BRICS 2024 (goi-bilera) (3)

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the much anticipated uh bricks meeting

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which was taking place in uh Russia in

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the city of Kazan uh is over uh and uh

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as expected uh it did create a bit of a

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splash uh in fact around the world eyes

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were on on the meeting in Russia uh not

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just because China Russia India uh and

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Brazil and South Africa were going to be

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there but there were new members bricks

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is emerging as a new club of sorts which

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is not limited to any one particular

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geography like SEO which is basically uh

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an Asian Continental kind of uh grouping

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the bricks is that may that was far more

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Global uh in its approach uh and in a

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sense the bricks is also being seen as a

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kind of an alternate Forum uh to the

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rich countries Forum which is the G7

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many people um are expecting that uh

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despite it being a very disparate block

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uh it presents a kind of an alternative

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to the Western

1:10

dominated global economic system you

1:13

think that the

1:15

dollarization is imminent I think uh it

1:20

could be the dream of some people but I

1:23

don’t see it happen on ground uh so I

1:25

think we need to be careful about where

1:27

we might be going uh in you know in the

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context of the bricks relations with

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China are really not going anywhere uh

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just and this is despite the fact that

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just uh on the eve of the brick Summit

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there was a kind of an understanding

1:45

that was reached uh On the Border

1:47

standoff it’s a very very tentative

1:50

small step which has been taken uh in on

1:53

on the LA a decoupling would be good for

1:57

India uh shifting Manufacturing from

2:00

China to India would be good for India I

2:02

agree with all of that but let’s not kid

2:05

ourselves and imagine that we can cut

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ourselves away off from China completely

2:21

[Music]

2:30

bricks meeting which was taking place in

2:33

uh Russia in the city of Kazan uh is

2:36

over uh and uh as expected uh it did

2:41

create a bit of a splash uh in fact

2:45

around the world eyes were on on the

2:47

meeting in Russia uh not just because

2:50

China Russia India uh and Brazil and

2:53

South Africa were going to be there but

2:54

there were new members which were also

2:56

going to attend um and the Russians uh

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in a sense were using this forum uh to

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declare to the Western world that all

3:07

the efforts to isolate them uh have come

3:10

a basically have come a proper they

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might be isolated in the west uh but the

3:15

West is a very tiny geography U it might

3:18

it’s not tiny in terms of uh its

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economic heft or its military press uh

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but uh purely in terms of geographies in

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terms of the number of people they

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represent it’s a very tiny uh Place uh

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and there are many more countries uh

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which are ready to engage with Russia

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not all those countries might uh agree

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with or endorse uh the Russian war uh in

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Ukraine uh they might have their

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reservations uh but that does not mean

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that they are going to uh disengage from

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Russia isolate Russia not have any kind

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of contact with Russia or follow the

3:57

Western lead on Russia so uh so the

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Russians did collect uh many people out

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there many countries uh and in a sense

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have made their point so that was uh one

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uh one uh point of focus uh on what uh

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the bricks meeting was going to be all

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about uh but I think it’s also important

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to realize that bricks is emerging as a

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new club of sorts which is not limited

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to any one particular geography like SEO

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which is basically uh an Asian

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Continental kind of uh grouping of

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countries the bricks is that M that was

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far more Global uh in its

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approach in a sense the bricks is also

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being seen as a kind of an alternate

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Forum uh to the rich countries Forum

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which is the

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G7 and it’s many people tend to project

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it as uh as a a kind of a G7 block of

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the global South but I think that’s a

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bit of a stretch uh because let’s face

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it uh the G7 uh are a group of countries

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which are of course uh very prosperous

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uh but uh I think as a group uh the G7

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becomes extremely important because uh

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it it uh it uh controls the global

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economy in many ways if you to add up

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the GDP uh of of the G7 countries uh

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it’s it’s a huge amount uh in the case

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of bricks uh you can add up the GDP of

5:40

all the countries but it still does not

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amount to the same thing but more

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importantly apart from the Quantum of

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GDP or populations which uh the G7 and

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the brics countries represent I think it

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is important that the G7 countries uh

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coordinate their economic and their

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strategic policies very very very

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closely they are all on the same page

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and that can certainly not be said about

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the bricks countries forget about the

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original members even the new entrance

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to bricks are not going to be entirely

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on the same page uh either on matters of

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economic policies uh or for that matter

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on strategic issues and then of course

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uh within the brics block there are

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countries which have uh have have

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serious problems with each other and of

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course uh the problems between India and

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China uh are uh you know one example of

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the kind of problems that are going to

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be in any kind of a bricks grouping uh

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trying to replicate a G7 model for the

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global

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South one interesting part of course is

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uh and I think this is important uh for

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many Indians who love to uh do a lot of

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chest thumping is that uh the Chinese

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despite the fact that they are in many

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ways the number two power in the world

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right now both in terms of military

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press in terms of technology in terms of

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their economic footprint U and yet you

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have the Chinese uh say that they are a

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developing country that they are members

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of the global South uh they are they are

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still not ready to declare themselves as

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a kind of a

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superpower uh and and just dapose that

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uh against the kind of boasts that come

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out from many uh people in India who

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keep pretending as though we are a kind

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of an emerging superpower which is quite

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some distance away if at all uh so I

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think we need to be careful on how we

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look at these forums how we look at the

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realities of uh global politics uh and

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uh the uh the power differentials which

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actually exist on the ground not in our

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heads but on the ground uh and I think

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uh this is one uh takeaway for me

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especially in the uh in the U in in the

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statement which the Chinese president

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made the opening statement during his

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bilateral with Mr Modi but I’ll come to

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that in a bit I think it it is I think

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what is critical as far as bricks is

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concerned is that many people um are

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expecting that uh despite it being a

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very disparate block uh it present a

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kind of an alternative to the Western

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dominated global economic system I my

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own sense is that it might well emerge

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to be one but at least not for the

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foreseeable future uh I don’t see it uh

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either replace or give a very stiff

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competition to the Western uh dominated

8:53

uh economic system uh there is uh there

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are some achievements uh which the Bri

