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today is October 23d and we having Dan steinber with us to talk about his new

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book it’s called the fall of Israel

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and he’s talking about what’s going on with Israel and the conflict in the Middle

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East the link of this book is in the description of this video you can access

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and you can buy it let’s get started with the question

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the first question then would be how do you find right now the situation of Israel when you compare it

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the Israel before October 7th and right

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now paradoxical I find it that it’s lot more complicated lot more difficult than

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perap at any time of its history when Israel has had Wars that it has

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considered to be uh Victorious triumphant like The Six Day War that was

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six days this has been going for a year and in the beginning the idea if I

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should it right and I think most people thought that the stated objective was to

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uh as prime minister Nan said uh eliminate Hamas and release the hostages

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neither has happened we have seen instead a massive number of Civilian

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victims something we’ve never seen before never uh and to my astonishment

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when I looked at all of these crisis that had happened in the Middle East where Israel has played a part from its

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independence day war and from the Palestinian perspective the nakba to the

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present and you add all the casualties wounded and killed the number of people

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that have been wounded and killed in this war is far higher this one war for

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one year uh if this continues the way it has prevailed it

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will undermine Israel’s economic Futures it has already undermined the

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very existence of too many Palestinians and U as much as I try to

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relate to the objectives that Israel has sometimes they have been valid in this

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is I don’t think that they are uh at all and may not have been so for a very long

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time we know for sure that 70% of the victims tend to be women and children

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what kind of assets are they in this war how will their demes uh enable Israel to have more

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security I simply don’t see this so I find that this is paradoxical because it leaves Israel in a very vulnerable

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position yet within Israel I think that there’s this feeling of particularly the

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past few weeks as some of the leaders of Hamas have been killed almost a sense of

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Triumph a sense of victory over coming Victory and I’m afraid that this kind of

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situation emerges almost like a parallel reality when most of the world

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international communi things in a certain way within Israel things are seen in another way and I think that one

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of the key reasons to this is and I try to argue that in the book is the role of

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the United States as a big or great enabler if you will so the long and

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short to recap I think what we’ve seen for a year now is a a war in Gaza I’m

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not sure it’s a war against Hamas I think it’s a war in Gaza we’ve seen it now extend from Gaza to Southern liano

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and even to Iran and to Yemen and to West Bank in a certain ways in a certain

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sense and this momentum shifting to other areas I think it’s a very ominous

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sign it it it reflects something that may yet to come and I’m not very

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optimistic about the that direction I think it’s a deliberate conflict

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escalation on the part of the Netanyahu cabinet and there the question then

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becomes why can this happen and I think that there are two two major reasons for it one that the Biden

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Administration uh doesn’t seem to be willing is able but not willing to subdue this kind of Devastation and then

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the uh somewhat surprising impotance of the International Community to intervene

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and to contain these atrocities and that leads a situation where the potential

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for regional escalation is steadily Rising so it’s no longer question will it happen but where when and how and

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this can be militarily are very successful as a tactic but no tactic creates peace that comes with strategy

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and tactic is based basically on on on abuse with principles of humanity if you

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will in this particular case uh where a strategy would have to be based on trust and dialogue dialogue

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Works uh and if this is missing I I don’t see the end to this of course

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there will be an end to it but it will be something very uh dark

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do you think that the main goal of the netn administration was the security of Israel or they’re looking for a bigger

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conflict in the Middle East that’s and they can easily destroy Gaza destroy West Bank

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and just send their people to these regions just capturing them because the

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way that they’re talking about Lebanon and Iran right now they want a big

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Conflict at the same time we know what has happened in Gaza we know how they were they were not capable of

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destroying Hamas they were killing civilians but right now with this

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expansion of the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran what are they looking for in

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your opinion is that all about Gaza and West

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Bank uh I think that your question presumes that there is more to

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and I tend to agree U many people particularly military observers have been concerned about the idea of multif

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front War could Israel handle it uh and I see a situation where obviously started from Gaza and it has been

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expanding and we could talk about the mileston some of which I I outlined in the book uh but I think that what is

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also happening is something very intriguing if you would have parallel conflicts and to the degree we have we

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have things going on in Israel proper we have things going on in Gaza Gaza Street

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West Bank southern Lebanon up to liary River at least and Beyond even to beut

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we see things happening in Jordan Syria Yen and so on so forth and we wonder

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what will happen in the case of Iran uh there seems to be some sort of

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tciic blueprint to this uh but the way it happens is in a sequence it started

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from from Gaza and then it’s spreading when the momentum is moving away from Gaza not all the activities but the

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momentum um we see this from the fact that the northern Gaza is now under heavy

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bombardment and I don’t think that these are military assets alone I think that from the beginning of the war there has

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been an effort to create a a an area of cussion if you will and uh that goes to

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cut the area of Gaza even smaller and smaller it’s cut by a Thousand Cuts now

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if you can handle this and then move to the next Theater of War as the military observers call it uh in a sequence it’s

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easier than waging these wars in parallel but it hasn’t happened in sequence and it hasn’t happened exactly

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in parallel it’s been a dirty war in that sense as well nanahu cabinet of

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course has said from the beginning that Israel has a right to defend itself it has a responsibility to defend itself

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that’s absolutely true both the right and the responsibility but that doesn’t seem to

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be the question really because then the the question becomes what about the

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Palestinians do they have a right and responsibility to defend themselves and I think that they do what about the

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libanese what about the uh Yen what about Iranians and so on so forth uh

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this is a very strange Str situation where it’s hard for me to see that any other country could

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do the achieve the same objectives that Israel has so far done without

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International sanctions without International intervention and that takes us back to the role of the great

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Powers the role of the United States and a few other countries there seems to be a tested subex to this if you defend

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yourself against Israel we see that the Hostile action and we will punish you and that does seem to be something that

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a credible broker would do in this kind of a situation so I don’t see this as a

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as an asset to us objectives in the Middle East it may be that in the short

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term from purely military point of view but that point of view has never created peace and that’s why I think we are

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where we are at least I argue in the book that what we see right now is the result of 50 years of failed military

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diplomacy in the region mainly by the because it has such a major influence in the area but the problems themselves go

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back to the ethnic expulsions from 19 late 1940s to the

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present who’s responsible for this failure is this is the new comes in the United

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States is the Israeli Lobby in the United States the Israeli government who

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has a lot of Leverage on the on Washington how do you find the balance of power when it comes to the Middle

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East

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that was a question I posed to myself when I started writing the book and I tried all kinds of um Pathways to reach

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an explanation by via an razor if you will

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explanation that would be concise and simple and yet comprehensive enough to give me a general idea what’s going on

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here and why is it so difficult to move ahead and why is it that things seem to be getting worse even though we’re

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talking about the countries that have got the bulk most of the US economic and military aid in the past 50 years and

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prior to that the role of Britain the role of France and other great powers in the

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region um so in the fall of Israel I went back to the idea of there being

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four major structural forces that account for a series of cumulative

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disasters in the Middle East um I call them the Great conjuncture because I don’t think that

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it’s a perfect storm um perfect storms are possible in mathematics we humans

