Warren Mosler berriz egon zen Italian, 2014an. Hitzaldi bat eman zuen.
Hitzaldia: Warren Mosler’s talk in Chianciano, Italy, January 11, 20141
Bideoa: WARREN MOSLER (ME-MMT) A OLTRE L’EURO! CHIANCIANO-11.01.2014 – INTEGRALE!2
Diapositibak: Chianciano presentation3
Gure blogean aritu gara hitzaldi horretaz: Euroaz haratago (Beyond the euro)4
(Blog honetan ‘Warren Moler italieraz‘ izeneko sei sarreretan Alto il Deficit!, Up With The Deficit!5liburua analizatu dugu. Sarrera hau gehigarri gisa ikus daiteke.)
Hitzaldiaren aurkezpenean esaten den moduan, “Mosler describes how Italy (or any of the 17 EU countries that use the Euro) can leave the European Union safely if the EU persists, as it insists on doing, in impoverishing their country and citizens.”
Grezian Grexit delako aukera gero eta posibleagoa denez eta Mosler-ek Italian emandako hitzaldian eurotik lira-ra pasatzeko aukera analizatzen duenez, oraingo sarrera honetan esandakoa sakonduko dugu.
Ondoko puntuak berrikusi dira:
xv) Mosler Italiako arduraduna balitz…8
xvi) EBZ-k ez badu jokatu nahi, utz EB eta erabil lira berriz9
xvii) arazoek segituko dute baldin eta lirarekin ‘aurrekontu balantzea’ lortu nahi bada10
xviii) izan enplegu osoa helburu, gero defizit tamaina finkatu bera lortzeko11
xix) aldatu eurotik lirara12
xx) zer gertatzen zaie oraingo euroko banku maileguei eta gordailuei?13
6 Ingelesez: “As every student of game theory knows the labor market is not what they call ‘a fair game’. People have to work to eat, but businesses only hire when they want to, or when they think they can make a profit. It is not a fair confrontation. And if there isn’t some kind of support for labor, then real wages will be forced down continuously. All the way down to subsistence wages, while the share going to other sectors increases. And every Main Street economist knows it’s because the labor market is not a fair game. It’s not the natural consequence of free markets, it has nothing to do with it.”
7 Ingelesez: “I just want to say a quick word about what a good economy is because it’s been so long since we’ve had a good economy. You’ve got to be at least as old as I am to remember it. In a good economy business competes for people. There is a shortage of people to work for business. Everybody wants to hire you. They’ll train you, whatever it takes. They hire students before they get out of school. You can change jobs if you want to because other companies are always trying to hire you. That’s the way the economy is supposed to be but that’s all turned around. For one reason, which I’ll keep coming back to, the budget deficit is too small. As soon as they started tightening up on budget deficits many years ago, we transformed from a good economy where the people were the most important thing to what I call this ‘crime against humanity’ that we have today.”
8 Ingelesez: “If I was [were] in charge in Italy, which I’m not, I would send some kind of ultimatum to the European Union saying you relax your deficit limit from 3% to maybe 8% of GDP so that Italy can either increase public services, cut taxes, whatever Italy wants to do. (…). Then unemployment would come down, and we would see how far it would come down. I think it would come down to, maybe, 6%. That would immediately take the pressure off, and people would understand how it worked. And then they could make further adjustments.”
9 Ingelesez: “And if the European Union says no, instead we’re going to continue to make sure that you can’t earn enough money to pay the tax, and save, and so we’re going to keep burning your houses down, then there’s no choice left but to leave and start your own currency, the Lira.”
10 Ingelesez: “But here’s the problem. If you stay with the same political leadership that you have today, and they try to balance a budget with the Lira, there’s not going to be enough Lira to pay the taxes and to save. And your own new government is going to be burning down your houses just like today. We say ‘out of the frying pan into the fire’. Okay, so you must have leadership that understands how the currency works.”
11 Ingelesez: “… you target full employment, because that’s the kind of economy everybody wants to live in. And the right size deficit is whatever deficit corresponds to full employment. And a little bit later I’m going to give you one more trick to make sure you don’t have an inflation problem.”
12 Ingelesez: “Now, operationally, how do you switch from Euro to Lira? The good news is it’s very simple. The most important thing is that all taxes become due in Lira instead of Euro. That creates an entire nation that needs Lira to pay all kinds of taxes. The Lira is in demand, it’s strong. Now everyone is unemployed in Lira. Everyone needs to earn Lira. The next thing is for all Italian government employees to get paid in Lira. Now I would leave the salaries the same. So if you are earning €30,000 [per year] working for the government, you would earn 30,000 Lira per year working for the government. And I would encourage private-sector employers also to be paying in Lira, which they will. Because if you remember when they switched to the Euro, what happened to private-sector employers? They started paying in Euro. They didn’t have to. They could’ve paid in Dollars or Yen or Pounds or anything they wanted to. But with all the tax liabilities, including their own, and all their employees in Lira, then they will naturally switch to Lira. You don’t have to compel them to do that. They are going to get paid in Lira for everything they sell when they sell to the government which is a lot, when they sell to other people working for the government, they’re going to have Lira. They are going to want pay in Lira. The whole thing monetizes in no time. Paying people one-to-one in Lira where they used to earn Euro is the only exchange rate…the only time the exchange rate is set by the government. And it’s not really an exchange rate. You did not fix the exchange rate in the marketplace. The government doesn’t need to intervene at this point.” Beraz, 1 euro —> 1 lira.
13 Ingelesez: “Bank deposits remain in Euro.
If you have Euro in your bank nobody is going to take them away from you and give you Lira. If you want Lira you can go to your bank, they will tell you the market price, they will do a foreign exchange rate action. They will get the Lira for you at the going rate. But you’re not forced. That’s both borrowers and depositors. And all Lira bank deposits are fully insured by the government. But not the Euro deposits. Because the government doesn’t create the Euro, they create the Lira. When they spend, they spend in Lira. What this does is it creates the initial conditions for a very strong Lira. Everybody needs Lira, and they are somewhat difficult to get. You get them when you get paid by the government, but that’s not everybody. You can convert your bank accounts to Lira but that makes the Lira strong because you’re selling Euro to buy Lira. This allows the government to go the opposite way. The government can sell Lira to people who need it and buy Euro, without causing the market to depreciate. Because the Lira is scarce, and strong, and trying to go up, when the government comes in to buy some Euro to service its needs, it’s just keeping it stable. The same with any appreciating currency for as long as that continues.
We’ll go to bank lending.
Banks are very dangerous gambles. We’ve all seen what private banks can do if they get out of control. We know how difficult they are to control and to regulate. Most of us have lived long enough to see what public banks can do when they get out of control. They are both highly problematic. They must be kept what we say on a very short leash. You know what that means? If you have a dog that is dangerous you don’t have a long leash, you have a very short leash.”