Hona hemen B. Mitchell-en gaurko lantxoa1.
Ez naiz Finantza Ministro bat2.
Baina duda bat daukat3.
Makroekonomiaz jakin behar dena4.
ZEIT ONLINE: During the campaign, Syriza announced a spending programme worth billions. Can it be implemented without new debts?
Varoufakis: It has to. I can promise you: Excluding interest payments, Greece will never present a budget deficit again. Never, never, never!
Izatez, hauxe da jakin beharrekoa: Diru teoria modernoa, hasiberrientzat5.
“… transakzio korronteen sumak zero berdintzen duenez, hiru sektoreen balantzea honela idatz daiteke:
(A – I) = (G – Z) + (E – i).
Alegia, aurrezki pribatu totalak (A) hauexek berdintzen ditu: barne inbertsio pribatua (I) gehi defizit publikoa (gastuak, G, ken zergak, Z) gehi esportazio netoak (esportazioak, E, ken inportazioak, i).
Hortaz, kanpo defizit batek (E – i < 0) superabit publiko bat (G – Z < 0) berdintzen duenean, defizit pribatu batek egon behar du. (Denboran zehar gastu pribatuak iraun dezake kanpoko sektorearen aurrezki netoak erabiliz; orduan, prozesu horretan sektore pribatua gero eta zordunago bilakatzen da.)
Alderantziz, kanpoko superabita dagonean, balantza publikoa (aurrekontua) superabitean egon daiteke, barne sektore pribatuari aurreztea ahalbidetuz.
Baina aurrezki pribatuak sendo direnean (eta kanpo superabita gainditzen duenean) orduan defizit publiko batek (aurrekontu) egon behar du, hazkunde ekonomikoa sostengatzeko.
Aipatutakoa da ekonomia mistoaren funtsa. Ez da iritzi edo interpretazio bat, kontabilitate hutsari dagokion analisia baizik.
Hortaz, sektore pribatuaren maileguz hartze netoak aktibo finantzarioen eskuratze netoa (aurrezki pribatua ken inbertsioa) ken ordainketa-balantza superabita (edo plus defizita) berdintzen du.
Gobernuak defizit gastutik alde egiten duen heinean, sektore pribatuaren zor maila igotzen da. Hauxe da bizi dugun aro neoliberalaren ezaugarritako bat.
Arrazoia argi dago. Kausalitatea politika fiskaletik sektore pribatura doa: gainontzeko munduko kontuarekiko eragina oso astiro aldatzen den bitartean, politika fiskalak berehala erantzuten die gastuei eta zergapetzeei buruzko gobernuaren erabakiei. Gastu eta zergapetze horien kantitateek eta kalitateek definitzen dute gobernu horren jarrera soziala, horren ezkerreko ala eskuineko jokaera.”
Oraingo honetan honela dio Mitchell-ek6: “That is, a fiscal deficit is needed to offset a non-government spending gap.”
DTM-koek argi daukate: Mitchell-en hitzez. “…MMT specifies a strict discipline on fiscal policy. It is not a free-for-all. If the goal is full employment and price stability then the Full-employment fiscal deficit condition has to be met.”
“A government’s accounts cannot buck the economic cycle without causing dreadful damage to the real economy.
That is what austerity is all about.”
Gehigarria: gaurko albistea EBZ-z:
“…ECB had effectively closed the door on Greek banks access to euro liquidity.”
Zer esan nahi du horrek?
“The ECB will no longer allow Greek government bonds to be used as collateral. Previously, as a result of the waiver, the bonds would be used throughout the Eurosystem to facilitate monetary operations – so-called open market operations where a bank might sell these bonds to the central bank to access necessary liquidity in euros.”
Non dago EBZ-ren independentzia?
“This is a bullying bastard act which clearly sees the ECB dropping its so-called ‘independence’ and acting as the front-line attack dog for the Troika (of which it is a member).”
“Their decision only reinforces my view that the Greek government should bail out of the bailout, exit the Eurozone, redenominate the outstanding public euro liabilities to its own advantage in its own currency, ensure the Bank of Greece (central bank) can maintain financial stability (keeps its banking system liquid) and flip the rest of them the ‘bird’ as they implement a national Job Guarantee program.”
Mitchell-en lana komentatuz, Mike Norman-ek dioenez9;
“The ‘Finance Minister’ is not lying. The Finance Minister does NOT know all of this. The Finance Minister does NOT possess the cognitive ability to know this (…)
He is not lying or over-promising, he simply does not have an adequate understanding of the complex systems he finds himself now in administration of. Just like the people he is up against.”
2 Ingelesez: “I am certainly not a Finance Minister with a nation in crisis on my hands.”
3 Ingelesez: “… I wonder how any Finance Minister who aims to create full employment and expand equity and undo years of deliberately imposed neo-liberal hardship can claim his nation will “Never, never, never!” record a primary fiscal deficit again.”
4 Ingelesez: “An understanding of macroeconomics will tell you (…) that a government cannot guarantee to never run a primary fiscal deficit forever unless they are prepared to allow for large swings in unemployment, something I thought the new Greek government was averse to, and it is that aversion, which defines their popular appeal.”
6 Ingelesez: “The government overall fiscal balance that is regularly reported is the difference between two flows – total revenue and total outlays. So if total revenue is greater than outlays, the fiscal balance is in surplus and vice versa.
Within that balance though are two components that are often separated out:
1. The primary fiscal balance – the difference between total government revenue and total public spending less interest payments on outstanding debt.
2. The interest payments on outstanding debt.
So the Finance Minister is talking about Greece never recording a primary fiscal deficit again.
Further, the primary fiscal balance is not something that the government can particularly control once it sets its objectives to be the maintenance of full employment.
7 Ingelesez: “So could a country always run a primary surplus or zero balance and still maintain full employment? The answer is yes.
If its external sector was continously generating injections of spending sufficient to match any desire to save overall by the private domestic sector net of interest payments from the government in relation to its outstanding debt then it is possible.
How likely is that for Greece?
Not very likely at all.”
8 Ingelesez: “So if the external balance was to remain close to zero and not return to its more typical levels (say if Greek imports remained modest and exports boomed) then it is possible that the interest payments alone would be sufficient to fund the private domestic sector’s excess spending over income.
It is possible. But how likely? Not very likely.”
9 Ikus Bill: A primary fiscal deficit Never ever?: http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com.es/2015/02/bill-primary-fiscal-deficit-never-ever.html.