Erreferenduma eta geroko Greziaz

(i) Twitterrak Greziaz (segida)

Scott Fullwiler@stf18 uzt. 4

As I’ve shown often in my own research, it’s all about r-g, not debt/GDP. “DeGrauwe–Greece is solvent but illiquid” …

Warren B. Mosler@wbmosler uzt. 5

@stf18 And provided ‘savings desires’ fall or net exports rise 😉

Edward Harrison@edwardnh 17

“The Bank of Greece (BoG) said on Sunday evening that it will make a formal request to the ECB for fresh support.” – @AmbroseEP

Andrea Terzi@ndrea_terzi

@edwardnh @AmbroseEP ..and ECB can only say no with two thirds majority if this conflicts with ECB tasks …

Warren B. Mosler@ wbmosler

@ndrea_terzi @edwardnh @AmbroseEP Greek debt can be removed from the list of collateral eligible for ECB funding

Andrea Terzi@ndrea_terzi

@wbmosler @edwardnh @AmbroseEP Yes, though hard decision for ECB to make, with political consequence, as they’ve politically saved € before

Warren B. Mosler@wbmosler

@ndrea_terzi @edwardnh @AmbroseEP true, but since Greece failed to pay the imf and also voted no it’s harder to rationalize collateral value

Yanis Varoufakis@yanisvaroufakis uzt. 6

Our NO is a majestic, big YES to a democratic, rational Europe! …

Warren B. Mosler@wbmosler uzt. 6

@yanisvaroufakis subsequent market reaction has given support to those who believe that the EU does not need Greece.

Warren B. Mosler@wbmosler

EU losing interest in Greece as the euro stabilizes and rates stay low, with discussion turning to humanitarian assistance

(ii) Fed labor market index, ISM non manufacturing index, Bank lending, Greece1

EBZ-k mugimendua hasi du Greziako zorra kentzeko EBZren mailegu berme gisa2

Orain EU konturatzen denean berak ez duela behar Grezia, segur aski terminoak ez direla aldatuko. Greziako lidergoak oraindik eurogunean eta EBn egoteko konpromisoa hartuta, eskaleen rola hartzen dute3.

Laguntza humanitariorako deia Grezia jartzen du kategoria batean non beste deprimitutako herrialdeek laguntza horren mota ikus dezaketen, Greziak ohar batean esaten duenez: “European Parliament president: Need to urgently discuss humanitarian aid for Greece4.”

(iii) Greece drops in the news standings5

Greziak albisteen ziklotik eroriz doa…, beheko 9. istorioa:

2 Ingelesez: “ECB maintains emergency assistance for Greek banks, but adjusts haircut on collateral.

3 Ingelesez: “Even if it came to a collapse of some individual banks, the risk of contagion is relatively small,” Schaeuble told Bild. “The markets have reacted with restraint in the last few days. That shows that the problem is manageable.”

Greek Leaders Says Goal Is to Secure Country’s Financing.

July 5 (Bloomberg) — Greek party leaders seek solution that secures country’s financing needs, reforms, growth plan and talks on Greek debt sustainability, according to joint statement sent by the Greek president’s office. Immediate priority is to restore liquidity for Greek economy in cooperation with the ECB
Joint statement signed by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras, acting New Democracy leader Evangelos Meimarakis, Potami party leader Stavros Theodorakis and Pasok party leader Fofi Gennimata
NOTE: Earlier, Greek Showdown Looms With Europe Demanding Tsipras Make Move Link

4 Ingelesez: “July 5 (CNBC) — European institutions need to urgently discuss a humanitarian aid program for Greece, the … “

Iruzkinak (3)

  • joseba

    Bill Mitchell: The ECB has to maintain ELA to Greek banks

    “…the Greek people voted overwhelmingly NO to reject austerity as a viable policy model for their country. This is a case of democracy coming head to head with the dominant political-economic ideology within which the Greek nation is situated – the Eurozone. It also demonstrates the flaws of the democratic process – the people have voted for an end to austerity but also consistently tell opinion polls they want to remain in the Eurozone, a monetary system that is built on austerity. They voted yesterday to reject the very basis of the monetary system they want to stay in – which tells us they don’t really understand the nature of the system and therefore how informed is the NO vote.


    Syriza’s claims to be anti-austerity were shown to be somewhat at odds with the reality of the approach its leader made just before the referendum to the Eurogroup.
    Greece needs to be running large fiscal deficits – debt relief or not. Running primary surpluses will continue the suffering. I know they want the fiscal stimulus to come from outside the nation – via the Euro investment fund etc. But that is not going to happen anytime soon, in quantities that one might deem stimulative.
    So with the external reality set, the Greeks have to be able to run deficits (primary and overall). Otherwise, it will continue to fester.


