Job guarantee, lan bermea, berriz

Job guarantee, aka, lan bermea:

Pavlina R Tcherneva ‏@ptcherneva¹

For more on the transitional job offer, aka #jobguarantee, see this piece by @jeffspross today

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How Democrats can win back rural America²

“The simplest and most radical solution is something called a federal job guarantee: a promise to provide full-time, well-paid work to any American willing to take it on. You literally guarantee that everyone will get a job. And it’s not that outlandish — economists like Pavlina Tcherneva are already developing ideas for how the national government can disperse cash to create new employment where it is most needed. It would also act as a de facto minimum wage law, since private employers would have to compete with government offers.

The jobs created would also go a long way towards rebuilding rural communities decimated by declining health, drugs, crumbling housing and infrastructure, and overall neglect. People hired to build rail lines connecting cities to the country, for instance, would help provide rural areas with access to opportunities downtown. Those hired to rebuild and re-staff rural health services would also help improve wellness and fight drug addiction. And that’s not to mention the local government jobs that every community needs, no matter how small, like police, firefighters, and teachers.

(…)

So that’s the agenda: Return jobs to rural voters, bust up big business, and cut the big cities down to size. There are certainly other worthy policies. But the strength of this tri-part agenda, I believe, is that it speaks directly to rural Americans’ sense of decline and alienation.

Democrats, rural America just made its play. The ball is in your court.”

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2016 aza. 28

Azpiegituraz dela eta, ideia argi batzuk: Fed eta Treasury gehi lan bermea

Pavlina R Tcherneva ‏@ptcherneva³

1. infrastructure mini #twitterstorm following my convo w/ @TheStalwart today on #WDYM

2016 aza. 28

2. We need infrastructure rain or shine. We don’t discontinue a bridge because the economy is in a strong expansion or b/c there’s inflation

3. But infrastructure isn’t a good countercyclical stabilizer (CCS) to the macro-economy. It’s hard to fluctuate it against changes in GDP

4. A good CCS would respond quickly to downturns (infrastructure spending goes thru lengthy appropriations/planning process)

3. A good CCS should be as close to ‘automatic’ as possible

6. A good CCS would have preventative features: it should be effective in stopping a downturn from turning into a full-blown recession

7. Discretionary spending usually happens once recessions are WELL underway. Almost always too little and too late

8. Even if it could be made countercyclical, in US, infrast is funded by HWY Trust Fund, which ‘runs out’ of excise tax revenu in recessions

9. Trust Funds are a bad institutional practice for any essential gov’t program, including the Social Security/Medicare trust funds

10. Prior to 1956 infrastructure was funded out of the General Fund of the US Treasury. We need to go back to that practice.

11. Fed & Treasury always coordinate 2meet govt payments. Trust Funds create illusion that govt runs out of $, over which it has a monopoly

12. Do infrastructure. But for countercyclical fiscal policy, there are better options.

13. The core problem to solve is Jobless Recoveries. B/c infrast cannot readily fluctuate, it cannot absorb the newly unemployed in downturns

14. Note the volatility in unemployment—rapid acceleration in recessions, slow decline in expansions, creating lots of long-run hidden unemp

15. We need to dampen these amplitudes in unemployment. A good countercyclical stabilizer CCS will do that.

16. Let’s design countercyclical EMPLOYMENT stabilizer. Call it the transitional job offer, #jobguarantee (#JG), #employeroflastresort

17. (Falta da)

18. It’s a guarantee b/c it acts as an assurance: Did u run out of Unempl Insurance? No private sector job? We’ll guarantee one @ decent pay

19. Transitional b/c people leave in expansions for better-paid private employment / enter in recessions when they lose their jobs and UI

20. It’s voluntary. Only those who want it will take it. Involuntary unemployment is drastically reduced.

21. It’s preventative. B/c every unemployed person throws another one out of work, it stops the contagion effect from unemployment

22. It’s as ‘automatic’ as possible. It’s designed as a preparedness response: places the unemployed in jobs as they show up without delay

23. It has innumerable positive economic and social multipliers. But that’s for another #twitterstorm /END/

2016 aza. 28