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are imperfect so we create imperfect storms and this might be one of those but it is a Confluence of different kind

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of forces and I think that the key trigger

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in all of this has been the waves of Palestinian expulsions since the late

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1947 this precedes the state of Chris Israel and Creation in

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1948 uh whichever way one looks at this crisis one always comes back to this

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even I personally wasn’t aware of the full weight of this Factor until the

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1980s when the so-called Israeli new historians uh were able to access the

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Declassified files in Israel and take another look at the past

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history prior to that though Palestinian historians had made it very clear that

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these expulsions happened but they had been ignored to a large extent why because they didn’t have the kind of

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voice that the historians of a Sovereign Nation would have and they were considered to be partial not academic

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enough not knowledgeable enough but they had a point because they had access to people who suffered the bulk of these

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expulsions the Palestinians um on the Israeli side

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historians like beny Morris uh was able to show how critically the events of 1948 have to do

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with what goes on in the present uh the son ex-member of shinb I think Israel

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security and U um accomplished Soldier himself the son of Moses sh the first

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foreign minister of Israel used to call it the original crime these expulsions

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and and I think that one really has to go back to that far to understand what is going on here the second aspect of

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this all and if I may add with the expulsions I think really it was the work of uh uh Elan

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Pape around um 20 years ago his Works made it very clear that it was not just

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the N effect of War as Benny Morris would have it uh he pointed out that in

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war bad things happen Elan pap was able to show that there were objectives there

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were intentions there were collectives actively creating this these

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goals early on 1930s and 40s and I talk about those a lot in the

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book let’s keep in mind also what happens right now one reason why the hammering of North Gaza is escalating

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may be that there is an increasing feeling within Israel that this area

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could be of Ground Zero for new kind of Jewish settlements those that left 2005 can now

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come back certainly among the settlers this is a great hope I consider it something very

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different now second second aspect of the great K juncture if you will would be the

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exessive expansion of these Jewish settlements in the Palestinian occupied territories uh this started already in

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the late 60s under the labor government if I may add uh and that I think was the

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one of the greatest mistakes that the laat labor government did in its first decade after The Six Day War uh my dear

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friend whose books are once translated uh amamos the great novelist called them

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the neo-nazis already in 1967 and there were others who saw quite clearly where this would take people uh

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y de the daughter of General mhan whom I met around

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1973 uh and who was then already active in peace movement and later became one

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of the peace activists just as Amos o became the co-founder of peace now a

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movement that I’ve supported ever since then they saw what was coming and other Israelis as well but they couldn’t stop

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it when the government allowed it to happen there was a So-Cal eal alone plan

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that aimed still at security and the Hope was that there would be kind some

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kind of a settlement two St solution if you will but somehow that was ignored

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because on the one hand there was this talk about Alan plan but it was never taken forward by the Israelis and it had

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a lot of aspects that would have not been agreeable to many Arab countries and certainly to

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Palestinians but at least there was an effort to that D Direction things changed dramatically with the election

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of 1977 when the the liquid government what I called hard right or harsh right

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came into power now this is not your normal rightwing movement of course

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there were elements of free trade free markets and so on so forth and they had

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in some areas certain points the labor government had allowed too many monopolies not enough competition not

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enough market Le initiatives but these constraints were upside down when

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this government came in this cabinet came in by uh what we saw was on the one hand

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the rights of neoconservative economic policies but on the other hand very

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aggressive statel effort to support these uh Jewish settlements so much so

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that in the early 1980s some people like the deputy mayor of Jerusalem at the

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time Ben Vista said that have we reached the point of irreversibility are there

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so many settlers in the West Bank that we can no longer reverse the course of

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history we have to live with this the reality is that those settlements could be removed they been removed in 2005

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they could remove could be removed now that’s a political issue not a military

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issue they are a hindrance to peace um Israeli organizations think tanks like

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mad have shown how so much of the government budget goes to subsidizing

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the settlements and the settlers and so little actually to Israeli protection it has turned upside down

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this relationship which is very dangerous to Israel what has made this I think still more problematic is the rise

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of Israeli far right in the last elections 2022 in the

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fall now when I protested these settler movements those were gim Mal

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uh site in 1974 1975 when they were created but at the time there were 3 to

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4,000 settlers I believe now settlers claim that including uh

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Jerusalem there might be more than 800,000 and that’s not far from the truth so there is this Messianic far

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right now in the government uh in the book I argue that there it’s a bit of a situation like you

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let the foxes into the hen house and you look what happens next well we know what

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happens next the people that were considered to be criminals if not

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criminals quas criminals still decade two or three ago are now making

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decisions administrative decisions about the fate of the settlements this has led

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to anti-arab programs which I find are not that different from those which conducted against the Jews more than a

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century ago and I’m not alone this there are Israeli generals who agree on it and

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I have been on the record on that uh and uh there are Israeli leaders ex leaders

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of mad tamy paroro in the Forefront who have argued that Israel is constrained

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by apide rule in the occupied territories so the question is what are you going to do about it I feel that the

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second Factor the aggressive expansion of Jewish settlements has led to a situation where these areas are now

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being effectively annexed into Israel amid the fog of War this started

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really taking an very different direction faster Direction in early summer through administrative measures

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uh particularly by Minister ostrich the third element in this great conjuncture

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is half a century of failed American diplomacy in the Middle East and what I try to show in the book is how the ties

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between the US and Israel have moved through the four stages through hedging

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uh and choosing sides partnership and the symbiotic ties now it’s often being said that well

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Truman is the first to recognize Israel but not true it was Stalin Truman did it

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de facto but never didur it took a year to get to that point Stalin did both immediately almost overnight and the

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reason is that Israel was closer to those egalitarian ideas in the very beginning it also got its arm from

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Eastern Europe Czechoslovakia mainly thereafter from France uh only later us

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comes into play in the mid to late 60s so there was a lot of hedging and one

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reason was that Americans were very uneasy with the idea of um the kind of a two-state

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solution that would create constant Bloodshed CIA did the major study around

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1947 48 where they said that the creation of Israel or unilateral Declaration of Israel might lead to a

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situation of long range disaster and Marshall and many other

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major influential authorities of American foreign policy they strongly for the idea that there should be a

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different kind of solution Truman gave in he wanted to have the Jewish vote the

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cause of the Middle East at the time uh was such that uh the constituency on the

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Arab side was minimal and also the oil interests were not very strong in the US in that regard that they could have

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changed his way of looking at things and the security state was being created in the us at the time as

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well so the relationship moves to choosing sides then that moves to strategic partnership

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by Reagan and or Nixon and rean 70s and 80s I think part of the reason was actually the fact that Israel was in

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deep trouble 19703 during the OM kipur War and what happened behind the faade

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was nuclear mobilization and perhaps one consideration that President Nixon had for the flow of arms quickly to Israel

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was a fear what Israelis might do if they perceive this to be an existential challenge just like today there’s this

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consideration of Iran for all the wrong reasons I believe so in any case we’re

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moving to the Strategic partnership and then by ’90s and thereafter particularly

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with President Bush into basically symbiotic ties and these ties have just got deeper and deeper from

