Bill Mitchell-en artikuku berria: The Balanced Budget silly season is upon us again1.
1) Moneta jaulkitzen duen gobernu batentzat, oreka orekatuaren afera aukera txarra da oso2.
2) DTM eta Mitchell sakon aritu dira gai honetaz3.
Aspaldiko gaia denez, soilik punturik garrantzitsuenak aipatuko dira hemen:
a) Gobernu subirano bat ezin da ordaintze ezeko egoeran egon bere pasiboarekiko, bere monetan4. Ondorio zuzena: zor publikoa jasangarria da.
b) Gobernuaren soberakinak (defizitak) ez-gobernuaren defizita (soberakina) berdintzen du, zehatz mehatz5.
Ez-gobernuko sektorea bere bi osagai banatzen bada, beste ondorio batera iristen da:
c) Zikloaren zehar, gobernu-sektorea balantzean badago, orduan barneko sektore pribatuaren defizitak (superabitak) kanpoko sektorearen defizita (superabita) berdintzen du, zehataz mehatz6.
Stockak eta fluxuak desberdinduz,
d) Ekonomian gastua fluxu bat da.
Hortaz, hiru sektore makroekonomikoek (gobernua, barneko sektore pribatua -enpresak eta familiak- eta kanpoko sektorea -esportazioak ken inportazioak-), hirurek ekonomian gastu fluxu netoak7 sartzen dituzte, zeintzuk konbinatzen baitira gastu orokorra, outputa (BPG) eta errenta nazionala sortzeko.
Honela laburbildu daiteke hazkundearen sortzea gastu fluxuen bidez:
The private domestic balance -Saving (S) minus Investment (I)- is positive if in surplus (private domestic sector is spending less overall than its income) and negative if in deficit (private domestic sector is spending more overall than its income).
The Fiscal balance -Tax (T) receipts minus government spending (G)- is positive if in surplus (government spending less than it is taking out of the economy via taxation) and negative if in deficit (government spending more than it is taking out of the economy via taxation).
The External (Current Account) balance –Exports (X) minus imports (M)- is positive if in surplus (external sector adding more to aggregate demand via exports than is being drained by imports and net income transfers) and negative if in deficit (external sector draining aggregate demand because export income is lower than the sum of import spending and net income flows).
Caveat: barneko sektore pribatua defizitean baldin badagi, horrek ez du suposatzen familiak ez daudenik aurrezten. Hauxe esan nahi du: sektore horretako gastu eta aurrezki indibidual guztien erabakiak agretatu ondoren, sektoreak gehiago gastatzen du bere errenta baino, hau da, desaurrezten ari da8.
“… when the government is running a balanced fiscal position, the non-government sector must be spending exactly what it earns and is not accumulating net financial assets (as a sector). When the external sector is in balance, then that conclusion applies directly to the private domestic sector.”
“…if households do not consume all their disposable income each period then they are generating a flow of saving. This is quite a different concept to the notion of the private domestic sector (which is the sum of households and firms) saving overall9.”
Kontuz orduan, zeren…
“…if the balanced budget rule was enforced for a nation with an external deficit, then the private debt problem would escalate and, ultimately be unsustainable. That would lead to a contraction in private spending and a recession would follow.”
Defizit fiskalen oinarriko printzipioa
Ikusi dugunez, defizt fiskalak ekonomian gastu netoko fluxuak dira. Ez-gobernuko sektoreak oro har erabakitzen baldin badu bere errenta osoa ez gastatzea, orduan defizit fiskalak beharrezkoak dira.
Bi aukera daude horretarako: ekonomiatik gastu orokorraren gaineko kanpo defizitaren drainatzea eta/edo inbertsioa ez nahikoa izanik, familia aurrezkia bertan behera uzten prestatzea.
Baldintza horietan, gastu hutsunea10 irekiko da eta enpresek produkzioa moteldu dute eta langileak kaleratu.
Defizit fiskaleko fluxu bat egunero behar da ez-gobernuko sektoretik ‘ez gastatze’ fluxu hori betetzeko.
Barneko sektore pribatuak oso nekez jasan dezake gastu hazkunde egonkorra segurtatzearren gehituz doan lanindarrak beti enplegu bermea izan dezan11.
2 Ingelesez: “So what is wrong with a Balanced Budget Amendment for a currency-issuing national government? Well, to be succinct – almost everything!
What has to be understood is that deficits are not temporary events that have to be eliminated as soon as the production processes show the most tepid signs of moving again. It is really important to keep saying this: as long as the non-government sector desires to save overall the government sector has to be in deficit of an equal (offsetting) magnitude – $-for-$. If the government doesn’t follow this national accounting rule then the economy will never get close to full employment. There is an excellent argument from John Harvey in Forbes (March 1, 2015) – Why Balancing The Budget Means Economic Catastrophe – which should be spread widely around the Internet.”
3 Kasu: “Please read my blogs – Balanced budgets are rarely appropriate and Balancing budget over the cycle is not a sound fiscal rule – for more discussion on this point.”
4 Ingelesez: “First, no currency-issuing government can default on its own liabilities issued in its own currency as a result of financial pressures. They might default as a result of political stupidity. But such a government can always meet its outstanding commitments. So there is no public debt level that is unsupportable.”
5 “Second, we know from an understanding of the national accounts framework is that the government surplus (deficit) will exactly equal ($-for-$) the non-government deficit (surplus). Which means if the government is in balance over the cycle then the non-government sector will be in balance over the cycle.”
6 Ingeesez: “… once we decompose the non-government sector into its two constituent parts we can make a further conclusion. If the government sector is in balance over the cycle, then the private domestic sector deficit (surplus) will exactly equal ($-for-$) the external sector deficit (surplus).
That is, if there is an external deficit of say 4 per cent on average over the cycle then the private domestic sector will on average be in deficit – spending more than it is earning – over the same cycle – and accumulating increasing levels of debt.”
7 Ingelesez: “Households consume and save (these are flows) while business firms produce and invest (also flows).”
8 Oharrak: “The (S – I) relates to the overall balance of the private domestic sector (not the household secto r).It is clear that if we had a balanced fiscal position (G = T) and an external balance (X = M) then (S – I) = 0.
But this would not mean that there was a zero flow of saving in the economy. Households could still be consuming less than their disposable income which means that S > 0. What it means is that the private domestic sector overall is not saving because it is spending as much as it earns.”
9 Honela segitzen du, ingelesez: “The latter concept (saving overall) refers to whether the private domestic sector is spending more than it is earning, rather than just the household sector as part of that aggregate.”
10 Alegia, “the shortage of spending that would be required to support the production of enough goods that would sustain full employment.”