    The ECB has to maintain liquidity in the Greek banking system. If it refuses then Greece would have to immediately issue its own currency and recapitalise the banks accordingly. That is, the ECB would take the political act to force the nation from the Eurozone without any rules in any European treaty suggesting that is part of its mandate.


    The fact the ECB joined the Troika demonstrated that the neo-liberal concept of independent central banks is another one of those myths that allow policy makers to deflect responsibility for poor decisions that damage the prospects of people.
    But the legal responsibilities of the ECB make it impossible for it to allow the Greek banking system to go broke. That is one of its core legal responsibilities.
    If it does take the extraordinary political decision to stop ELA funding to the Greek banks then it demonstrates how badly designed the Euro monetary system is. To allow the central bank to flagrantly ignore its basic legal charge and to pursue politicial aims that are outside its remit would signal a catastrophic failure of the common currency.
    There are those who claim the ECB faces massive losses if it continues to provide ELA. The same arguments apply to its bond buying schemes under the various titles since 2010.
    Please read my blog – The ECB cannot go broke – get over it – for more discussion on this point.


    If the ELA is terminated, Greece exits. Simple as that. They would have no choice. Then all Greek government euro-denominated debts would be either restructured into the new currency or simply wiped off by the debtor. It therefore makes no sense to fear default and then follow an action that guarantees that very state.
    In that sense, I do not believe the NO vote will see the ELA withdrawn. There will be threats, fear mongering and all the rest of the bullying tactics that have been witnessed over the last several years.
    Germany will be making noises. Jens Weidemann will rave on about hyperinflation and printing money. Others will try to say the bridges are burned.
    But the ECB will have to continue to act as a central bank according to its legal charter or place itself in a position of legal threat – for malpractice – and plunge the very system its is charged with safeguarding into a terminal crisis.”

  • joseba

    Greece should not accept any further austerity – full stop!

    “… This blog explains that the Greek problem is one of insufficient spending. The fiscal deficit has to rise to stimulate growth. This problem emerged in 2008-09 and is largely due to the fiscal austerity that was imposed on the nation by the Troika. It might have crony-deals and all the rest of it, but that is not what brought the economy to its depressed state. That state is all down to human intervention from outside of Greece in the form of austerity. Greece should not accept any further austerity – full stop!
    To repeat myself (for the nth time, where n is a large number):
    A basic rule of macroeconomics is that spending equals income, which leads to output and employment.
    Someone’s spending is another person’s income. There has to be growth in spending for income and output to grow.
    If there is unemployment it means that total spending is insufficient to generate enough output and hence jobs to satisfy the preferences for work of the unemployed.
    The solution is always for the government to either directly increase spending to lift sales in the private sector and stimulate further income and/or to cut taxes, which might lead to higher private spending.


    So while our columnist in the Independent would like to think the ‘lefties’ represent the mainstream, I think he should consult the economics textbooks that proliferate in undergraduate and graduate courses around the world.
    Those textbooks tend to deny what you are seeing with your own eyes in these graphs and which more formal modelling would ratify.
    The simple point is that the Eurozone is suffering from a dramatic shortage of total spending and the misguided fiscal austerity that was imposed on the Member States clearly undermined private investment spending and caused real GDP growth to fall and unemployment to rise.
    Exactly the opposite of what the IMF was saying in 2009 when it was demanding that nations impose the austerity.
    Fiscal policy rules. Greece is where it is at present because it was forced to endure the worst austerity (fiscal shift) imaginable.
    There is no secret as to why its economy has contracted by at least 25 per cent and its unemployment remains stuck around 25 per cent.
    What the data does emphasise, however, is the Greek government should head to Brussels today with a fiscal stimulus plan and forget about the debt relief for the time being. Its priority should be to get an agreement whereby it can run a significantly large fiscal deficit funded by the ECB through the QE program (that is, indirectly given the stupidity of the Treaty) to get the economy growing again.
    The fact that the Syriza government was stating it would accept conditions that still left it to pursue primary fiscal surpluses (that is, once interest payments are made) tells me that it would be just another Greek government imposing austerity on its people.
    It is not the debt relief that matters in the coming months but the ongoing austerity.
    That is what the people voted NO for – to end the fiscal austerity. Syriza should demand that now and not backdown and accept some watered down austerity (at best).”

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