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from uh Bush to Obama and to Trump and

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Biden this term Ironclad Ties That here again and again reflects that in the

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book I argue that there are Ties That Bind but I don’t think these are that kind of ties these are Ties That blind

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because it’s not good for the US foreign policy and it’s not good for Israeli security Israel is giving up its

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sovereignty this way and there are many Israeli generals who are concerned about this who makes the decision of

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interceptors and what they do and when they do it and how they do it when missiles appear it may no longer happen

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in Israel it may happen in Pentagon and there are a lot of consequences from

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this and what is new also here is that there were a lot of atrocities until now

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there was Sabra sha during the libanese war 1982 I protested against this amazos did

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so y did so proli the Holocaust Survivor whose books I was promoting at the time

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did so he said um and I always felt that this quote was very important it’s so

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important to me as well he said that I feel great emotional Affinity with Israel but not with this Israel not with

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the Israel of and this kind of activities that Israel has now engaged in for all kinds

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of reasons have taken also things to a point where us is

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complicit to a degree to what Israel has done and this involves genocidal atroc

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atrocities and finally that takes us to the fourth point of this great

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conjuncture and I’m s sorry about the monologue but I feel strongly about these four factors the fourth one is

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America’s massive military aid to Israel $18 billion doar in the past year alone

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and I can’t help but wonder what if that money had been invested into building

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new school schols building new hospitals taking care of people’s welfare Social

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Security Jews uh Israeli Arabs Palestinians and so on so forth rather

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than for obliteration thinking that that creates security and that has led to a

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lot of things also within Israel in the sense that when you have so much military aid coming in then Israel can

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afford to do certain things on its own for instance its military exports in

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intensified as the aid from the US picked up it’s understandable if uh

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United States is paying for my arms to that degree then I can afford to start

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exporting mine and then you look where those arms are going U sometimes the

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ties are with advanced economies like Germany and others or Germany exports to

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Israel but Israel has also got involved with a lot of Dirty Wars uh in the 80s

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it was involved with about South Africa these are ties that are very very hard to understand with the history of Israel

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uh and they should never be there I feel so this kind of a military assistance

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has created parallel militarization within Israel and that’s why I had a subtitle for this book about degrading

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Israeli cor politics and Military and I feel this is the Rend result so you have these four factors then ethnic

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expulsions of Palestinians of settlements jsh settlements us Israeli

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military ties the way they have evolved into symbiosis and the military aid and

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these are feeding each other we cannot have an end to any or or find any

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durable solution without dealing with these four aspects together and separately whichever way we choose to

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deal with them whenever we talk about sovereignty and we talk about security I think the

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economy has a great role in all of these aspects do you think how do you find the

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Israeli economy right now you know I titled the book of the

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fall of Israel and immediately people started to speculate so what does it mean does it mean that it’s it’s a

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biblical term falling from Grace maybe partly there were some who felt that I was arguing that Israel is going

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economically bankrupt I’m certainly saying that there’s an economic fall involved here and if people AR careful a

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lot more will follow the downgrades uh that we’ve seen lately reflect what’s to

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come if this continues and still other stress the destructive impact of the perfect storm in the Middle East but

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really what I was thinking about was gunar Mido the Swedish Economist who got

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the Nobel Prize in the 70s his book from 1944 American dilemma which was really

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about the gap between the American creed of opportunity and the Ugly realities of segregation and I felt that my God in

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Israel we have something very similar these parallels clearly abound in that

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we have uh this gap between um Israel and Israeli Israeli Jews and Israeli

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Arabs we have a gap between Israel and the Palestinians especially when we look at this from GDP per capita living

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standards point of view and we certainly have a huge gap between Israeli and the Palestinians then we have a gap within

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the Palestinians between the West Bank and Gaza a huge gap part of the reason that we have this terrible situation right now

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this is not because of Palestinians it’s not because of Hamas it’s because of the blockade of a Gaza after democratic

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election 2006 so there are a lot of factors here and first of all you have these gaps

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within Israel you have gaps between the rich and the poor um and these are just

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getting worse of all the oecd economies in Israel the gap between the and the poor is worst the welfare state that

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Israelis were so proud of still in the 50s 60s 7s and for a reason I feel there

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was an effort from the start to create a safe basis for people Jews coming to

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Israel uh that’s falling apart and there was never clear idea actually whose

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welfare state it really was if Israel be the secular Democratic State as I think

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most labor people believe from the very start it didn’t happen effectively

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because the Israeli Arabs lived under military rule for 20 years until the end of the 60s and even today and even

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thereafter after 1967 1968 you can make a case of of segmentation differenti

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differentiation discrimination even segregation in certain times and certain

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periods and so on so forth but when you look at the Israeli econom econ omy um I

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think that there was a great choice that was made in 1950s and I talk about it in the last

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chapter of the book um then for a moment of time Moses shared the first foreign minister of

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Israel became the PM the Prime Minister now he had paid attention to the Bandon

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Conference of the emerging economies as we call them today or the third world at the time in Indonesia and he thought

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that Israel was kind of in between it wasn’t it came from the west but it was

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a colonial state but it wanted to live in peace with the Arab population that

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was his way of looking at it what it needed was peace stability development

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Regional cooperation and these initiatives that he was pushing very hard to the point of

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negotiating a peace settlement with the um Egyptian president gal ABD Naser uh

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in mid 1950s these were constantly undermined by those who felt that what

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was needed was Israeli expansion because the borders that Israel got 1948 were

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not big enough Israel wanted to have more and it wanted to have Gaza it

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wanted to have West Bank and it wanted to have part of Lebanon after the leani

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river uh some people in the K movement which was part of the parties behind

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leud wanted to have more more the greater Israel but there was just no capabilities that Israel had to go so

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far in any case those options were given up and as a result Israel had to struggle a lot

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economically had it not been the German Aid economic aid at the time I’m not entirely sure that Israel had survived

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as well as it did it was a German Aid in the 1950s and then American Aid starting

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in the 60s that made a huge difference along with the support of of Jew

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particularly American Jury and which has now taken dark turns as well so when you

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look at Israel then today where does it leave the economy today it leaves it in a very fragile place you cannot have

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this kind of war war without it having major implications you have first of all

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more than two million people displaced in Gaza you have tens of thousands

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people displaced in Lebanon who had absolutely nothing to do with the God of this crisis you can argue about the his

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B absolutely does it mean that the civilians women and children should die in Lebanon absolutely not why on Earth

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isn’t there international intervention to stop this madness this Bloodshed uh so you have These

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Blueprints to different towards a different kind of a future but they are not happening and I’m very concerned

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where it leaves Israel should the situation last another half year or so

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but let’s make no mistakes I think that nathani ala cabinet has been playing time ever since October the 7 and you

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can argue whether this war was a surprise or not I don’t think it was because ever since October the 7th

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they’ve been playing time and they’ve been trying to play time with the US election and the idea was first lean on

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the Democrats as long as they allow this cabinet to do whatever they wanted to do achieve their objectives when uh the

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Biden uh Administration started to feel very uneasy easy about this they started

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to court the Republican Congress this has been the netan habit for the past 25

