, erabat: Grezia, berriz ere, austeritate neurriak adostu behar ditu Europako Komisioarekin eta NMF-rekin (aka IMF), NMF-k oso argi dakienean zer nolako egoera txarra dagoen Grezian5

(d) Gainera, gehigarriak diren beste neurri kontingente batzuk eskatzen ari dira, just in case Grezia ez dela izango gai helburu fiskalak (mozketak!) betetzeko6

(e) Aipatutakoa ia ezinezkoa da, Grezia 2018rako aurrekontu superabitak (sic) lortu beharko dituelako, baita hurrengo urteetan ere7

Alegia: “Aliziaren ekonomia Lurralde Miragarrian8

(f) Badirudi Atenasko gobernuak ez dela jakitun aipatutakoaz, gainera, oso ahul dagoela, eta modu desesperatu batez ‘diru laguntza`’ behar duela, euroguneko paradisuan segitu ahal izateko9

Beraz, Tsipras egiten ari da joan den urtean egin zuen gauza bera. Denborekin jolasten ari da10.

Nahasteka korapilatzen ari da Europar Batasunean (EB)…

Alde batetik, Alemanian gertatzen ari dena errefuxiatuarekin, gero Angela Merkel eta Wolfgang Schäubl-en arteko gorabeherak, azken honek Mario Draghi-rekin dauzkan tira-birak direla eta11

Beste aldetik, Grezia EBn mantendu behar dute, zeren Britainia Handian Brexit delakoa hortxe bertan baitago, gori-gori12

Brusela eta Frankfurt ez dira aldatu, nahi eta Greziaren afera eta gero, Europako boto emaileak jakitun egon botoa edozeini emanda ere, EB barruan, horrek ez duela egingo inongo diferentziarik13.

EBko egoera beste edozein lekutako egoera baino txarragoa da bi arrazoi direla medio: alde batetik, bertan dagoen defizit politikoa dela eta, eta bestetik, bertan jarritako politika ekonomikoak ez-efektiboak eta onarpenik gabekoak izan direlako14.

Autoreak dioenez, horretaz aritzen gara gure hurrengo liburuan15. Ilusioak joan den uda arte iraun zuen16. Uda eta gero, Tsipras-ek aukera bat egin behar zuen17.

Segida eta bukaera:

(3) Varoufakis (the big bluff) tarte garrantzitsu baterako desastrearen kapitaina

Artikulua: Why Varoufakis’ DiEM2025 is fighting the wrong fight18

3 Ingelesez: “Greece is running out of money. The government in Athens is raiding the budgets of the health service and public utilities to pay salaries and pensions. Without fresh financial support it will struggle to make a debt payment due in July.”

4 Ez, izan ere, “No, this is not a piece from the summer of 2015 reprinted by mistake. Greece, after a spell out of the limelight, is back. Another summer of threats, brinkmanship and all-night summits looms.”

5 Ingelesez: The problem is a relatively simple one. Greece is bridling at the unrealistic demands of the European commission and the International Monetary Fund to agree to fresh austerity measures when, as the IMF itself accepts, hospitals are running out of syringes and buses don’t run because of a lack of spare parts.

Athens has already pushed through a package of austerity measures worth €5.4bn (£4.23bn) as the price of receiving an €86bn bailout agreed at the culmination of last summer’s protracted crisis and expected the deal to be finalised last October.”

6 Ingelesez: “Disbursements of the loan have been held up, however, because neither the commission or the IMF believe that Greece will make the promised savings. So they are demanding that Alexis Tsipras’s government legislate for additional “contingency measures” worth €3.6bn to be triggered in the event that Greece fails to meet its fiscal targets.”

7 Ingelesez: “This is almost inevitable, given that the target is for the country to run a primary budget surplus of 3.5% of gross domestic product by 2018 and in every year thereafter. This means that once Greece’s debt payments are excluded, tax receipts have to exceed public spending by 3.5% of GDP. The exceptionally onerous terms are supposed to whittle away Greece’s debt mountain, currently just shy of 200% of GDP.

8 Ingelesez: “If this all sounds like Alice in Wonderland economics, then that’s because it is. Greece is being set budgetary targets that the IMF knows are unrealistic and is being set up to fail. It will then be punished further for being unable to do what was impossible in the first place.

9 Ingelesez: “Predictably enough, the government in Athens is not especially taken with this idea. It has described the idea as outlandish and unconstitutional, but is in a weak position because it desperately needs the bailout loan and threw away its only real bargaining chip last year by making it clear that it would stay in the single currency whatever the price.

10 Ingelesez: “So Tsipras is doing what he did last year. He is playing for time, hopeful that by hanging tough and threatening another summer of chaos he can force Europe’s leaders to offer him a better deal – less onerous deficit reduction measures coupled with a decent slug of debt relief. For the time being though, the matter is being handled by the eurozone’s finance ministers, who want their full pound of flesh.”

11 Ingelesez: “The mood is especially unyielding in Germany, where Angela Merkel’s popularity has suffered as a result of her open door policy toward refugees. Faced with growing hostility, she has concluded that this is not the time to show any signs of weakness. She has sought to mollify German voters by giving her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, a free hand to ratchet up his criticism of the stimulus policies Mario Draghi is pursuing at the European Central Bank, and by insisting that there should be no debt relief for Greece until Tsipras has done everything demanded of him.”

12 Ingelesez: “Merkel must pray that the lid can be kept on Greece until after 23 June, because it is hard to see how a repeat of last summer’s argy-bargy would help keep Britain inside the EU – rather more important to Germany in the long term than a few billion euros of debt relief.

The reason is that David Cameron can only win his referendum by securing the votes of non-Conservative supporters, for some of whom the handling of Greece exemplifies everything that is wrong with the EU – its lack of democracy, hyper-conservative economic agenda and insistence that the single currency is a great success when in fact it has proved to be a colossal failure.”

13 Ingelesez: “It has been (…) no change in Brussels and Frankfurt, where the officials responsible for the eurozone’s bone-headed policies carry on regardless. Voters across Europe have got the message from the way Greece’s opposition to austerity was crushed – you can vote for whoever you like, but it won’t make any difference.

14 Ingelesez: “The situation in the eurozone is worse, however, in part because the democratic deficit is so marked, in part because economic performance has been woeful and in part because there has been a dogged insistence on continuing with policies that have been both ineffective and unpopular.

15 Liburua: Europe isn’t working, by Larry Elliott and Dan Atkinson, Yale University Press:

16 Ingelesez: “As Dan Atkinson and I [Larry Elliot] argue in our forthcoming book about the failure of the single currency, Greece was the point where progressive illusions were shattered. Until last summer it was just about possible to believe in a cuddly European polity dedicated to higher living standards, full employment and more generous welfare states.

17 Ingelesez: “Then a gun was held to Greece’s head. Tsipras was faced with a choice. Ignore what the people want or see your banks go bust. This in a country which had seen the economy shrink by a quarter in five years. Difficult to spot what was awfully progressive about sucking spending power from an economy woefully short of demand. Then or now.”

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