Azpiegituraz dela eta, ideia argi batzuk: Fed eta Treasury gehi lan bermea (2)

Hasierarako, ikus Job guarantee, lan bermea, berriz

Segida:

Pavlina R Tcherneva ‏@ptcherneva¹

I realized I didn’t thread it after it was done. Here is the whole thing: https://www.facebook.com/notes/pavlina-r-tcherneva/infrastructure-and-the-business-cycle/10155306125472788 … @MichaelH_Ph

2016 aza. 29

infrastructure and the business cycle²

1. infrastructure mini #twitterstorm following my convo w/ @TheStalwart today on #WDYM Link to interview here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/video…

2. We need infrastructure rain or shine. Large scale national revitalization program should have started 20 years ago!

And we don’t discontinue a bridge because the economy is in a strong expansion or b/c there’s inflation.

3. But infrastructure isn’t a good countercyclical stabilizer (CCS) to the macro-economy. It’s hard to fluctuate it against changes in GDP

4. A good CCS would respond quickly to downturns (infrastructure spending goes thru lengthy appropriations/planning process)

5. A good CCS should be as close to ‘automatic’ as possible

6. A good CCS would have preventative features: it should be effective in stopping a downturn from turning into a full-blown recession

7. Discretionary spending usually happens once recessions are WELL underway. Almost always too little and too late

8. Even if it could be made countercyclical, in US, infrast is funded by HWY Trust Fund, which ‘runs out’ of excise tax revenue in recessions

9. Trust Funds are a bad institutional practice for any essential gov’t program, including the Social Security/Medicare trust funds.

10. Prior to 1956 infrastructure was funded out of the General Fund of the US Treasury. We need to go back to that practice.

11. Fed & Treasury always coordinate 2meet govt payments. Trust Funds create illusion that govt runs out of $, over which it has a monopoly

12. Do infrastructure. But for countercyclical fiscal policy, there are better options.

13.The core problem to solve is Jobless Recoveries. B/c infrast cannot readily fluctuate, it cannot absorb the newly unemployed in downturns

14. Note the volatility in unemployment—rapid acceleration in recessions, slow decline in expansions, creating lots of long-run hidden unemp

15. We need to dampen these amplitudes in unemployment. A good countercyclical stabilizer CCS will do that.

16. Let’s design countercyclical EMPLOYMENT stabilizer. Call it the transitional job offer, #jobguarantee (#JG), #employeroflastresort

17. It’s a guarantee b/c it acts as an assurance: Did u run out of Unempl Insurance? No private sector job? We’ll guarantee one @ decent pay

18. Transitional b/c people leave in expansions for better-paid private employment / enter in recessions when they lose their jobs and UI

19. It’s voluntary. Only those who want it will take it. Involuntary unemployment is drastically reduced.

20. It’s preventative. B/c every unemployed person throws another one out of work, it stops the contagion effect from unemployment

21. It’s as ‘automatic’ as possible. It’s designed as a preparedness response: places the unemployed in jobs as they show up without delay

22. It has innumerable positive economic and social multipliers. But that’s for another #twitterstorm /END/