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have uh and I think the most notable is

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of course the new development Bank uh

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Prime Minister Modi also spoke about it

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uh in his opening remarks at the Brooks

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Forum um but apart from that there isn’t

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a whole lot of other stuff that the

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bricks has been able to do in terms of

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coordinating uh you know actions between

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these countries coming on the same page

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uh that’s still not happening so at at

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one level you can call it a kind of of a

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new club uh which is still to set the

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rules of the

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club but I think what a lot of people

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are looking at is and there is a lot of

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talk about it uh they are looking at a

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kind of an alternative emerging to the

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dollar which is the Global Currency

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really uh and there is a lot of talk of

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dollarization there is there is an image

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of a a bricks currency note floating

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around um but again you know people

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really haven’t thought this through uh

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despite the fact that the G7 countries

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or Western Europe and the United States

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and its allies uh are have very closely

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coordinate their policies uh they trade

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with each other most of their trade is

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with each other despite all of that they

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are still not a single currency the

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dollar might be the most accepted

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currency but it’s still not the single

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they still don’t have a single currency

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uh so to think that there will be a kind

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of a single acceptable

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currency uh within the bricks block I

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think that’s uh that’s quite some

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distance away it it’s not going to be

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something which will happen in the next

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few months maybe even in the next few

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years uh unless of course uh the

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Americans who are quite app to do it

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self-destruct uh they are ready to

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commit economic suicide with their

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profligacy uh and uh they destroy the

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domination of the dollar uh if that is

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happening uh if that happens then all

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bets are off but if that is not

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happening then to think that the

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dollarization is imminent I think uh is

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could be the dream of some people but I

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don’t see it happen on ground uh so I

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think we need to be careful about where

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we might be going u in you know in the

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context of the bricks uh grouping but

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the bricks grouping uh and the talk of

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uh a single currency or dollarization I

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think from the Indian Point of View also

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becomes critical because we have to uh

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understand what exactly are we talking

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about if you if you uh displace the

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dollar it could well be uh

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jumping from the frying pan Into the

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Fire because what is the dollar going to

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be replaced by if the Dollar’s dominance

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is going to be replaced by the dominance

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of the Yuan uh the Chinese currency then

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uh is that something that India will be

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comfortable with uh I don’t see how

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India could accept or desire a system in

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which the dollar is uh displaced by the

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Yuan uh so I think we need to be very

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careful about what we are talking about

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what we are trying to get into um and

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and whether we are in a position that if

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the dollar was to be dethroned and the

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Yuan was to become uh in a manner of

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speaking the reserve currency of the

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world uh would how would that serve

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India’s

12:56

interests so I think we need to be very

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careful on that especially because our

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relations with China are really not

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going anywhere uh just and this is

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despite the fact that just uh on the eve

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of the brick Summit there was a kind of

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an understanding that was reached uh On

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the Border standoff it’s a very very

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tentative small step which has been

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taken uh in on on the Lac uh some

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petring is going to be allowed uh some

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uh standard of operating procedures are

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being worked out um and there is a hope

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that this is a kind of uh the first step

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uh towards uh you know bringing things

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back on an even Keel uh in so far as the

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LSC is concerned now that’s the hope uh

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which has been expressed by the external

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affairs minister which has been

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expressed by uh the Army Chief uh and

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and and other uh senior officials U and

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there is this hope that once trust and

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confidence starts

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building up between the two sides then

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the 3D uh formula which is uh

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disengagement deescalation and

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deinduction of troops who had been you

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know who are engaged in a eyeball to

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eyeball kind of a situation along the

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borders uh and which has created a kind

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of instability along the LSC uh will uh

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actually uh

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fructify but uh you know while while uh

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any step which leads to a reduction in

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tension between India and China along

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the LSC is to be welcomed uh while uh I

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don’t entirely disagree with people who

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say that look you cannot completely

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isolate China uh that despite the fact

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that we might desire decoupling our

14:47

economic dependence on China in terms of

14:50

the number of goods that we import from

14:52

China a decoupling would be good for

14:55

India uh shifting manufacturing from

14:58

China to India India would be good for

15:00

India I agree with all of that but let’s

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not kid ourselves and imagine that we

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can cut ourselves away off from China

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completely uh we have to accept that in

15:12

the global economic system which

15:15

currently obtains uh China remains a

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very critical player and we are not

15:20

really doing China a favor by buying

15:22

stuff from them if you are buying stuff

15:24

from them uh it is it is whether it is I

15:28

I and I don’t mean uh you know buying uh

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you know uh the the the the the icons

15:35

which we use for Diwali the ditties that

15:38

uh we import from China for Diwali or

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the Diwali lights I don’t mean or the

15:43

toys that we import from China I don’t

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mean that kind of stuff I mean uh more

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uh substantive kind of stuff that we

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import from China is something that our

15:53

industry requires it’s something that uh

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we use to uh then uh make more products

15:59

which we sell to the rest of the world

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so uh so we need to understand that

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adopting a very mercantilist approach on

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trade with China is not necessarily uh

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in India’s favor that does not mean that

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we do not aspire to decouple our economy

16:16

from China to uh to find uh sources

16:20

other than China uh in a range of uh

16:23

products that we need uh for our own

16:26

development uh and of course uh ensuring

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that we keep China out of uh critical

16:33

infrastructure uh once again uh how

16:37

serious we are about critical

16:38

infrastructure is again a matter of

16:40

debate uh in a country where uh the Navy

16:44

and the Air Force take pride in the fact

16:46

that they have signed a contract with a

16:49

foreign company an American company um

16:53

to uh a taxi company to uh ensure that

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uh you know uh there are personalized

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profiles of all Indian Air Force and

17:03

Indian Navy officers and their families

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the kind of mindlessness with which we

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operate uh then makes you ask whether

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any purpose is really going to be served

17:14

by uh shutting off uh you know China

17:17

from entering into India’s critical

17:19

infrastructure if you are opening

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yourself to the United States in this

17:24

way uh even if it’s to a company of

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course if we imagine that us companies