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years or more and it continues right now so they know that they have a window of opportunity and that will start closing

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after the first week of November there’s still those two months before the

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transition where things are sort of in vacuum and I think that they are trying to use it so so they know that this

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cannot continue from the point of view of the economy but the Israeli debt per

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GDP is still relatively low so you can play this game if you want to but my God

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look at the price the price being that the Hamas will not end there will be

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just a new kind of Hamas maybe with a different name or the same name we don’t know the hostages they have been ignored

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almost from the very beginning the Israeli hostages and not all of them are Jews uh the Palestinians is there any

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proportion in terms of the Hamas offensive and Israeli defense which I

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call Net offense actually uh absolutely not it’s almost like a defense G mck at

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this point of time so the results are absolutely devastating for the Israeli

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economy as well and I think that they show also that Israel is far more vulnerable than people have thought the

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fact that even now these Bobs PS keep coming as hard as Hamas has been hit as

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hard as H has been hit and we know that there’s lot more still in the storage

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both in the case of Hamas especially with hisbah and far more with Iran so

35:11

the question is not whether this makes sense the question is how far the Netanyahu cabinet is willing to go

35:16

before the US election during the power transition in the US and

35:22

thereafter you mentioned October 7 do you think that the Israeli government

35:27

knew about that beforehand and they just permitted to happen because of what was

35:34

in their mind that they can continue with that concept of NAA that that they started in

35:42

1948 what was the end game in your

35:47

opinion you can argue many theories there are already what people call the

35:53

conspiracy theories and no this was a plan of the Israelis particularly the nethaniel cabinet in cooperation with

36:00

the far right and certainly it would fit with certain kind of apocalyptic tones

36:05

of this government and in the book I argue that the ties of prime minister Netanyahu go way back with this kind of

36:13

thinking and he’s not alone there was a time uh a period of time in the early

36:18

spring when the Biden Administration clearly was signaling that perhaps it

36:24

would be easier to deal with the somebody else representing the center right or or the conservative such as

36:30

Benny guns he also has his other foot very close to this farri people same

36:36

goes for naali Bennett and so on so forth so you can argue for these conspiracy theories I’m not going to go

36:42

there you can also make an argument that there’s a lot of uh unprofessional

36:48

conduct here that people didn’t take seriously certain signals and so on so forth that argument I think you can make

36:56

but it doesn’t follow or if that was all there was then we should have seen a police action against Hamas targeted and

37:04

highly focused uh attacks only against the Assassins efforts to really release

37:11

the hostages when the negoti began months and months ago this did not

37:16

happen so where does it leave one let me take a step back 50 years and

37:22

then come to the present I’ll go back only very briefly one argument that that used to

37:27

Stun Me in the early’ 70s and made me a supporter of the peace movement was that

37:34

with the fellow students at the time I would say that why on Earth wouldn’t Israel not talk with fat

37:43

why on Earth wouldn’t Israel not talk with yapat and the argument was always

37:48

oh you cannot do that he has dirty hands he has blood in his hands he’s a

37:53

terrorist and then I would of course make the argument uh knowing that it would people even more you know that one

38:00

man’s terrorist another man’s freedom fighter and what if you were a Palestinian would you not fight for your

38:06

rights would you not start our struggle if you felt that nothing else is really working here and as terrible as it is

38:13

would you not start assassinations my God and those arguments were quickly

38:19

buried then the idea that you cannot talk with a terrorist and then they asked what I think about it and I said

38:25

well you can do that but then next you will have to talk with pfp whose line at the time was a bit

38:32

more radical and then if you refuse to talk with arfad and pflp you will have

38:38

to talk with pdlp there will be a still more radical side and if you refuse to talk with them

38:45

perhaps you would have to talk with Abu nalo who was the the bad guy of parex salance in

38:51

1980s and that’s how I think we ended with Hamas the Israelite refusal to talk

38:57

now when Hamas comes along the argument was again oh we can’t talk peace with them they engage in suicide attacks they

39:04

did not in the very beginning to do that they tried other means and I haven’t

39:09

forgotten the fact that Hamas leaders 19969 1997 signaled willingness to talk

39:16

Bas they signaled it and they were pragmatic in that regard of course they would negotiate for more why would they

39:24

renounce their objective of destroying Israel until you talk in the in in

39:32

negotiations uh several ex-leaders of mad have made the same argument why

39:37

would we ask Hamas to go so far when we didn’t ask that even from fat we didn’t

39:43

ask them to recognize us immediately we wanted to talk and let’s not also forget

39:48

the fact that when the peace process began it did not begin with President Clinton there Arafat here Robin and

39:55

Paris here no it started in a it almost happened behind the back of the United States to a point between the

40:02

Israelis and Palestinians even with all the limitations of the two State solution there was that effort at least

40:09

that direction so what I’m trying to say here that perhaps there has been this

40:15

unwillingness to talk peace for a very long time and in my book in the last

40:20

chapter I argue that this may go back to 1948 47 that was the first time when un had

40:27

it first un had just been created few months thereafter they had their first

40:32

intermediator Swedish count F bernot and he suggested a lot of things

40:40

but he was also very concerned about the Palestinians and his argument was that in war all kinds of things may happen am

40:47

made hostilities but we should ensure that Palestinians who left their homes can come back and then build and during

40:52

peace on that a lot of Israelis at the time didn’t like it particularly those who

40:58

represented the stern group they had him assassinated the person one of the

41:05

persons who ordered the hit if you will the assassination wasak Shamir who

41:10

became the PM of Israel after begin and who was sort of a mentor and rival of

41:16

Netanyahu prior to him and borans the first PM of Israel

41:23

his bodyguard in the end of his life was yahoshua kohen who was the Assassin of f

41:28

bernad do so from very early days there has been unwillingness of some Israelis

41:33

certainly not all of Israelis I think that most Israelis given a chance would want to have peace but they led by the

41:39

government who doesn’t want it and the government doesn’t want it because us and International Community

41:45

is not pressing it and that’s why I have this situation so where does it leave it us with October the 7 um I started

41:54

writing an essay two or three days before October the 7 arguing that we are

41:59

in for an explosion in the Middle East it’s not because I’m a prophet it’s not because I saw this coming but it was the

42:06

50 year anniversary of yamur war and if I was Palestinian if I was Hamas I

42:13

wouldn’t let that day go by without some sort of a strong response so I thought

42:18

something might happen there uh soon thereafter uh CNBC contacted me

42:24

contacted uh yam Brer from the a Asia group and Bremer said a lot of people

42:30

said at the time that this is isra’s 911 and few hours after October the 7th

42:38

we heard it from every tube to the degree that I couldn’t help but Wonder

42:43

did somebody decide that we should talk about 911 here or not there are

42:48

different interpretations after all or maybe I’m just wrong because I felt that

42:55

there there lot of characteristics to this offense but it certainly did not come out of the blue it was a logical result of 50 years

43:02

of failed military policies it wasn’t just a time bul it was about to explode

43:07

and now it has been exploding for a year so what is the argument behind

43:13

this it is that right after this attack October the 7 it became very quickly

43:19

known and then the information increased within a week or two that Israeli borders soldiers had been signs of an

