Hasteko, ikus Grexit ez da garestiagoa oraingo bidea baino… (2)1
Bill Mitchell-en analisiak:
Irakur Mitchell-en Greece – return to growth demonstrates the role of substantial fiscal deficits, beheko aferak analizatu baino lehen.
35 mila bilioi euroko inbertsio injekzioa proposatu dute batzuek2. Horrek zer suposatzen duen ulertu ahal izateko, Greziak superabit fiskalak izaten segituko duelakoan, hona hemen Greziako kontu nazional, merkataritza eta lan-indarrari buruzko azken datuez Mitchell-ek egindako hausnarketa.
a) Ezaguna da Greziako ekonomia 2008tik %26 inguruan gutxiagotu dela…
b) Baina, nolakoa izan liteke susperraldi ibilbide bat?
Troikak egindako aparteko kaltea gainditzeko susperraldiak hamarkada batzuk behar izango ditu, ez badago austeritatetik norabide aldaketa erradikal bat.
c) Demagun ondoko grafikoa3,
“The ratio has dropped from a peak of 49.2 per cent in the September-quarter 2008 to 37.8 per cent. This is incredibly low by international standards. Nations such as Australia have EPOP ratios around 61 per cent.”
d) Hurrengo grafikoa4,
“The peak employment level was 4639.6 thousand achieved in the September-quarter 2008. Then the sudden drop occurred as the Troika closed in on the Greek government and the conservative Greek government surrendered as the pressure was put on them to inflict austerity.”5
Eta 2009an posible zen Grexit?6
Mitchell-en ariketa mentala7:
“This suggests that even under very favourable growth conditions (which were evident before the crisis), it will take Greece another 20 years from now to regain the employment lost by the imposed policy austerity.”
Populazioa eta enplegua (2034 inguruan)8.
Langabeziak oso altua segituko du zenbait hamarkadetan9.
Ondoko grafikoa10,
Ariketa:
“If you extrapolate the growth path out based on pre-crisis trend growth rates and recalculate the investment ratio in terms of this ‘potential’ GDP, the current ratio would be 8 per cent.
Almost unbelievable.”
Ondorioa: galdera zuzena
“Is being able to have a euro in your pocket worth the sort of sustained income losses outlined above?
An exit is not rocket science11. But it surely is better than the future that Greece is facing under the conditions that now appear to forming the latest bailout options.”
Beraz?
1 Ikus https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2015/07/13/grexit-ez-da-garestiagoa-oraingo-bidea-baino-2/.
2 Ikus aurreko linkean: A Workable Reform Programme For Greece.
3 Irudiak “shows the Employment to Population ratio (employment as a percentage of the population above 15 years) in Greece from the March-quarter 2001 to the March-quarter 2015 (blue solid line). This is the data drawn from the quarterly labour force survey conducted by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (El.Stat) – Labour Force data.”
4 Irudiak “show the evolution of total employment over the same period.”
5 Ingelesez: “Between the peak quarter (September 2008) and the trough quarter (December 2013), Greece lost 1,159.7 thousand jobs or 25 per cent of their total employment base. Unemployment rose by 973.2 thousand (27.8 per cent) from 364 thousand (7.3 per cent). There was a slight reprieve in job loss in mid-2014, but since then the economy has contracted again and employment is falling again.”
6 Ingelesez: “There is no doubt that an early exit in 2009, when it was obvious the Eurozone was a failed structure (it was obvious before that – like in 1991 it was obvious it would be), that these employment losses could have been avoided.”
7 Ingelesez: “… a prospective future employment growth trajectory as a mental exercise and the result is captured by the blue dotted line. Suppose that total employment in Greece grows steadily from this point forward (latest data is for March-quarter 2015) at the average quarterly rate of growth that was achieved between the March-quarter 2001 and the peak September-quarter 2008. (…) That average growth was 0.3 per cent per quarter. The blue dotted line then simulated total employment growing steadily at that rate… I kept pushing out the projection until the new total employment level was once again equal the September-quarter 2008 peak. Past 2020 I went, past 2025, past 2030, until the extrapolation ends in the December-quarter 2034.”
8 Ingelesez: “… the population will have continued to grow modestly. The average labour force growth over the 2001-2008 period was 0.2 per cent. So employment growth before the crisis was slightly faster than the underlying population growth which allowed the unemployment rate to fall slightly. Assuming the labour force growth matched its previous average, then by 2034, when employment finally catches up with where it was in the September-quarter 2008, unemployment will still be 937.3 thousand or 16.8 per cent of the labour force. These numbers are not wild guesses and they are on the optimistic end of the scale. It could be that the situation in Greece remains so dire that labour force growth doesn’t occur (it is currently negative) as people leave the nation looking for opportunities elsewhere.”
9 Ingelesez: “Unemployment will remain very high for decades. But then we know that austerity will not produce such growth rates remotely like those that Greece has achieved before the crisis. Then the situation becomes more dire than one could imagine. Then Nemesis has to enter the picture but at a much delayed time with the damage done by the hubris irrecoverable.”
10 Irudiak “shows the evolution of the investment ratio (total gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP) since 1995 (blue line). It has dropped from a pre-crisis peak of 25.1 per cent to an abysmal 13.5 per cent.”