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are completely independent of their

17:32

governments then you know if we want to

17:33

kid ourselves we can but the fact of the

17:36

matter remains that in the real world

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that’s not the way things happen so uh

17:43

but to come back to China I think it is

17:45

important as far as I am concerned to

17:47

keep China out of critical

17:48

infrastructure but we should be careful

17:50

not to cut our nose to spite China’s

17:53

face uh so uh that that seems to be the

17:56

direction in which the government uh is

17:58

is moving but it needs to do a lot more

18:01

to attract trade and Industry back to

18:03

India uh the especially the ones who are

18:06

leaving China or uh who have become more

18:10

skeptical about China uh in uh in recent

18:15

years uh that is as far as China is

18:17

concerned uh or or the economic

18:19

relations with China are concerned but

18:21

look uh there is the Strategic Dimension

18:24

which we tried to sort out in this

18:26

particular meeting between President G

18:28

and Minister Modi uh so like I said if

18:31

the tensions have come out that’s good

18:33

but if we really think that you know the

18:38

re-engagement at the Diplomatic level

18:40

with the special invoice uh going to uh

18:42

restart discussions on uh settling the

18:46

Border question uh they’ve had

18:48

discussions plenty of rounds of

18:50

discussions in the past and a fat lot of

18:53

good it’s done uh there has really been

18:55

no understanding even the understandings

18:57

that had been re reached with China in

18:59

the ’90s uh and uh even later um have

19:03

been undone by the events which happened

19:06

in 2020 the Chinese biger has ensured uh

19:10

that no amount of understanding which

19:13

you have with them is worth anything

19:15

because the day the Chinese realize that

19:17

they are in a position or they are in a

19:19

mood to push you poke you they will do

19:21

it uh which actually raises the question

19:25

of whether um we can actually start de

19:29

inducting troops of which have been

19:32

deployed along the LC uh again I give

19:36

the Cargill example we used to uh we

19:38

used to withdraw from the Carill Heights

19:41

the pakistanis would do the same and

19:43

then one fine day the Pakistani is

19:45

decided that they will uh they will

19:48

raise us to those Heights and occupy the

19:50

Heights and then uh threaten India

19:53

security which is what led to the

19:54

Cargill War uh this is exactly what the

19:57

Chinese have done in 20 uh so are we now

20:02

in in a mood to uh once again start uh

20:06

trusting China that uh maybe 5 years 10

20:10

years 15 years from now they will not do

20:12

something similar what they did in 2020

20:15

how many times are we going to fool

20:16

ourselves so uh and if we are not in a

20:19

mood to fool ourselves anymore if we

20:22

become a lot more realistic then

20:26

U Can there be deinduction

20:29

or redeployment of the troops that are

20:31

along the borders especially given the

20:34

fact that India does not have the same

20:36

terrain Advantage which China has to uh

20:40

mobilize troops uh very fast nor does

20:43

India have the infrastructure that the

20:45

Chinese have built to mobilize troops uh

20:47

and we should not forget that uh in the

20:50

last four years the Chinese have

20:51

developed a lot more infrastructure

20:53

including border settlements which allow

20:56

them even if they were to vate those

20:58

places uh which allows them to reoccupy

21:01

those places relatively quickly uh which

21:03

would take us a long time so so I think

21:06

there are going to be serious questions

21:08

uh on on these uh issues going

21:18

forward uh and this brings me to the

21:21

final point which I wanted to cover uh

21:23

in today’s podcast which is uh the

21:26

Pakistan factor in the context of Bricks

21:29

now Pakistan wants entry into the bricks

21:31

there have been some reports that India

21:34

has agreed uh to endorse Pakistan’s

21:38

entry into bricks I am myself quite

21:41

skeptical whether the Indian government

21:44

is going to be so foolish as to allow

21:47

Pakistan to enter U the bricks Forum uh

21:51

because India does exercise a kind of a

21:53

veto on who the new entrance are going

21:56

to be uh and the prime minister himself

21:59

has said that it has to be by a

22:02

consensus and wishes of the original

22:05

members need to be respected in this

22:08

regard uh but still those rumors or

22:12

those reports are persisting that India

22:14

might have agreed or might agree to

22:16

allow Pakistan into the bricks uh

22:18

Frankly Speaking uh what’s the quick

22:21

proo what are we getting from the

22:24

pakistanis in return and you know

22:26

India’s track record has been a bismal

22:29

in this regard we have always thought

22:31

that you know if you’re nice to the

22:34

enemy uh then it will yield dividends

22:37

going forward little realizing that in

22:41

international relations especially with

22:43

enemy countries like Pakistan uh no good

22:46

deed that you do will go unpunished the

22:49

pakistanis have proved it time and time

22:51

again uh We’ve allowed them entry back

22:54

into the Commonwealth at one point of

22:56

time into the N we facilitated it a

22:58

number of other forums uh and and

23:01

finally it served no purpose as far as

23:03

we are concerned so if we are now going

23:06

to give a nod to Pakistan’s entry into

23:08

bricks uh what is the quit proo now is

23:12

the quit proo that okay the pakistanies

23:14

have agreed that uh you know they will

23:17

restore uh relations at the level of the

23:20

high

23:21

Commissioners which is something they

23:23

will have to do if they want any kind of

23:25

a relationship with us anyways now for

23:28

the crumbs of allowing a High

23:31

Commissioner level relationship to be

23:34

restored uh we are giving the Pakistani