43:26

impending attack for months perhaps almost a year even CNN had a quite good piece about this couple of weeks after

43:33

after the fact and they had warned about this again and again and again

43:39

particularly in the weeks prior to the attack they had seen even people

43:44

preparing to use paragliders they had seen people trying to uh use tunnels

43:50

they had seen people coming very close to the Border walls they had been people rushing driving bikes I mean what do you

43:58

need uh you don’t have to be Marxist you have to be Gro Marxist in this case if it works like a duck talks like a duck

44:05

Perhaps it is a duck so why was this information not taken seriously there

44:11

are administrative reasons personal decisions that were made few months before year or two before procedures and

44:18

so forth maybe those explain it I also think that the Border Police were two

44:25

things they were minor off and they’re a female and Israelis like many others

44:32

tend to think that well girls say this perhaps the girls that are in the Border

44:38

they they you know they inflate things but the net effect was the following most of the women who were in The Border

44:44

were killed only few survived and those are the ones who were quickly interviewed by the Israeli TV you know

44:51

what surprised me the most when these interviews were on why on Earth were they on immediately on on the

44:58

international networks why it has taken for months and months I noticed that Spiegel had

45:05

recently a story about this it’s great but you know a few months have gone by few moons have gone by as well so there

45:13

was something in about the international media that played down this aspect all

45:18

the focus was on the Israeli tragedy and I have absolutely nothing against it I

45:24

think it’s right and I think that the victims and their families should have a say I think they should have more of a

45:30

say but the moment the moment those attacks targeted

45:36

Palestinians so should they have been interviewed and not just those who were

45:41

American Palestinian or American Jewish their fate was terrible and tragic and

45:46

should be talked about but they were people from other countries uh aren’t

45:51

they human beings as well International media totally failed in this and as a

45:57

result I think people are only now becoming beginning to understand what this means and it’s not just these um

46:04

so-called spotters Israeli soldiers who were warning again and again about this

46:09

but there was also the issue of so-called Gaza envelope these are the Israeli communities

46:15

surrounding Gaza they were created over 1950s as military settlements then

46:21

civilians took over and they still sort of paramilitary several of them but there’s one curious thing about them uh

46:29

and the Israeli think tanks have noticed this and talked about it already 10 years uh even though were strategic

46:38

settlements that they were they the government didn’t invest adequately and

46:43

actually were reducing their investments in those even as the anger in Gaza was

46:50

increasing so you have to ask what kind of policy is this and by by the way this

46:56

happened long time before the far right uh ministers stepped into the government

47:02

this happened under nanah government’s way before so I feel that this situation

47:07

where the foxes entered the hen house is a result of all kinds of open questions

47:12

and I think that there will be an inquiry about this and I do think that in this inquiry there will be so much

47:19

International attention that Israelis may actually get it right but it will

47:24

come too late and then you start asking yourself is the idea now to create facts

47:29

on the ground that are irreversible by of time we understand the reasons for this situation and in the book I argue

47:37

that yes that’s the case that’s why we are there why we are

47:43

now where we are with these assassinations in Hamas leaders military

47:51

and political leaders and the assassination of the head of Hezbollah

47:58

Nas is Israel benefiting from these assassinations in

48:04

Europe excuse me is Israel benefiting from this yeah from these assassinations that are happening because right now in

48:10

Israel people are so happy if you remember before these assassinations Israel the

48:18

neto’s position was not that good people were against him protesting right now it

48:24

seems that this assassination assassin assassinations are boosting his

48:29

position in Israel is that is Israel benefiting from

48:34

this assassination is just about it is just about Neto and his position that he’s trying to do these things to

48:41

benefit from that how do you find it um in the short term absolutely here

48:48

is in Israel if the idea is that when you uh

48:53

kill ahead of the movement the movement disappears if if that’s logic and people believe in that logic you are benefiting

49:00

and I think that we see that in the ratings in Israel and I think that this has created a sense of empowerment even

49:07

within the cabinet and certainly nethaniel himself feels it perhaps he is

49:13

less of it when the missiles that were s liano landed very close to his own home in cesaria but there is yes this feeling

49:20

you’re absolutely right but again this is a tactic it’s not a strategy and this

49:26

is a tactic that started with the 1950s reprisals or crossb Wars as Benny Morris

49:32

used to call them or the reprisal policies uh this continued until 1967

49:37

war thereafter there was a moment of quiet transition until

49:43

1982 I think there were a lot of people who did not question within Israel

49:48

Israel’s right to respond as long it was a question of an existential war in other words you would start fighting for

49:54

your survival that at least was the argument that all changed

50:00

1982 thereafter the wars that Israel has had as far as I’m concerned are not

50:06

country State against State they are Israel against insurgents or what they

50:12

call insurgence what people elsewhere might call Freedom Fighters they are counter

50:18

Insurgency Force pars would be Algeria Vietnam and so on so forth uh and they

50:26

never well just like Iraq never ended well to the United States uh you cannot

50:32

kill an idea you cannot kill anger that has a

50:37

valid basis you cannot eliminate a dream that

50:43

exists you can certainly undermine the military capability of a movement for a

50:49

while and the fact that uh this has happened very early on and to their

50:54

degree it happened with paa is a Critic to the Tactical Genius

51:00

of Israeli military but that so-called genius relies on us

51:06

intelligence and that should make us uh cautious here do we see something here

51:13

that is beginning to be reminiscent of the proxy war in Ukraine is this a new

51:18

blueprint first Ukraine then Israel occupied territories perhaps then

51:25

Philippines Taiwan China there are a lot of uneasy parallels and there seem to be similar

51:32

elements here so in the long term I think that you have to build

51:39

peace you have to build trust uh no peace starts without trust and trust is

51:44

always a bit of a leap to the unknown this happened in Osa when Rabin was

51:51

assassinated and he was assassinated by somebody who was part of the far right

51:56

who was intrigued by rabie Mar kahane whom I also met in 1970s a militant

52:02

anti-arab anti Palestinian American Jewish rabbi who was most of the time in

52:08

prisons even meeting him was uh hard because he usually was going into the prison or coming out but I’ve never seen

52:15

anybody so full of hate uh and I knew that he would die violently as he

52:21

did this hate then becomes almost a habit and what should concern everybody here is that the cabinet that’s behind

52:28

these attacks has quite a lot of these hateful men and women and they have a

52:34

very different end game in mind and I can’t help but wonder is the idea that

52:40

you will just try to kill the next head of hisb whoever that person might be and honestly you can do so as long as us

52:49

allows it uh of course officially that is not the case President Biden

52:57

uh Secretary of State uh blinkin have for months and months said that we are

53:02

working 24 hours for a SE ceasefire uh vice president Harris has

53:09

done the same but you wonder what this means this is certainly the stated objective but at

53:16

no point of time has the flow of arms stopped fully broadscale wholesale

53:25

it simply hasn’t happened you can make an argument it has escalated normally it

53:30

has been $3.8 billion a year now we’re talking about 18 billions so somebody’s benefiting from this in the book I only

