Hasteko, ikus Troika? Ez aipatu arren!(1)1eta Troika? Ez aipatu arren!(2)2
1) New Deal antzekoa3
J. Galbraith, S. Holland eta J. Varoufakis-ek “Investment-led Recovery and Convergence Programme” proposatzen dute, ahaleginduz “to reverse the austerity mindset by increasing total spending and, as a consequence, directly addresses the core short-run problem of stagnant growth.”
Argudioak “New Deal in the US between 1933 and 1937” islatu nahi bide du.
Arazoa hauxe da: “The questions are whether the scale of the program would be sufficient to generate a recovery,given how large the output gaps are at present, and whether a massive investment program could be absorbed without creating damaging imbalances4.”
New Deal5 vs Modest Proposal6.
2) Kanpoko pizgarriak
Mitchell-ek argi dauka:
“As I explained in this blog – Greece – two alternative views – Greece will not achieve growth with balanced fiscal positions.”
Galdera zuzena: “How does the Party plan to fill the massive output gap that Greece has?”
Eta erantzuna: “Output gaps can only be closed by increasing output. That requires increased net public spending not balanced fiscal positions or even surpluses.”
Zergak?: “Purchasing power taken of the ‘rich tax evaders’ might be at the expense of saving but will still not deliver the required net boost.”
Datu batzuk: “Greece has lost 25 per cent of its real GDP since 2008. While potential output has also surely declined (as firms have scrapped productive capital) in the face of a massive decline in the investment ratio, it remains there is a huge unused capacity in the country. The mass unemployment is testament to that.”
Defizit publikoa:”While there might be good reasons for redistributing the existing fiscal outlays across the competing interests, the overwhelming fact is that the Greek public deficit has to rise substantially – by multiples of the current Stability and Growth Pact fiscal limits of 3 per cent.”
3) Politika fiskala
“Running a fiscally-neutral policy to help people will only partially stimulate overall spending in the nation. The reality is that Greece needs a public stimulus that is way beyond anything that is allowed under the current rules.”
Izan ere, “A balanced budget position doesn’t resolve that issue.”
4) Erabaki soil bat
“… the Greeks can fix that in a single decision – leave the Eurozone and restore currency sovereignty.”
5) Agendatik at
Baina goiko erabaki hori agendatik at dago, “because the progressive left in Greece appear to have bought the line that the ‘European Project’ requires a monetary union and being in the Eurozone is a sign of sophistication…“
5) Argi baino argiago…
“But the idea that Greece will return to some backwater if it is not part of the Eurozone is a delusion.”
Ondorioak
i) Zer ari da gertatzen?
“After several weeks since the election we are still not exactly clear what is happening.”
ii) Arrazoizko ondorio garbia
“But the only reasonable conclusion to date is that Syriza’s stated policy aims are not mutually consistent and that is why they have given significant ground to the Troika – er, The Institutions!”
iii) Ezin dira errentako zein ekitateko nola hazkundeko handitzeak gauzatu, Bruselak defizit fiskalak markatuz
“They cannot achieve the (motherhood) aspirations of higher growth and increased incomes and equity while allowing Brussels to dominate the magnitude of their fiscal deficits7.”
iv) Indar progresiboek ez dute biztanleria hezi berorren moneta euroa izateak dakarren kalteaz
“Their policy pledges resonate with the suffering population. But the reality is that the population is not being educated by progressive forces about the self-inflicted damage that retaining the euro as their currency is causing.”
Argi gera bedi:
“Political parties that make it a root-and-branch commitment to remain in the Eurozone do not help.”
Berriz, Warren Mosler-ek dioenez,
“Bill, glad to see we’re in good company on the collaboration issue!”
3 Ikus Don’t mention the war! er the Troika…: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=30293.
4 Hauxe gehituz: “Juncker’s plan is so small in scale that it will not do the trick. And Germany will not agree to any larger Eurobonds-type scheme. The authors merely assert that the scale of the program would be sufficient. If Germany is excluded, real GDP in 2013 for the remaining Eurozone nations was some 4 per cent below its 2007 level (some 253 billion euros). Similarly, investment was about 27 per cent lower. Even assuming a very generous spending multiplier, the injection that would be required to make up that gap would dwarf the previous allocations that the EIB has handled.”
Bilioi amerikar bat: 109
5 Ingelesez: “… the US program was heavily weighted towards providing relief to unemployed and impoverished citizens in the form of cash payments and direct public sector job creation.”
6 Ingelesez: New Deal… “… is outside of the ambit of the ‘Modest Proposal’ and thus it is questionable whether an investment-led answer to the deficient total spending will generate the gains necessary to lift household consumption in say Greece, where in 2013, it was around 25 per cent below its 2007 value.”
7 Hauxe gehituz: “They cannot achieve their aims with a fixed exchange rate (effectively no independent exchange rate) with Germany as a partner in the monetary union.”