23:38

entry into a forum uh which which is

23:42

going to be permanent uh I I would

23:46

imagine that this is the the epitome of

23:49

uh strategic myopia uh if at all this

23:52

was to happen uh of course if the

23:55

pakistanis were to give us something

23:57

really substantial

23:58

which is what we want from them whether

24:01

it’s on Kashmir whether it’s on a range

24:04

of other issues uh then certainly uh

24:07

India can look uh at at uh endorsing

24:10

their entry into bricks as a quit proo

24:13

but short of that uh for the crumbs of a

24:16

High Commissioner level relationship or

24:18

the piddly little trade that we’ll have

24:21

with the pakistanis to uh to facilitate

24:24

their entry into the bricks uh would be

24:26

strategic per blindness of the worst

24:29

kind so I I I hope and I trust that the

24:33

Indians have learned their lessons uh

24:35

from the past Foles that they have made

24:38

in this regard uh but you know with

24:40

India you can never be sure uh because

24:42

there is so much virtue signaling

24:44

especially which happens among Indian

24:46

diplomats who want to pretend that you

24:48

know uh we are always going to be nice

24:51

we are always going to be very expensive

24:54

uh we are not going to be mean-minded

24:55

this is not being mean-minded this is

24:58

this is strategic being strategically

25:01

myopic uh so I hope at least at the

25:04

political level there is enough Savvy uh

25:07

to uh to ensure that uh there is going

25:10

to be no endorsement of Pakistan unless

25:12

of course there is a solid quit proo uh

25:16

on a very substantive issues U and and

25:20

without that to endorse Pakistan uh

25:23

would be a blunder uh of of great

25:26

magnitude

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bricks pay doubted as an alternative to

0:23

the US dollar has the potential to

0:26

revolutionize Global Finance by allowing

0:29

bricks Nations to to make crossb

0:31

payments more efficiently using their

0:33

own currencies but what exactly is

0:36

bricks pay and why is it so significant

0:39

well bricks pay is a proposed

0:41

decentralized payment system developed

0:44

by brics Nations Brazil Russia India

0:47

China and South Africa recently expanded

0:50

to include Egypt Ethiopia Iran and the

0:53

UAE it aims to enable crossb

0:56

transactions in local currencies without

0:58

depending on the US dollar or

1:00

traditional Western Le payment system

1:03

like the

1:07

Swift geopolitical tensions particularly

1:10

Western sanctions on countries like

1:12

Russia have accelerated the push for a

1:14

new payment system after the invasion of

1:17

Ukraine in 2022 Russia was cut off from

1:20

International Capital markets and had

1:22

its dollar and Euro reserves Frozen this

1:25

financial isolation LED Russia to call

1:27

for an alternative to the current global

1:29

financi Financial system dominated by

1:32

institutions like the IMF and the World

1:34

Bank which they argue favor Western

1:41

interests the brick space system

1:43

leverages the payment infrastructure

1:45

already in place within brics Nations

1:48

for example Russia’s Me Network and

1:51

India’s UPI bricks pay will use

1:53

blockchain technology to validate

1:55

transactions ensuring security and

1:58

transparency it is designed to be faster

2:01

cheaper and free from external

2:03

interference one of the key features of

2:05

bricks pay is its ability to facilitate

2:08

transactions in local currencies

2:10

including the Russian Ruble and Indian

2:12

rupee this means that businesses and

2:15

individuals in bricks Nations can make

2:17

crossborder payments without needing to

2:19

convert their currencies into US dollars

2:22

the new system brings numerous benefits

2:25

it eliminates the risks associated with

2:27

the traditional banking system such as

2:29

credit risks and delays caused by

2:31

Reliance on Western dominated platforms

2:33

like the Swift by using decentralized

2:36

Ledger technology it also enhances the

2:39

security and efficiency of transactions

2:42

Bricks now represents 45% of the global

2:45

population and 37% of the world economy

2:48

with the expansion of bricks and the

2:50

development of bricks pay these nations

2:52

are pushing for a multi-polar world

2:54

order challenging the dominance of the

2:57

dollar in global trade often seen as a

2:59

geopolitical rival to the G7 block of

3:02

advanced economies bricks aims to create

3:05

a financial system that works for

3:07

emerging markets offering alternatives

3:10

to Western Le institutions like the IMF

3:12

and the World Bank as the world

3:15

increasingly move towards digitization

3:17

systems like bricks pay could become

3:19

more critical in shaping the future of

3:22

Global Payments and boost the efforts of

3:25

dollarization by fostering Financial

3:27

cooperation between member states and

3:30

reducing dependency on the US dollar

3:32

bricks pay could pave the way for a more

3:34

decentralized and Equitable Financial

3:36

system for more news and updates keep

3:39

watching live mint

3:43

[Applause]

3:43

[Music]

0:00

the bricks countries the original bricks

0:02

plus the new members of bricks are far

0:04

away from having anything that can rival

0:07

the dollars dominance the unified bricks

0:09

currency Russia India China Brazil

0:11

getting together and sharing currency

0:13

that’s not going to happen can the

0:14

bricks countries challenge the dominance

0:16

of the US dollar well Russian President

0:19

Vladimir Putin and his bricks Partners

0:21

want to do just that but is their goal

0:24

realistic Josh lipsky senior director of

0:27

the Atlantic council’s geoeconomic

0:30

Center spoke to DW business on the

0:32

sidelines of this year’s IMF World Bank

0:35

group annual meeting he talks about

0:38

whether the brics countries can come up

0:40

with an alternative to the dollar and

0:42

reshape Global Finance take a

0:48

[Music]

