Gogoratu Grexit (Greek Exit)?¹

Egindako galderak:

“Grexit in four months?

Grezia eurogunetik irtetea lau hilabete barru?”

Erlojuak aurrera darrai…

i) Martxoak 2

Costas Lapavitsas-en artikulua: To beat austerity, Greece must break free from the euro².

Puntu nagusiak:

1. Greece will have to negotiate a long-term financing agreement in June, and has substantial debt repayments to make in July and August.

2. In February the Greek negotiating team fell into a trap of two parts:

   2. a. The first was the reliance of Greek banks on the European Central Bank for liquidity, without which they would stop functioning³.

   2. b. The second was the Greek state’s need for finance to service debts and pay wages⁴.

Lapavitsas-ek dioenez, hurrengo lau hilabeteak oso gogorrak izango dira: gobernuak zailtasun handiagoak izango ditu, egoera fiskala oso kezkagarria da, zerga errenta ari da porrot egiten…

… eta nahiz eta gobernuak hori guztia arrakastaz gainditu, datorren ekainean Greziak negoziazioak izango ditu, berriz, epe luzeko finantza akordio berri baterako.

Irtenbidea?

“The most vital step is to realise that the strategy of hoping to achieve radical change within the institutional framework of the common currency has come to an end. The strategy has given us electoral success by promising to release the Greek people from austerity without having to endure a major falling-out with the eurozone. Unfortunately, events have shown beyond doubt that this is impossible, and it is time that we acknowledged reality.”

Jendearen babesari eusteko, Syriza “must be truly radical.”

“… our government must approach the looming June negotiations with a very different frame of mind from February. The eurozone cannot be reformed and it will not become a “friendly” monetary union that supports working people.”

“Syriza could gain succour from the European left, but only if the left shakes off its own illusions and begins to propose sensible policies that might at last rid Europe of the absurdity that the common currency has become. There might then be a chance of properly lifting austerity across the continent.”

ii) Marxoak 18

Grexit-en kutsatzea berriz hasi da: Grexit Contagion Resumes After IMF Slams “Most Unhelpful Client Ever”⁵

Puntu nagusiak:

1. Arazo bat dago: “Despite the omnipotent buying power of the all-knowing ECB, peripheral European bond spreads are blowing out again (and stocks dropping) as Grexit fears start to spread contagiously across the continent.”

2. Troika ez da batere pozik: “The ‘Troika’ is not happy…International Monetary Fund officials told their euro-area colleagues that Greece is the most unhelpful country the organization has dealt with in its 70-year history, according to two people familiar with the talks.”

3. Arazorik handiena areagotuz doa: “Concern is growing among officials that the recalcitrance of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government may end up forcing Greece out of the euro, as the cash-strapped country refuses to take the action needed to trigger more financial support.”

iii) Martxoak 18

Europako Banku Zentrala (EBZ) prestatzen ari da Grexit-erako: ECB Prepares For Grexit, Anticipates 95% Loss On Greek Debt⁶

Puntu nagusia:

EBZ Grexit bat eratzen ari da, 2012an ukatu zuena: “… something Draghi lied about over and over in 2012 and directly in our face too…”

Izan ere,

1. The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing for a possible Greek exit from the euro zone.In internal model calculations, the central bank has already calculated the consequences of different scenarios on the prices of Greek government bonds.

2. Under this method, the value of Greek government debt – currently around € 320 billion – in the event of a sudden, “accident-like” Farewell to the Greeks from the Euro-zone (“Graccident”) shrink to around 5 percent of the principal amount.

3.If it were the Greek Government, however, to complete the withdrawal on the basis of ordered negotiations (“Grexit”), the ECB expects a residual value of government bonds by nearly 14 percent.

4. And should it even create the country to negotiate a recent haircut, without having to give up the single currency, the government securities could keep at least a quarter of its original value.

 

Dudatan egotekotan, irakur Glodman-en txostena (Goldman piece on whether Greece “can just print Drachmas“) zeren agian laster autoreak txosten hori zuzendu behar baitu)

Galderak:

“Grexit in three months?

Grezia eurogunetik irtetea hiru hilabete barru?”