Zorra: Paul Krugman? Ez, mila esker!

Steve Keen-ek Paul Krugman-i buruz¹.

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Ikus dezagun.

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Zorrari buruz, Paul Krugman-ek hiru artikulu argitaratu ditu aste batean: “Debt Is Money We Owe To Ourselves” (February 6^th), “Debt: A Thought Experiment” (February 6th) eta “Nobody Understands Debt” (February 9^th).

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Bitxia. Hiru artikuluotan ‘banku’ hitza ez da azaldu.

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Uste baduzu ekonomialari batek, makroekonomiaz, zorra aztertzen duenean, hiru biderrez segituan, bankuen rola ez ukitzea zentzuganea dela, Kugman-ek esango dizu zer dela eta ez dituzun behar bankuak kontuan hartu (you don’t need to consider bank) eta temati bilakatzen bazara “Banking Mystic” dei egingo dizu.

Baina bankuek garrantzia daukate. Keen-ek etsenplu soil eta polit bat ematen du.

“Imagine that you want to buy a new iPhone 6, but you don’t have the $299 Apple wants for it. There are two ways you can get the money: you can borrow from a friend—who transfers money from her bank account to yours—which we can call “Peer to Peer” lending. Or you can add to your credit card debt with your bank—which obviously is “Bank Lending”.”

Lehen aukera. Zeure lagun batengandik maileguz hartzen duzunean, bankuaren ikuspuntua ondokoa da (let’s call you “Impatient” and your friend “Patient” to borrow Krugman’s terminology), ikus 1 Taula.

“When you borrow the money, Patient’s deposit account falls by $299, while yours rises by $299. Then when you buy the iPhone, your account falls by $299, and Apple’s rises by $299. Apple gets an extra $299 in income, but since Patient’s bank account has fallen by that much, she is likely to spend less over time, which will reduce someone else’s income by about as much as Apple’s income rose.”

Oro har, bankuen pasiboa -bankuaren bezeroen gordailu kontuak- ez da aldatzen agregatuan, ezta bankuaren aktiboa ere.

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1 Taula Table 1: Peer to Peer—Lending between individuals

	Assets		Liabilities
	Reserves	Bank Loans	Patient	Impatient	Apple
Borrow $299			-$299	+$299
Buy iPhone				-$299	+$299

Bigarren aukeran, $299 lortzen dituzu zeure kreditu txartelean. Egoera hori 2 Taulan azaltzen da.

“Patient is out of the picture here: your borrowing from the bank has no effect on Patient’s bank account (or her ability to shop). Your spending power has risen by $299 however, and you spend that on Apple—so your expenditure and Apple’s income rises by $299, with no offsetting fall in expenditure by anyone else.”

Oro har, bankuaren pasiboa eta aktiboa, biak, $299tan handitu dira. Diru berria, eskari berria eta errenta berria sortuak izan dira.

2 Taula: Bank Lending

	Assets		Liabilities
	Reserves	Bank Loans	Patient	Impatient	Apple
Borrow $299		+$299		+$299
Buy iPhone				-$299	+$299

Ikusitakoa istoriaren lehen partea da. Bigarrena zorra ordaintzen denean gertatzen da. Impatient delakoak birrordaintzeko, dirua aurreztu behar du, gutxiagoa gastatuz. IPhone kredituaren bidez ordaindu duelako.

Baina berak ordaintzen duenean, eragin makroekonomikoa “Peer to Peer” mailegu kasuan zero da: Impatient delakoaren banku kontua $299tan jaisten da eta Patient delakorena kopuru berean handitzen da². Ez dago aldaketarik bankuaren pasiboan eta aktiboan (ikus 3 Taula).

3 Taula: Peer to Peer—Repayment  between individuals

	Assets		Liabilities
	Reserves	Bank Loans	Patient	Impatient	Apple
Repay $299			+$299	-$299

Egoera oso desberdina da banku mailegu bat birrordaintzen denean.

4 Taulan ikus daitekeen moduan, bankuaren aktiboa eta pasiboa, biak $299tan jaisten dira. Zorraren birrordainketak zirkulazioko dirua gutxitu du³. Zentzu honetan, zorraren birrordainketak dirua deuseztatu du⁴.

4 Taula: Bank Repayment

	Assets		Liabilities
	Reserves	Bank Loans	Patient	Impatient	Apple
Repay $299		-$299		-$299

Horixe da banku maileguaren eta “peer to peer” delako maileguaren arteko funtsezko ezberdintasuna, zeinari Krugman bezalako ohiko ekonomialariek segitzen baitiote, Bank of England-ek emandako aholkua kontuan hartu gabe⁵:

Because mainstream economists like Krugman ignore bank lending, they ignore the biggest factor determining macroeconomic performance.

Afera garrantsitsua da, zor pribatuaren eta langabeziaren arteko erlazioak frogatzen duen bezala. Zor pribatuaren aldaketak ekonomia gidatzen du (ikus 1 Irudia)⁶.

1 Irudia: Change in private debt drives the economy (correlation coefficient =  -0.93)

Laburbilduz, banku zorrak garrantzia dauka:

“… bank debt matters, and Krugman shows that he (and the economic mainstream) understands debt less than many non-economists when he leaves it out of his thinking.”

(Espainia una, grande y libre-ko zor pribatuaz, ikus https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2015/02/21/espana-aparta-de-mi-este-caliz-cesar-vallejo/)

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