0:53

look let’s start in Russia where

0:55

Vladimir Putin of course is holding a

0:57

brick Summit now he sees bricks as on

1:01

the path towards ending the dominance of

1:03

the dollar is he right is there a path

1:06

towards ending the dominance of the US

1:08

dollar I think the short answer is no

1:10

but we should pay attention to what he’s

1:12

trying to do so we are here at the IMF

1:14

World Bank annual meetings International

1:17

multilateralism economic policymaking

1:19

but as you say there’s another important

1:20

global economic and Global political

1:22

event happening the brick Summit in

1:24

Russia and one of Putin’s goals for this

1:26

Summit is to create alternatives to the

1:29

dollar now that is very complicated and

1:32

hard to do and the bricks countries the

1:34

original bricks plus the new members of

1:36

bricks are far away from having anything

1:38

that can rival the Dollar’s dominance

1:40

but what they’re focused on is not an

1:42

alternative currency as much as

1:44

alternative payment systems and that is

1:46

important because here we’re not talking

1:48

about a unified bricks currency Russia

1:50

India China Brazil getting together and

1:52

sharing currency that’s not going to

1:54

happen for a whole range of monetary and

1:55

fiscal reasons but is it possible that

1:57

they could build bilateral channels to

2:00

exchange rubles in Yuan and RI between

2:03

their Banks and not use dollars that is

2:05

possible in fact our research at the

2:07

Atlantic Council shows that’s already

2:08

happening so that’s the difference

2:10

between payment systems and currency and

2:12

why we in the US and countries around

2:14

the world should pay close attention to

2:15

those Ambitions and to what extent would

2:19

you say that they’re all on the same

2:20

page when it comes to ending the

2:22

dominance of the dollar or Payment

2:24

Systems they’re not on the same page

2:26

their unifying principle is that they

2:27

don’t like something they don’t like

2:29

Reliance on the dollar but there’s no

2:31

agreement on what they do like now the

2:33

question is could they build a network

2:35

that’s similar to Swift or chips the way

2:38

banks around the world communicate with

2:40

each other now and transfer money that

2:42

would be very complicated because the

2:44

dollar is the lifeline the liquidity of

2:46

the global economic system and there’s

2:48

no currency even the Chinese Yuan that

2:50

can come close to rivaling that now so

2:52

they agree on what they dislike but they

2:54

don’t agree on what they like and I

2:56

think that’s one of the many hurdles

2:57

they face if they would ever try to

2:59

challenge the dollar but it’s important

3:00

to say they don’t want to replace the

3:02

dollar they just want to lessen the

3:04

Dollar’s influence in the global economy

3:06

so the dollar share of global reserves

3:08

has only dwindled slightly over the past

3:10

two decades the Yuan has increased

3:12

slightly but there’s still a huge gap

3:14

you know 50% to 4% so if they can close

3:17

that Gap a little then I think they see

3:19

some success so it’s not about replacing

3:21

as much as it is might be challenging or

3:23

ebbing some of the dominance now

3:25

speaking of not being quite on the same

3:28

page India has said that

3:30

it will not Target the dollar so why the

3:32

difference in Attitude from India in

3:33

particular Well India is a US partner in

3:36

many ways I mean compare India’s

3:38

bilateral relationship with the United

3:40

States to Russia’s relationship with the

3:41

United States right now totally

3:43

different geopolitically trade

3:45

partnership with India economic

3:47

partnership diplomatic partnership part

3:49

of the Quad Arrangement National

3:51

Security Arrangement the US has that

3:52

India is part of so all of these are

3:54

reasons that you know I I don’t think

3:56

India sees itself geopolitically in the

3:59

same camp as Russia or even China India

4:01

would like to be part of the US system

4:04

also part of the bricks system it

4:06

doesn’t want to be forced to choose and

4:08

that’s one of the reasons I think they

4:09

are far away from having any interest in

4:12

doing a sort of alternative currency

4:14

they rely heavily on the dollar as do

4:15

economies around the world now you say

4:18

they’re far away but have they made any

4:21

progress towards challenging the dollar

4:23

at all yeah well I think it’s important

4:24

to note that since Russia’s invasion of

4:26

Ukraine we have shown at the Atlantic

4:28

Council there’s been a doubling of

4:30

interest in wholesale Central Bank

4:31

digital currency and basically what that

4:34

means is a way that Banks can transfer

4:36

money between themselves settle almost

4:39

instantly and not touch dollars now does

4:42

that challenge the global role of the

4:43

dollar no but it does potentially make

4:46

it easier to evade sanctions and so it’s

4:48

important to understand that there has

4:50

been some progress made by China Russia

4:52

and other countries in establishing

4:54

bilateral channels even though these are

4:56

small in scale they’re only many in

4:58

Pilot stage they are making progress

5:00

from where they were a year or two years

5:01

ago and US policy makers are aware of

5:04

that they’re conscious of it and they

5:05

understand it can affect how we use the

5:07

dollar in a national security role now

5:10

speaking of alternative Payment Systems

5:12

have are the Chinese any closer to

5:14

getting in alternative to Swift they are

5:17

closer and they have a couple different

5:19

options here one is sips this is their

5:21

interbank system it’s important to note

5:24

that sips unlike Swift is both a

5:26

messaging and settlement system so Swift

5:29

messages Swift is 50 years old that was

5:31

the best technology at the time and then

5:32

it’s settled through a different network

5:34

usually chips sips China’s program it

5:37

only has about 10% of the banks that

5:39

Swift has online but it does settlement

5:41

and messaging at the same time and

5:43

that’s grown significantly over the past

5:45

year so they’re making progress there

5:47

they’re also making progress on a

5:48

project called embridge embridge is a

5:50

crossb wholesale Central Bank digital

5:53

currency program that connects the

5:54

People’s Bank of China Hong Kong

5:56

Thailand UAE and recently Saudi Arabia

5:59

we think more countries will join this

6:00

year so the bottom line is they are

6:02

making progress this is lows scale

6:04

volume $10 million $20 million we’re not

6:07

talking about the Global Financial

6:08

system like Swift is but it’s different

6:10

than where it was a year or two years

6:12

ago and that’s why I said at the

6:13

beginning it’s important we pay

6:14

attention to

6:15

it do they have a point is it good for

6:19

one currency to be so dominant globally

