i) Lehendabizi aholku garbi bat:
If Scotts keep the pound they forgo Independence
Ba daude aukera desberdinak.
“One country, one government, one central bank – that is the right principle. This, we have learnt, is particularly important in emergencies. Then the closest possible co-operation between the government, the central bank and the regulators is essential. In the next crisis the government may even require the central bank to finance the government outright. It has to be clear that, in this situation, the bank would be answerable to one government – the UK government.”
“A currency union (…) would be one in which Scotland and the Scots would have still less weight than now. They would retain access to a lender of last resort within the sterling area, but at a heavy price.”
ii) Bigarrenez, Eskoziaren monetaren aukerak
Financial Times aldizkariak eskatu zien zenbait ekonomialariri lau moneta aukera analizatzea: Britainia Handiarekiko moneta batasuna; libra esterlina erabiltzen segitzea baina Bank of England delakoaren babesik gabe; moneta berria erabiltzea; eta euroari lotzea.
Hemen soilik moneta propioaz esandakoa aipatuko dugu, ingelesez (oso erraza baita). Irakurleak erantzun guztiak eta osoak dauzka aipaturiko linkean.
Hona, bada, erantzunak.
Dame DeAnne Julius:
“An independent currency – let’s call it the “Scottie” – could work for an independent Scotland and it is the only available option that would allow the country to set its own monetary policy and make its own trade-offs with fiscal policy.”
“The option of an independent Scottish currency has been unfairly maligned. A free-floating currency would indeed be at risk of speculative attack but with the right mandate it could have substantial benefits as well. For example, were the Scottish central bank to target nominal gross domestic product instead of following an inflation target, a Scottish currency would provide a stable macroeconomic environment that adjusted to shocks automatically, keeping nominal spending levels (or aggregate demand) constant (in a similar way to the free banking option, albeit through a different mechanism). By keeping spending constant along a predictable growth level, an independent Scottish currency would lose purchasing power in recessions but would avoid the “musical chairs” problem of sharp drops in nominal GDP leading to unnecessary structural unemployment.”
“An independent Scotland could issue its own currency, supported by its own central bank. Many successful European countries of a similar scale have chosen this option, for example, Sweden and Denmark. Scotland would then have to choose how to manage its exchange rate. Given the importance of trade with the UK, shadowing the pound as Denmark does with the euro might be a good option, but this could be reassessed over time as Scotland’s industrial and economic strategy develops.”
“Despite the transitional costs, floating its own currency and pursuing inflation targeting would be the best bet for Scotland that is politically feasible (that is, assuming that the Scots do not want a currency union on terms the UK will offer – namely, tight fiscal controls). There are several other small open economies doing the same, and successfully: Sweden, Norway, New Zealand, for example. The flexibility and lender of last resort protection afforded by a new Central Bank of Scotland would allow the independent country to retain more of its financial sector (than with sterlingisation or joining the euro) and exploit that expertise.”
“The Scottish government says the goal of independence is to build a country that reflects Scotland’s “priorities as a society and values as a people”. If Scotland had its own currency, this would provide greatest economic sovereignty, which the Fiscal Commission acknowledges. It would make sense to peg the new Scottish currency to the UK pound to minimise transaction costs and allow for periodic adjustments as the economy evolves. A Scottish central bank could provide emergency liquidity to financial institutions and shape its own financial policy.”
“This is the only option that offers an independent Scotland an adjustment mechanism to address unfavourable movements in its competitiveness and provide maximum freedom of monetary and fiscal policy. This should have been plan-A and plan-B since it is the only plan financial markets will regard as credible.”