53:38

see one one major beneficiary and these are the arms contractors they are certainly injecting the US economy and

53:45

those who work for them and their shareholders W with the great great

53:51

profit margins ordinary Americans are not benefiting from this I think a third

53:56

of Americans or more hate it uh this is not good for anybody so this idea that

54:02

eliminating the heads of the resistance you are creating a lasting peace is

54:08

simply untenable why would Israel then believe in this I wonder whether whether

54:14

Netanyahu fully believes in this but he has also his own wested interest as long as he is in power he has immunity and as

54:21

long as he has immunity he will not be persecuted for the crimes

54:27

alleged crimes that he has been involved with and they are many there are

54:32

literally hundreds of of people willing to testify for this some of who have testified the other day uh documentary

54:39

on this the BB files uh came into public distribution but no network again wanted

54:45

to touch it so it had to go to a very specific private sector or distribution

54:51

so no I don’t think that this leads anywhere but if you take the mindset of

54:56

the extreme right Messianic far right they see things differently they feel I

55:02

think that um this is our opportunity God is with us God gave this

55:09

land God will take care of us of course it will mean dead and refugees that’s

55:14

very bad but this belongs to us and ultimately we will live here perhaps

55:20

people don’t understand it immediately but over time they will um only a few

55:25

days ago though the same settlers who’ve been pushing for the creation of new

55:32

settlements in Gaza were back in those borders something that we first saw in

55:37

January this year big movement there was also the ministers mrid benu and others

55:45

these foxes in the hen house as I like to call them uh they are waiting for this moment and then they think that it

55:52

might happen and then their argument will be very simple very good you want to have a two-state solution but look at

55:58

Gaza nobody’s left there’s nobody to talk with I’m sorry that’s what war is all about or

56:05

International Community could have stopped they didn’t because ultimately they are with us so Palestinians just

56:11

have to go somewhere this is what the intelligence minister in Israel in

56:16

October uh said in files that were leaked in October but those objectives

56:22

were not that different from one seen in late 1930s early 1940s with some Jewish agency leaders uh the

56:30

idea was the same hopefully a voluntary transfer of Palestinians away from the occupied territories and then take

56:38

over uh you start wondering where this leave really leaves the

56:45

region the immense Injustice to the Palestinians West Bank Gaza they men

56:52

Injustice to uh Lebanese and so on and so forth also if this

57:00

would really happen you will not have a thriving peace movement in Israel the ultra

57:06

rightwing has one but if it happens the economy will take a hit the brain drain

57:13

from Israel most of it to us is relatively speaking now highest than it

57:18

ever has been Israel’s uh Crown JS are the high-tech sector now it is not being

57:25

led by the settlers it’s not being led by people who believe that God will

57:31

guide our hand through tanks and fighter planes uh it is led by people who are

57:38

very different who believe in Universal values at least most of them who believe in peace who believe in dialogue and

57:45

they have their bests they may have a dual citizenship they may go to us they

57:50

may try to go to Europe but this is now real this is a real threat and even if not all them would move look at the

57:57

demographics the great fear of the Israelis particularly rabie Mahan far right and many others used to

58:04

be that well if this continues um my God the Arabs in Israel Israeli Arabs have a

58:12

higher birth rate than the Jews so Israel could turn majority Arab

58:17

Palestinian over time this can’t happen so they would have these very uh extreme

58:23

movements against Palestinians against Arabs in Israel but we see now something

58:29

very new that has happened in the past decade and that is the rise of the so-call khin the ultra Orthodox actually

58:36

their birth rate is now significantly higher than those of

58:41

Israeli Arabs not to mention the secular Jews and the leaders of mad have been

58:47

warning about this for quite a long time especially those who are no longer in the office including tamish

58:52

BAU that if this continues a major portion proportion of Israel

58:59

will be Harin they don’t work in high-tech they are subsidized by the state they are

59:06

subsidized because their tax revenues have been until now but look at the net effect of that the middle class has an

59:12

extraordinary burden it’s ailing it’s suffering it’s growing poor at least in

59:17

the fringes and this will expand more look at the uh the Smart Ones they may

59:24

be living the country they don’t want to live in this kind of reality now if you don’t have the tax revenues you won’t

59:29

have the subsidies for thein they depend on those they do not

59:35

want to serve in the military they want to pray to God and sometimes you see these cynical interpretations by the

59:41

secularist Jews in Israel that what does this mean half a century from now and you will have a lot of synagogues in

59:47

Israel but Israel will look very different and perhaps it will no longer be called isra now they’re stretching

59:53

the point but I think that the argument is very valid if you take a secular point of view a point of view of 10 20

59:59

30 years so even if there would be a Triumph a victory in this war it would

1:00:05

not bring bring uh military security it would not bring sustainable peace it

1:00:10

would change the very nature of Israel it will no longer be secular Democratic it will become more Jewish autocratic

1:00:17

which is something most Israelis don’t want to deal with so they are paradoxical Trends they are dialectical

1:00:23

Trends but they should make everybody very uneasy not just the Palestinians

1:00:29

not just the International Community not just Americans not just Israeli American

1:00:34

Jews not even the Jews only who would say not in my name as I would like to say but also those who remain in Israel

1:00:42

this is untenable unsustainable in so many ways I think what’s going on in the

1:00:47

United States is so important we know in the past that presidents of the United States were capable at least to say no

1:00:54

to Israel right now is just disappearing with the Biden Administration you see he lets Nel

1:01:02

does whatever he wants to do and on the other hand the public opinion in the

1:01:09

United States has drastically changed during the years do you think in your opinion when

1:01:18

would be that moment that the United States decides [Music] to make

1:01:24

a better approach toward what’s going on in Israel because as you mentioned

1:01:30

liberal Jews in Israel are isolated so in some ways and then we don’t hear from

1:01:37

them it’s all about Neto it’s all about lud party his administration people who

1:01:43

are even the the much more radical than Neto

1:01:48

benir and smot these people are running the show in Israel and the question in

1:01:55

the States is is the United States going to benefit from this situation that

1:02:02

they’re making they’re helping this Administration to be more powerful by

1:02:08

providing the them with intelligence with military aid and the way they’re supporting

1:02:14

Netanyahu in any way possible how would that benefit the United States in the

1:02:20

long term

1:02:28

um I just don’t don’t see it how it would because it’s also creating a

1:02:33

massive stress indirectly on the US economy the whole res erer of the

1:02:41

American Military and economic aid to Israel stands on a very fragile point

1:02:46

because the US debt per GDP is steadily Rising now Israel is just a small part

1:02:52

of it of course America is you know United States is a very big economy and they can do a

1:02:58

lot of things even wage Wars in several fronts need be but as a result their welfare is suffering their social

1:03:05

security is suffering so you would look at those Trends who are the uh people

1:03:11

who feel this way what kind of political actors are there that might uh be

1:03:16

proponents of this way of looking at things when I looked at Israel one of the conclusions I had in the last

1:03:22

chapter was the change can no longer come from within there was a chance for that I think in’ 70s there was there

1:03:29

were a lot of elements of that partly still in the 80s but thereafter it’s been a lot harder there was a moment of