6:22

well that’s an interesting question it

6:24

probably depends on your perspective and

6:25

where you come from you know we the

6:28

dollar has been the world’s Reserve

6:29

currency for almost a century now I

6:31

would argue that that has been broadly

6:33

good for the global economy it has

6:35

created stability we have rule of law we

6:38

have we don’t have Capital controls in

6:39

this country so people can invest in and

6:41

out so the dollar has been an important

6:43

Lifeline to the global economy it’s

6:45

provided critical liquidity when

6:47

countries have needed it it’s been a

6:48

stabilizing Force for the global economy

6:51

typically it makes sense that there

6:52

would be one dominant Reserve currency

6:55

could you live in a world of

6:56

multipolarity where there are few

6:58

Reserve currencies is that better or

7:00

worse it depends on the country

7:01

perspective and it’s a mix of not just

7:03

macroeconomics but National Security so

7:05

from a US perspective of course the

7:07

dollar is the world’s Reserve currency

7:08

as a positive other countries may feel

7:10

differently but I bet if you ask most

7:12

countries here at the IMF World Bank

7:14

annual meetings would they rather keep

7:16

the dollar as the world’s Reserve

7:17

currency or have an alternative my guess

7:19

is most but not all would say we would

7:21

keep the dollar as the world’s Reserve

7:22

currency because it’s a stabilizing

7:24

force in the global economy now you’ve

7:27

already answered this a little but what

7:29

what are the biggest hurdles towards

7:31

challenging the dollar in the way that

7:33

these countries are trying to do well

7:34

one of the biggest hurdles is liquidity

7:37

right so the dollar is widely available

7:39

you can access it this is what makes it

7:42

part of the lifeblood of the global

7:43

economy no other currency certainly not

7:46

China’s with its capital controls can

7:48

provide that sort of ample opportunity

7:51

to get money when you need it and that’s

7:52

why people go to Dollars whenever they

7:54

need it so there’s no currency that can

7:56

challenge that you also need rule of law

7:59

in the country right so you can

8:01

understand if there’s a conflict if

8:02

there’s a dispute it’s going to be

8:03

litigated and settled in a fair way the

8:05

US provides that you need stability in

8:08

the fiscal house now you could argue the

8:09

Us and other countries don’t have enough

8:11

stability in their fiscal house giving

8:13

rise of public debt but comparatively

8:15

because of our ability to issue

8:17

treasuries and the world’s interest in

8:19

buying treasuries we have a very strong

8:21

fiscal situation compared to other

8:22

countries and so all of those things

8:24

makes the dollar very hard to challenge

8:26

in the near term there’s just no viable

8:28

alternative but again that doesn’t mean

8:30

we shouldn’t pay attention for Count’s

8:32

interest in finding an alternative

8:34

that’s important we should take that

8:35

seriously from a US perspective why are

8:37

countryes looking for alternative to the

8:38

dollar what does that mean and instead

8:41

of just looking at what they’re doing

8:42

and saying we don’t like that we should

8:44

reinvest in our systems in the United

8:46

States upgrade and modernize the Swift

8:48

system for example which as I said is 50

8:50

years old that’s the way we should

8:52

approach this from a US perspective

8:53

don’t complain about what other

8:54

countries are doing double down on your

8:57

strength which is still the dollar which

8:58

is still the Global Reserve currency by

9:00

far and when you say it’s important to

9:03

look at why they’re doing that and what

9:05

does it mean what is the answer well

9:06

there are a lot of answers and it

9:07

depends on the country you speak to and

9:09

their interest I think one answer

9:11

countries would give is the way the US

9:13

has used sanctions especially over the

9:14

past few years they see that and it

9:16

makes them concerned from their

9:18

perspective what if the US would

9:20

disagree with something we did

9:21

geopolitically militarily could the

9:23

dollar then be used and would that hurt

9:25

our economy do I as a policy maker in

9:27

our country need to find an alternative

9:30

and it’s either with dollar countries

9:33

dollar they will use the dollar but they

9:35

like

9:36

toass around the dollar if they need it

9:39

I think that’s one of the drivers of why

9:41

countries are certainly exploring

9:43

Alternatives especially in the last few

9:44

years now I certainly don’t want to skip

9:47

over talking about why we’re here today

9:50

um of course we’re at the annual

9:51

meetings the world economic Outlook is

9:54

something that the whole world looks at

9:57

how do you think the upcoming election

9:59

in two weeks is going to change that

10:02

Outlook yeah well that is the big

10:04

question for this week it’s certainly

10:06

what’s everyone’s chatting about here

10:07

even though it’s not on the official

10:09

agenda I think for purposes of the

10:11

global economy there are a few things

10:12

one is trade and tariff policy obviously

10:15

the candidates have a different Outlook

10:16

when it comes to tariff former president

10:18

Trump has been clear about his policy

10:20

proposals to do sweeping tariffs That

10:22

Matters to every country who is here

10:24

today because they could potentially

10:25

find themselves in an escalating trade

10:27

friction with the United States next

10:29

year the other is who’s the next Fed

10:31

chair going to be J Powell’s term is up

10:33

in May 2026 obviously the next president

10:35

will get to select the next Fed chair

10:37

that matters for the strength of the

10:39

dollar that matters for the global

10:40

economy so people are paying attention

10:42

here on the election for a range of

10:44

reasons I would say First Trade policy

10:46

second looking at the future of the

10:47

dollar and third what does it mean for

10:49

multilateralism more broadly will the US

10:52

be invested in these institutions going

10:54

forward the US and the UK and Europe

10:56

founded these institutions 80 years ago

10:58

what will the US commitment be to the

11:00

IMF and World Main going forward the

11:02

election may be determinative of that

11:03

going as well there are quite a few

11:07

differences between the candidates uh uh

11:10

trade and tariff policy being one of

11:11

them but they do have overlaps even

11:14

though let’s say Donald Trump wants more

11:16

broad-based tariffs camea Harris wants

11:18

more targeted ones but neither of them

11:20

really do seem to be advancing the trade

11:23

liberalization agenda so to speak how do

11:26

you think that could change the work of

11:27

the IMF well certainly

11:29

you know trade is talked about very

11:31

differently than even it was a decade

11:33