1:03:36

time brief three to four years in the ’90s with the so-called peace process where you could have achieved a lot but

1:03:44

there was never that pressure that would have created more movement towards dialogue dialogue Works

1:03:51

between the Israelis and the Palestinians Israelis and the Arab States the US objective is a grand

1:03:59

bargain that would be mainly with the Gulf States Egypt and a few

1:04:04

others uh but it has a lot of uh implications it would also Drive China

1:04:10

out from the region China’s objectives are very different what they are looking

1:04:15

is not regime change which has been American Motors ofand since 1949 I believe in in the regime change in

1:04:23

Syria uh the Chin’s objective is economic development they believe

1:04:28

because it worked in China it could work elsewhere and I think that you can make that case because the level of Economic

1:04:33

Development there are similarities affinities in many countries in the Middle East not all of them some are

1:04:39

more advanced but many there are so the Chinese want to have that peace

1:04:47

stability development Regional cooperation objectives that Moses sharet in Israel tried to have in mid-50s they

1:04:54

could come back but not without change from without that requires the United

1:05:00

States and unfortunately I don’t see the political actors right now you would like to think that it comes from one of

1:05:06

the major parties the people in the Republican Party James Baker comes to mind who had very conservative

1:05:13

principles but who did try to push at least a two- State solution at one point of time there was Obama who really tried

1:05:20

to push it to a point that was agonizing and frustrating and yet both presidents

1:05:26

of those administrations ended up actually uh institutionalizing the

1:05:31

weapons flow towards Israel which is untenable in the long run but this will

1:05:36

happen as long as you have uh perhaps what some people call uni party in the

1:05:42

United States in other words two parties that may disagree on domestic policies but want to have bipartisan foreign

1:05:49

policies and foreign interventionism is big part of it there are an increasing

1:05:54

number of think people academic policy authorities even think tanks that have far more Nuance

1:06:01

point of view but I don’t think that they are politically influential yet I’m

1:06:07

hoping that the grassroot protest that is now happening on the Democratic side

1:06:13

to a point where it is seems to be changing some uh the platform from Biden

1:06:20

to Harris but not enough at all that this would overtime Le uh

1:06:26

impact but in the short term I doubt it will now if you look at the Trump’s time

1:06:32

or Trump Administration what they did they basically ignored the Palestinians in the Palestinian case it wasn’t

1:06:38

something worthy of of their time uh Jared Kushner uh Trump sh law who was

1:06:46

one of his advisers went on record early this year talking about uh how these

1:06:53

ethnic uh expulsions they dirty business you know they’re very dirty business but you know you could perhaps build sort of

1:07:00

a Gaza Riviera over time in this area and make a lot of money in the real estate to say those things in the middle

1:07:08

of U ethnic cleansing what I call genocidal atrocities we could spend an

1:07:14

hour talking about are they a genocide or not I feel most of the conditions may

1:07:19

be fulfilled here but there certainly are atrocities when one makes that kind of

1:07:24

statements and has been very close to these administrations you wonder what is

1:07:30

happening to human beings do we not see what’s going on here it reminds me actually the famous phrase that you saw

1:07:37

in vso ghetto uh some people talked about it there uh I think Ellie vizel

1:07:44

whom I used to see in New York couple of times he also mentioned it um there was

1:07:50

a sign on the wall and the world is silent

1:07:56

that should frighten all of us when there’s an action there’s a reaction and I think that’s what’s going

1:08:02

to happen here if the American intervention doesn’t come fast enough there will be another kind of

1:08:08

intervention and I’m not sure it’s good for anybody I personally believe that there’s room in the region for both

1:08:15

Americans and American way of doing business if you will and the Chinese way

1:08:21

of building peace through development and gradual Prosperity when people work

1:08:27

with each other invest in others countries there’s less inclination to destroy uh their houses their homes

1:08:35

that’s a lot easier to military that doesn’t look things in the long term but

1:08:40

mainly predicates everything on Military tactic and with this conflict in the

1:08:46

Middle East we’ve seen that China is changing its approach toward what’s going on in the Middle East we had the

1:08:53

new agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and later on we had china

1:09:01

bringing 14 F in Israeli fa Palestinian factions

1:09:07

together in order to make some sort of solution for what’s going on in Gaza in

1:09:13

Palestine between Israel and Palestine and with the assassination of Han it

1:09:21

seems that the Israeli government was successful in sabotaging what has been

1:09:27

done by China how do you in your opinion how do

1:09:33

they feel in China right now about what’s going on in the Middle East do they really think that it’s possible to

1:09:40

negotiate with Israelis because the way that Israelis are acting it doesn’t seem

1:09:47

that they want any sort of negotiations when you look at the assassination is

1:09:52

all about negotiations you kill somebody is a political leader of Hamas who’s not who

1:09:58

has nothing to do with what’s going on with the military part because you at at the same time you’re negotiating with

1:10:04

this guy in Qatar are they really interested in

1:10:10

negotiations if they’re not interested in negotiating who can bring some sort

1:10:15

of Sanity in their mind um I I think you make a very good

1:10:23

case in the sense that um there seems to be this unwillingness to

1:10:29

deal with negotiations and you try to downplay the role of the negotiations by

1:10:34

getting rid of the negotiators and as I argue in the book uh this is not something new if you look

1:10:42

at it as I mentioned this example that if you don’t talk with Arafat you have to talk PLO you have to talk with PDF

1:10:49

pflp then with pdlp then with Hamas something else will come along or

1:10:55

and there after still something else and there will be more resentment more anger

1:11:01

more bitterness more pain I don’t see how that can be anything good and I think that when we start seeing the

1:11:08

realities of The so-call Facts of the ground in other words we’re not talking about just 42,000 people being killed as

1:11:15

terrible as that is there are 10,000 or more who are still under the rubble there are probably tens of thousands who

1:11:21

are missing there are people who are suffering from the echoside in other

1:11:27

words the ecological equilibrium of the area has been destabilized for years

1:11:32

possibly decades to come at least four years just taking the rubble out would take maybe 10 15 20 years uh the UN came

1:11:40

up out today with the study saying that perhaps development in the region in Gaza has been taken back by seven DEC

1:11:46

seven decades so yes there seems to be this case that there’s unwillingness to

1:11:53

deal with the negotiators but look what it means uh despite the gap between the

1:11:59

Israeli negotiators and isma hania Han was on the political side of Hamas he

1:12:05

was a negotiator he was considered to be pragmatic very much in vain of his

1:12:11

predecessor um it’s an ominous Trend because when you get rid of negotiators

1:12:18

in particular who are willing to negotiate for peace there may come a point where people are less likely to do

1:12:24

so they lose all faith in negotiations for a long time Palestinians were blamed for

1:12:31

not being willing to talk about peace so then around

1:12:37

20189 we had the protest for peace in Gaza people took their guideline from

1:12:45

Gandhi a nonviolent movement and said perhaps this will work when nothing else works it didn’t many people were shot

1:12:54

many people were uh named again uh without any talks resulting so this

1:13:01

unwillingness to negotiate remains there I think that it could change overnight not from within but from