ago if you think of the presidential

11:35

debate between vice president Harris and

11:36

former president Trump tariffs started

11:38

the debate and tariffs ended the debate

11:40

you wouldn’t have seen that 10 years ago

11:41

in a presidential debate in the United

11:43

States and in most advanced economies

11:45

around the world it’s reflective of

11:46

what’s happened over the past decade the

11:48

global pandemic supply chain shocks the

11:50

realization that we may need to trade

11:52

change our trade policies going forward

11:54

in some way and also a focus on

11:56

Industrial policies in the US and in

11:58

Europe and the UK and a way they hadn’t

11:59

before so what does that mean it means

12:02

that trade is front and center of the

12:03

agenda if you think of the managing

12:05

director’s curtain Riser speech which he

12:07

gave here a week ago trade was the

12:09

number one priority and that’s very

12:11

interesting for the IMF the old joke

12:13

about the IMF is IMF stands for it’s

12:15

mostly fiscal that’s not true anymore of

12:17

course fiscal is important but trade is

12:20

equally important now because trade

12:21

frictions can cause inflation they can

12:23

cause destabilization of economies so

12:26

that is and I think she correctly

12:27

identified that as a grown priority and

12:30

concern and you’ll hear about it

12:31

throughout the meetings this week okay

12:33

finally I have one more question how

12:36

should the global Finance community be

12:38

preparing for the next four years no

12:40

matter who becomes the US president well

12:42

I think the way to think about it is

12:44

these institutions the IMF and the World

12:46

Bank are critical if we didn’t need them

12:48

we would have to invent them under

12:50

Secretary of Treasury J Shambo was at

12:51

the Atlantic Council last week he said

12:53

if there wasn’t an IMF there would be a

12:55

giant IMF shaped vacuum in the global

12:57

economy so the question is what does

12:59

every country do not just the us we will

13:01

determine our elections we will

13:02

determine our policy but what does every

13:04

country do to invest in these

13:05

institutions going forward to make sure

13:07

they’re fit for purpose it’s the 80th

13:09

anniversary of these institutions How

13:11

does each country make sure it works for

13:13

the next 80 years it’s not about what

13:16

they did in the past it’s about what

13:17

they’ll do in the future and I think

13:18

every country in their own way has to

13:20

understand what they put in and what

13:22

they get out of multilateral economic

13:24

policy making thank you very much Josh

13:26

lipsky of the Atlantic Council thank you

0:00

it is my pleasure to give the Flor to

0:01

the president of the People’s Republic

0:03

of China

0:17

shining your Excellency President

0:20

Vladimir Putin

0:23

colleagues first of all I wish to extend

0:26

my warm congratulations on the

0:28

successful opening of this Summit

0:30

I also wish to thank President Putin and

0:33

our host Russia for the thoughtful

0:35

arrangements and warm

0:39

Hospitality confident that through our

0:42

concered

0:45

efforts this Summit will not only

0:49

illuminate the path for Corporation

0:51

within the expanded

0:52

Bri but also Mark the beginning of a new

0:55

chapter in solidarity and cooperation of

0:58

the global South

1:00

as the world enters a new period defined

1:04

by turbulence and

1:07

transformation we are confronted with

1:09

pivotal choices that will shap our

1:12

future should we allow the world to

1:14

descend into the abyss of disorder and

1:17

Chaos or should we strive to steer it

1:19

back on the past of peace and

1:22

development this reminds me of a novel

1:25

by Nikolai chishi entitled what is to be

1:30

done the protagonists unwavering

1:33

exmination and passionate Drive are

1:36

exactly the kind of willpower we need

1:40

today the more to mous our times become

1:43

the more we must stand firm at the

1:45

Forefront exhibiting tenacity

1:48

demonstrating the audacity to Pioneer

1:50

and displaying the wisdom to

1:53

adapt to jointly open up a new chapter

1:57

for the high quality development of the

1:58

greater bricks Co

2:03

operation we should build a bricks

2:05

commited to

2:07

peace and we must all act as Defenders

2:10

of common

2:12

security we humans are an indivisible

2:15

community of

2:17

security only by embracing the vision of

2:20

common comprehensive cooperative and

2:23

sustainable

2:24

security can we pave the way for

2:28

Universal Security

2:34

the Ukraine crisis still

2:36

persists and China and Brazil in

2:39

collaboration with other countries from

2:42

the global South initiated a group of

2:45

friends for peace to address the

2:48

crisis the aim is to gather more voices

2:52

advocating

2:54

peace we must uphold the three key

2:57

principles namely no expansion of the

3:00

battlefields no escalation of hos

3:02

hostilities and no funning

3:05

flames and strive for Swift deescalation

3:08

of the

3:10

situation while the humanitarian

3:12

situation in Gaza continues to

3:15

deteriorate the Flames of War have once

3:17

again been rekindled in Lebanon and

3:21

conflicts are escalating among the

3:25

parties we must promote an immediate

3:28

Seas fire and an end to the

3:31

killing we must make unremitting efforts

3:34

toward a comprehensive just and Lasting

3:37

resolution of the Palestinian

3:41

question we should build a breaks

3:44

committed to

3:45

Innovation and we must all act as

3:48

pioneers of high quality

3:51

development as the latest round of

3:53

technological Revolution and Industrial

3:55

transformation is advancing at an

3:58

accelerated speed we must key Pace was

4:00

the times and Foster New Quality

4:02

productive

4:04

forces China has recently launched a

4:08

China bricks artificial intelligence

4:11

development and cooperation

4:14

Center we are ready to deepen

4:16

cooperation on Innovation with all brick

4:19

countries to unleash the dividends of AI

4:23

development China will establish a

4:28

breaks deep SE resources International

4:31

Research

4:35

Center a China Center for corporation on

4:38

development of special economic zones in

4:40

bricks

4:44

countries a China Center for bricks

4:46

industrial

4:51

competencies bricks digital ecosystem

4:54

cooperation

4:56

Network we welcome active participation

4:59

from all interested parties to promote

5:02

the high quality upgrading of bricks

5:08

cooperation we should build a braks

5:10

committed to Green

5:11

development and we all must we must all

5:14

act as promot of sustainable

5:17

development green is the defining color

5:20

of our kind it is important that all

5:23

briak countries proactively embrace the

5:26

global trend of green and low carbon

5:28

transformation

5:30

China’s high quality production capacity

5:33

as exemplified by its manufacturing of

5:36

electric vehicles batteries and PV

5:39

products provides a significant boost to

5:42

Global GRE

5:43

development China is willing to leverage

5:46

strength to expand cooperation with

5:49

bricks countries in green Industries

5:52

clean

5:53

energy and green

5:56

Mining and promote green devel velopment

6:00

through the entire industrial

6:02

chain so as to

6:04

increase the green quo of our

6:07

cooperation and upgrade the quality of

6:10

our

6:13

development we should build the braks

6:16

committed to

6:18

Justice and we must all act as

6:21

forerunners in reforming Global

6:25

governance the international power

6:27

dynamics is undergoing profound

6:30

changes Global governance reform has

6:33

lefted behind for a long

6:35

time we should champen true

6:39

multilateralism and adhere to the vision

6:42

of global governance characterized by

6:44

extensive consultation join contribution

6:47

and shared

6:49

benefits we must ensure that Global

6:51

governance reform is Guided by the

6:53

principles of fairness Justice open

6:57

inclusiveness and increase the

6:59

representation and voice of global sales

7:03

countries the current developments make

7:06

the reform of the International

7:07

Financial architecture all the more

7:10

pressing first countries should play a

7:13

leading role in the

7:14

reform we should deepen fiscal and

7:17

financial

7:18

cooperation promote the connectivity of

7:21

our financial

7:24

infrastructure and apply high standards

7:28

of Financial Security so

7:30

the new development Bank should be

7:32

expanded and

7:33

strengthened we must ensure that the

7:35

International Financial system more

7:37

effectively reflects the changes in the

7:39

global economic

7:43

landscape we should build the breaks

7:45

committed to closer People to People

7:47

exchanges and we must all act as

7:50

advocates for harmonious coist on all

7:53

civilization R countries spos a profound

7:56

and illust illustrious historical and

7:59

cultural

8:00

heritage it is important that we promote

8:03

the spirit of inclusiveness and

8:04

harmonious coexistence among

8:07

civilizations we should enhance the

8:09

exchange of governance experiences among

8:11

VAR countries and fully harness the

8:14

untapped potential for cooperation in

8:16

areas such as education Sports and arts

8:20

so that our diverse cultures can Inspire

8:22

one another and illuminate the path

8:25

forward for

8:26

breaks last year what

8:29

I propose an Initiative for breaks

8:32

digital Education

8:35

Corporation and I’m delighted to see

8:37

that it has become a

8:41

reality China will Implement a capacity

8:44

building program for breaks digital

8:48

education we will open 10 Learning

8:51

Centers in breaks countries in the next

8:54

five years

8:59

provide training opportunities for 1,000

9:03

local education administrators teachers

9:05

and

9:07

students will be a tangible step to

9:09

deepen and strengthen peopl to- people

9:11

exchanges among bricks

9:13

countries

9:15

colleagues China is willing to work with

9:17

all brick countries to open a new

9:20

horizon in the high quality development

9:22

of Greater Bri coroporation and build a

9:25

community with a share future for

9:27

mankind together thank you

9:31

we should promote early

9:33

deescalation to pave the way for

9:36

political

9:42

settlement last

9:46

July Palestinian

9:48

factions reconciled with each other in

9:54

Beijing marking a key step towards peace

9:57

in the Middle East

10:01

we should continue to promote

10:03

comprehensive ceasefire in the Gaza

10:07

Strip and revive the two-state

10:10

solution we must stop the Flames of war

10:13

from spreading in

10:15

Lebanon and end the miserable sufferings

10:18

in Palestine and

10:24

Lebanon we should reinvigorate

10:27

development and strive for common

10:31

Prosperity the global Sal emerges for

10:35

development and prospers through

10:40

development we should make ourselves the

10:42

main driving force for common

10:45

development we should play an active and

10:48

leading role in the global economic

10:50

governance

10:52

reform make development the core of

10:55

international economic and trade agenda

11:01

since its introduction three years ago

11:04

the global development initiative has

11:06

helped make available nearly 20 billion

11:10

US of Development Fund and launched more

11:13

than 1,100

11:17

projects and recently the Global

11:20

Alliance on artificial intelligence for

11:22

industry and Manufacturing Center of

11:24

Excellence has been established in

11:27

Shanghai China will also build a world

11:31

smart Customs community

11:33

portal and the bricks Customs Center of

11:38

Excellence we welcome active

11:40

participation by all

11:45

countries we should promote together

11:47

development of all

11:50

civilizations and strive for harmony

11:52

among them diversity of civilization is

11:55

the innate quality of the world we

11:58

should be advocates for exchanges among

12:01

civilizations we should enhance

12:03

communication and dialogue and support

12:06

each other in taking the pth to

12:07

modernization suited to our respective

12:10

National

12:11

conditions the global civilization

12:13

initiative I proposed is exactly for the

12:17

purpose of building a garden of world

12:20

civilizations in which we can share and

12:22

admire the beauty of each

12:25

civilization China will coordinate with

12:27

others to form a global s

12:30

think to promote peopleo people

12:32

exchanges and experience sharing in

12:38

governance

12:42

colleagues the third plary session of

12:44

the 20th Central Committee of the

12:46

Communist Party of

12:48

china made strategic plans for further

12:51

deepening reform to advance Chinese

12:55

modernization this will provide more

12:57

opportunities for the world

13:00

last

13:02

month we held in Beijing a successful

13:05

Summit of the Forum on China Africa

13:09

cooporation and announced 10 partnership

13:13

actions for China and Africa to jointly

13:16

Advance

13:19

modernization will instill new energy

13:22

for the global South on its way toward

13:26

modernization no matter how the

13:28

international landscape

13:30

evolves we in China will always keep the

13:33

global cells in our hearts and maintain

13:36

our roots in the global

13:38

South we support more Global South

13:41

countries in joining the cause of brecks

13:45

as full members partner countries or in

13:48

the bricks plus

13:51

format so that we can combine the great

13:54

strength of the global South to build

13:56

together a community with a shared

13:58

future for

14:04

mankind I thank

14:08

president

14:10

for all the preparations for the

14:16

summit

14:19

and I congratulate on the successful

14:22

Convention of this Summit thank you

14:29

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