1:13:09

without if there’s International pressure particularly those who partner with Israel it would happen when they

1:13:15

press hard enough because Israel cannot do what it does alone its weapons come

1:13:21

from us Germany very small part from Italy and if few few other countries but

1:13:26

a lot of other things come from these countries as well it depends on Imports it would like to have Commodities from

1:13:32

Turkey now it’s a bit harder and so on so forth no country is an island now if you look at the Chinese point of view I

1:13:39

think that there’s a great disappointment when I’ve talked with the people on the Chinese side I think that

1:13:47

there was this proud um approach this proud stance that China has been playing

1:13:53

the role of a peacemaker in the sense that first there was this overall effort

1:13:59

to deescalate in the region not just in the Middle East but elsewhere then there was this effort through the uh

1:14:07

brri the brid and Road initiative to invest more in the area uh to bring

1:14:13

globalization to countries that missed it because of constant war and conflict

1:14:19

in the region then there was this uh special

1:14:25

RMA between Iran and Saudi Arabia which CAU many by surprise the fact that China was able to

1:14:34

match objectives on both side and bring years of of apprehension

1:14:41

resentment uh and and hostility back to the negotiating table

1:14:46

working together for a better objective and then lastly as you mentioned there was this objective of

1:14:52

unifying the Palestinian front there were I think 40 different members of the

1:14:58

Palestinian groups in Beijing when the so-called Beijing agreement or was

1:15:04

agreed upon few months in the summertime and that was a proud moment does it mean

1:15:10

that this is all over now not necessarily so Palestinian resistance or movement or parties have to be unified

1:15:19

in order to make their voice heard uh Unfortunately they both then have the leaders that have been uh dear to them

1:15:26

for such a long time but they should have the right to choose those leaders they can’t be imposed from without and I

1:15:34

think that this unfortunately has been the objective by the Netanyahu governments labor governments were a bit

1:15:39

different some of them at least but netan government us Administration talks about the reform of

1:15:45

payo and uh the reality is that until recently when you look at the ratings

1:15:52

public ratings by the Palestinian posters in the occupied territories the simple reality is that Marvin bgi was

1:15:59

the one person who was able to unify as a person these different movements he’s

1:16:04

in prison my dear friend late amazos wrote a letter to him in the prison and uh um

1:16:12

and about it was about his respect for a man who was

1:16:18

imprisoned for his convictions netanyahu’s government

1:16:24

cabinet saw o as a traitor of the country at the time uh amamos saw things very

1:16:31

differently you need unifying leaders Mar bargi is one of those who could

1:16:37

unify people who have been behind Palestinian Authority and Hamas uh there’s been a lot of talk

1:16:44

about uh Muhammad Abbas but the reality is that he’s ratings are 5 to 10% at

1:16:50

most and unfortunately not entirely because of the fault of the Palestinian Authority uh partly because of the

1:16:57

opposition that Israel and the US have left it uh there support is minimal Han

1:17:05

had a very great support as well not as much as barudi but quite a lot so these

1:17:11

were the people that the Palestinians see as their representatives they are not the people that us and Israel would

1:17:18

like to see represent Palestinians I’m not quite sure what they would be

1:17:23

perhaps some people who who originally came from Palestine are rich businessmen in the US a bit like in in the Iraq

1:17:31

fashion or who knows but this is not there’s no respect in this for the

1:17:37

popular will and there has to be that if we really are to be talk Talking seriously about the P but I don’t think

1:17:43

that the Chinese objectives have gone anywhere I think that there may be also

1:17:48

determination that the situation can get a lot worse unless it’s controlled now

1:17:54

if we have 42,000 people officially have been being killed on the Palestinian side and the reality after we find out

1:18:02

what really has happened maybe closer to 180,000 at least according to the public

1:18:07

health models by journalists like Lancet and a few others respected Western

1:18:12

journals when the realities of these massacres come to be known then there will be more willingness but then it may

1:18:19

be too late is this really the objective that’s being played out here by the

1:18:26

cabinet in in Israel I can’t believe and don’t want to believe that Biden Administration would want it or if it

1:18:33

would be a trump or Harris Administration would want it would want to deal with anything like this but the

1:18:38

fact that there hasn’t been a strong reaction unfortunately indicates that at least there is this perception of

1:18:45

resignation or ignorance letting things just happen but

1:18:51

there are no Outsiders there are no UNL onlookers in genocidal

1:18:58

atrocities just to wrap up this session in your opinion who’s capable of

1:19:03

bringing some sort of peace to the Middle East the International Community all the

1:19:10

count superpowers Russia China and Regional Powers maybe Iran turkey Saudi

1:19:17

Arabia Al together in my understanding I don’t see anything happening without the

1:19:24

United States the United States is the key here is the only if you look at the

1:19:30

attitude of the netwa administration whenever he’s talking about China Russia

1:19:36

he says that we don’t need anybody we have the United States supporting

1:19:42

us and here is the question the main question is is this possible to bring

1:19:50

any sort of Peace in the Middle East without the United States

1:19:59

um I tend to agree with uh the Assumption behind your your question you

1:20:06

know there was a seminar in Shanghai I think 2017 and I met General ikenberry there

1:20:13

he was in charge of Afghanistan at the time and he had written a very think

1:20:18

perceptive essay uh uh some months or a year before and in that article he said

1:20:26

that we cannot have a foreign policy as mean in the US that’s too much based on

1:20:32

militarization on Military diplomacy but he also pointed out referring to the

1:20:38

former leader of the head of the CIA Gates that there probably are more U uh

1:20:46

uh band leaders in military bands than us diplomats literally in other words

1:20:53

the human resource forces of Pentagon are far outweigh those of the state

1:20:59

department and he know should know he was in both he asked that

1:21:06

question uh and at the time when we be having a dinner and I told him that uh I

1:21:13

think that us is in a critical position and we can argue why it is there and how

1:21:19

it how did we come up with the status quo I think it has is able

1:21:25

to create that peace if it’s willing to do so and I think that one step towards

1:21:31

that might be the uh adequate implementation of un resolutions going

1:21:38

way back uh one by one and that this would happen in a way that the

1:21:45

settlements would taken back would they would be withdrawal and there would be a sincere

1:21:52

effort to find a resolution ution to the so-called Refugee crisis that involve

1:21:57

would involve all parties concerned and that Israel would had its

1:22:03

security guarantees and Palestinians would finally have the sovereign state that they were promised uh

1:22:10

1947 48 uh when I said that he smiled and was

1:22:20

quiet and so was I because we both knew that it was not realistic proposition

1:22:26

there are no political actors who would push this but I think that that’s really

1:22:34

needed let me put up your book again here is the book that Dan wrote this

1:22:40

year and I don’t know this year what published this year and the fall of Israel and the link to this book is in

1:22:48

the description of this video thank you so much then for being

1:22:54

with us today great pleasure to talk with you and we’re going to continue these talks I think the situation in the

1:23:02

Middle East is much more complicated we need a lot of talks to understand what’s going on in the Middle East but at then

1:23:10

thank you so much for being with thank you it was my pleasure it was absolutely my pleasure thank you pleasure